Archives for March 2016

Thursday Morning! 

Good Morning! Knee to Thigh High plus SE wind swell. Some Waist High sets. Sorta Short-Boardable. Maybe a hint of Man-O-War. Lots of “Blue Sailors”. SE to SSE winds at 15-20+ with a High Tide around 2:30 PM. Better later? Tomorrow?? Next week??? We’ll see! Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

LATEST WIND SWELL FORECAST UPDATE

Here's the latest wind and swell forecast update for the near term as of 11AM. High pressure now building in behind the front decent E-NE winds have developed across the Buoys. 
East Hatteras NNE 15-20Kts
South Hatteras East 20-25Kts
Frying Pan Shoals East 15-20Kts
Grays Reef NE 15-20Kts
East Canaveral NE 10-15Kts
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Latest OPC 48HR Swell Map showing High Pressure shifting out into the East Atlantic next 24-72 Hours. With SE Return flow setting up for GOMEX and ESE  for the SE Coast and Southerly Return Flow Mid-Atlantic through NE States. For East Coasters there already is a pre existing ESE 9-10 second swell aqround 4 foot coming out of the East Atlantic North of PR so the water already moving this way. This combined with High shifting East off the Mid-Atlantic out over Bermuda and the associated winds this will allow seas to increase rather quickly.
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WIde area of seas building in ESE trade swell next 48-72 hours out in the East Atlantic pushing up from behind.2016-03-29_140942

Latest wind forecast through tonight Strong SE return flow Western GOMEX East Winds off the SE Coast. For Island followers there was some hope for you off the last storm the moved off the NE U.S. Coast you can see the NW Flow moving through Bermuda but looks like the High Shifts quickly and the ESE trades drown your NW Swell.
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Then tomorrow here comes the Southerly flow for everybody. POSSIBLE FUN SURF ALERTS setting up Florida Pan Handle beaches select locations from the Mid Atlantic through NE States.
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Then Friday little deeper Southerly Flow. will be monitoring for Low Pressure moving into the BOC (Bay of Campeche) See todays other post for more info. Pan Handlers look closely as winds turning offshore over Lousianna and moving your way. Friday PM looks good at the moment however timing remains suspect.
Fla East Coasters notice the SW wind Central Florida through NE Florida. Your shot at Possible Fun Surf Alert.2016-03-30_095059
By Saturday winds offshore for everyone.
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Little more detail for the Pan Handle. Right now current forecast for highest seas are only 5-8 feet. Based on what we are seein in now we think this may be unerdone and Double D's (Double Digit Seas) are certainly not out of the question. Notice in the wind image above the strong Southerly return developing in the YUKE Channel. Based on what the Low does remember Low Pressure allows Sea to rise High Pressure pushes down on the surface. Just Saying but it could be going off. Heres the latest swell direction forecast.2016-03-30_095900
Thats it for now stay tuned for updates.
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UPDATE ON POSSIBLE LOW COMING OUT NEAR THE BAHAMAS

Here's the latest forecast update. Many of you reading this at the moment are first time vistors to our website. We just got it back up and running after being hacked and infected with a nasty virus, Not where we want it to be yet but at least we are up and running. Special thanks to Jim Byrne for getting us to this point where we can provide you with our latest thoughts on the upcoming forecast. Over the last several days we have seen an uptick in the number of new followers to our social media feeds.Thank you and welcome aboard. Through interaction in the comment sections we are reminded of some old sayings now that seasonal change is upon us especially after what we witnessed yesterday over in the Gulf. One of those old sayings is Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta. For those who don't do social media and missed one of our many post this is what it looked like in yesterdays sattelite imagery. If you  recall in our Easter Update this past Sunday the heart shape drawn over Florida if this doesn't get your blood pumping nothing will.2016-03-29_125512
We captioned this image yesterday with 
CURRENT IR EASTERN GOMEX 
FINALLY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE HURRICANE SEASON
Alot of people think this is yelling which leads to hype. It's not it's so everyone can clearly see it and it's old school NOAA. But because of how we have all been dumbed down on the internet or maybe because you thumbed down on your phone to quickly NO WHERE DID WE SAY IT WAS A HURRICANE. To our long time followers we apologize to our new followers we ain't for everybody. No I in Hype. We do our best to provide you with the latest forecast update based on Real-Time info. Couple of the other old sayings we are reminded of yesterday and a good lead in to todays forecast update is this. Nothing in Weather is Absolute Until it Happens in Real-Time and Forecast Subject to Large Errors Forecaster Has Been Known to be Wrong Before. 

With that said

Latest NOAA TAFB 72 hour surface map now showing area of Low pressure down in the BOC (Bay of Campeche) Moving up into the Central Gulf and into the front. All though not officially in season yet rule of thumb during tropical season always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low Pressure to develop.
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Overnight model runs have switched up a bit on the eventual outcome of this energy once it crosses Florida. A couple of weeks ago when we first saw this next phase coming many of you will recall the phrase repetative pattern and some times in weather like history it repeats itself. This setup is almost identical as a few days ago. Image below March 28th
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And here's this mornnings backside look.
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Still lots of time to watch bad news after the GFS pounded us day after day with a Low crossing Florida it dropped it in the overnight. The good news after not showing it last couple of runs the EURO is back on however pushes development back a couple of days. Image at +192 for Thursday of next week. One run of many more to come.
2016-03-30_065745Certaintly looking at the pattern and the sattelite imagery all the ingredients are there. One of the things we looked at yesterday HT Waldy Smith is SST (Sea Surface Temp) around the West Gulf  and East Canaveral Bouys. They are definately warm enough now to support tropical development and likely contributed to the return of the blob in the Eastern Gomex yesterday. West Gulf Buoy water temp 80 degrees and the East Canav at 78. The other contributing factor was wind shear dropped a bit over the same area during that time allowing the clouds to bulid to higher heights.
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Once the fluff was gone you could clearly see the tropical signature of a tropical like system with the outline of a comma.
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Will we see the start of a repeat performance starting in about 72 Hours ? 
Ancient Rainbow Warrior Saying.
NEBA TINK SUM TING KNOT POSSIBLE WHEAT OUT FIRS LUKE-ING AT DA POSSE-BILLY-T
Stay Tuned for the Updates
Will be working on a near term forecast update next and should have it up later today.
High Pressure moving out into the Atlantic with increasing ESE tradewind swell.Large Area of seas 8-9 feet developing.
Most all indicator buoys already posting ESE swell 9-10 seconds around 4-5 feet so the ocean is already heading this way. Check back in a couple of hours for that update.
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Tuesday

Glassy flat this morning with little ankle biters breaking on the beach. The winds are forecast to pick tomorrow. Hopefully we’ll get some fun windchop out of it.

Tuesday Morning!

Good Morning! Un-Rideable micro swell trace. Light NW winds with a High Tide around 12:40 PM. Upcoast? This week?? Next week??? We’ll see! Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Greenback Surf Club Presents

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Greenback Surf Club first screened Free and Easy on May 24, 1969, at the Fort Lauderdale High School Auditorium. The movie has some great footage of Hawaii and Europe, and captured the beginnings of the Short Board Revolution. The footage and locales are timeless, some of the places are would look pretty much the same today……..Other places you wouldn’t recognize. It is a great movie. Slave To The Waves slide show should be off the charts. Cinema Paradiso has state of the art projectors which will do Slaves photo’s justice on the big screen. This is going to be fun. See you at movie, and in the slide show.

April 16 7:00 PM
Cinema Paradiso
505 SE 6th Street
Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Free Parking at the Courthouse Garage!

Monday Morning! 

Good Morning! Almost Ankle High- and almost Long-Boardable. SSW winds at 5-10+ with a High Tide around Noon. Upcoast? This week?? Did you see the models for next week??? Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Monday Morning! 

Good Morning! Almost Ankle High- and almost Long-Boardable. SSW winds at 5-10+ with a High Tide around Noon. Upcoast? This week?? Did you see the models for next week??? Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

HAPPY EASTER MODELS HINTING AT NEXT MAJOR SWELL EVENT

Happy Easter Everyone. Sorry for the lack of updates. Hasn't really been anything to get excited about til now. Most of you who follow us on our social feeds know we started today with an Easter Message. For those that don't we posted a wind map dated for April 5th showing an area of Low pressure developing coming out of the GOMEX and out towards the Bahamas. Often times with developing areas of Low Pressure they can resemble a heart as the winds begin to spin inwards.

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Here's the message that accompinied the image above. Take note of the outside chance for Possible Major Swell Event. The forecast is just outside of 10 days for that so lots of time to watch. Don't shoot the messenger if it doesnt happen but it looks as if these events are spaced out about 30 Days. As round dates we've had one around Feb 7th Around March 14th and then now back to April 7th so Cross U Finga.

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The GFS over the last several days has been hinting at this Low developing. Todays afternoon run has trended towards a possible Tropical/Sub Tropical System developing. And it's just not the GFS anymore. The highly famed EURO which only runs out 10 days in it's run is now on board with the GFS as it's 10 days is now in the forecast time frame. Here's the 12Z Run of the EURO at +240 (April 6th) with weak Low Pressure developing North of PR and DR.
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Heres the 12Z of the GFS for +252. Thats 12 hours later than the EURO above showing a full fledged bird. The 00Z EURO will be telling. NOW KEEP IN MIND this is a LONG WAYS OUT and although it's not important as to what one individual model run shows what is important is what they suggest.2016-03-27_125718
But wait there's more. It just not an area of Low pressure developing. It's the whole pattern. Like we said in the Easter Message above thats just the heart. Lets look at the whole body as it appears that a long swell duration event could unfold. Gunna start you off on Tuesday. The Yellow and Oranges in the image below High Pressure and Purple and Blue Low Pressure. So what you see over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in this image for Tuesday is currently whats moving NE over the Central U.S and coming out of the GOMEX towards the OBX. This is not a swell producer for the U.S. but could send a small bump towards the Islands.  It's after this storm moves up into the NATLC near the Tip of Greenland is when the door should open up as a Blocking High (Yellow and Orange over Central U.S.) moves out into the East Atlantic Thursday and Friday and remain nearly stationary. This is going to keep that small Easterly Trade Wind Swell going with a Southerly Suckup before the next frontal passage Friday or Saturday. Fun Surf Alert conditions for SE facing beaches through the Mid-Atlantic will be possible once the winds switch offshore.
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Gunna switch you to winds and Friday so the color code is different then the pressure image above. The storm that was over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland now on the Eastside of Greenland. Strong Southerly Suckup leaving Florida aimed up through Nova Scotia and High Pressure in the North Central Atlantic shifting to the East. Looks like winds go offshore for everyone on the U.S. East Coast by Saturday knocking the swell back down before what looks to be the main event.
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This next image is for Sunday showing area of Low Pressure post front developing in the Western Gomex. So in essence
We are inside of 7 days before the forecast starts to possibly verify. If we see the Low in the Western GOMEX in the next sets of back to back runs we will move inside of 5 days were confidence will begin to increase.
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Monday Low moves to North Central GOMEX.2016-03-27_201727
And then moving across North Florida on Tuesday out into the Atlantic East of Central Florida North of the Bahamas.
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There really is no sense in taking it any further than this at the moment. The Image above is 9 days and from here the models move it out a tad further East. For now stay tuned for the updates. Follow us on our Social Feeds for the Real-Time updates. If you don't use a social media platform keep an eye on the website for a fresh update over the next couple of days. Trying to get the word out that the website is operational again. Please share our post. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta 

Saturday Morning!

Good Morning! Ankle to Knee High plus SSE wind swell mix. Semi-clean and Long-Boardable. SSE winds at 5-10+ with a High Tide around 10:50 AM. Better later? Upcoast?? Tomorrow??? Keep Praying!!! Adios!