Archives for April 2016

Inside of 35 Days Official Start to 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

Sorry for lack of full updates here on DaBuh.com and our social feeds. Has not been much to talk about as small for all has set in and the forecast is not looking good at the moment. As advertised a few weeks ago "Tropical Signals Would Become Apparent in 7-10 days," here it is. We are fast approaching the time of year where the words "Monitoring for Homegrown Activity" gets used. We are now inside of 35 Days for the Official Start of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. We are also approaching time of year where we go into "Loop Mode" meaning, we don't watch models we watch satellite loops. Models can't do that, so in essence they can't see development in Real-Time. They can only forecast development within their run.

With that said here's the latest look out towards PR and Islands this morning. A Low Pressure Trough has been persisting last several days bringing PR much needed fresh rains after suffering through drought last year. Negative effect standing water increasing the likely hood of mosquito outbreak. Those with travel plans to the islands MUST research effective ways to protect themselves from mosquito bites.
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This is an early AM IR and the convection associated with the trough. Wind Shear values are high.2016-04-30_065746
In order to have Tropical Development (Not Always) Wind Shear and Upper level winds need to be favorable in the 10-20KT range. Wind shear has been decreasing off the SE U.S. Coast and East of the Bahamas last several days. Latest wind shear map showing majority of trough under 40-50KT Shear. But notice the pocket of 20KTS. Models show no development at this time and trough forecast to dissipate. We will continue to monitor until it does.2016-04-30_075745The other favored area for Homegrown Activity is the Western Gulf Bay of Campeche. Latest IR showing weak Low Pressure trying to develop along the Mexican Coast down in the Bay of C. 2016-04-30_071220Wind shear values remain high however light Blue dashed lines indicate decreasing wind shear values in knots.2016-04-30_071428
Current shear Gulf of Mexico 90Kts impossible for any type of tropical development.2016-04-30_080552
Looking at the Big Picture and the answer to why most of you are reading this, "When will we have waves" Got this question 50 times last 24 hours. That time of year unless something develops tropically small for all will continue for most. Right now only seeing signals. There is however an outside shot for small pulse from Gale that moved out from the Mid-Atlantic a day ago. Have not had time to do a buoy watch. Hopefully will have time later today so check back for update on that. The last system to give us waves is the Low that moved off the Mid-Atlantic back on the 24th. It's located far right of image if you have been following along with our forecast.
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00Z EURO showing POTENT Low moving into NE Florida on Day 5 (+120) Thursday. This could lead to heavy rains coming.2016-04-30_081803
Then on Friday wants to rapidly intensify. Not a swell producer as stiff offshore winds would develop North of OBX down into Florida. Spots in NE U.S. however shot at Surf Alert right locations.2016-04-30_082011
.With the on again off again nature of the models last several days this is a sign of model confusion. Also another sign of change of season. Thats it for now. If you don't follow us on our social media feeds you should consider creating an Instagram or Twitter account to follow us for this years Tropical Cyclone Season, even if it is the only account you follow. You can set your push notifications to get an alert each time we post Real-Time info or check daily.

Stay tuned for the next update.

Saturday Morning! 

Good Morning! Ankle High SE wind swell. Barely Long-Boardable. SE winds at 5-10+ with a Low Tide around 9:00 AM. Better later? Upcoast?? Tomorrow??? We’ll see. Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Friday Morning!

Good Morning! Un-Rideable SE surface chop. Light SE winds at 5-7+ and a Low Tide around 8:00 AM. Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Wednesday

Little ankle slappers surging on the beach this morning. Not looking too rideable until you get North of the Bahamas blockage. Looks to stay flat down south for the rest of the week/Month. The wave models are showing some swell for the middle of next week. Not sure how far south it’ll make it but it does look like or winds will be good down here if it does make it.

Tuesday Morning!

Good Morning! Ankle High SE wind swell mix. Barely Long-Boardable. Light SE winds at 5-7 with a High Tide around 11:40 AM. Bigger upcoast? Tomorrow?? This week??? We’ll see! Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Buoy Update Another GALE Forecast Mid-ATLC Next 96

Here's the latest forecast update. The swell energy South Hatteras Buoy from previous OBX Low looks to have peaked yesterday morning  at around 8 Feet 10 seconds out of the NNE down to 4 Feet 10 seconds early this morning. East Canaveral showing another shot of 10 second periods this morning around 4 Feet 10-11 seconds and near shore Canav showing 3 Feet 10 seconds. For our Island followers South Bermuda showing a nice shot of swell energy produced by Low. Buoy has increased from 1 Foot most of yesterday to just over 10 Feet this morning around 10 seconds. Latest wind forecast shows some increasing SE flow so could be a fun size bump coming. We will monitor the PR Buoy next for trends.
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On the map is another Low headed for the Mid-ATLC next 96 hours or so that could put another bump in the water.
2016-04-26_062645Latest wind forecast for Saturday showing decent shot of NE winds similar to the Low that just moved off the OBX a few days ago. There are some negatives to the current forecast track as models move this one up towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. We will be monitoring future model runs over the next 48 hours or so for changes and obviously we will track it in Real-Time this weekend as it exits the coast so stay tuned in for that. 
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Quick Look at the extended. This is a LONG WAYS OUT so lots can change between now and then. Image for next Thursday showing a decent shot at some SMALL ESE trade wind swell mixed with some Southerly Suck-up compliments of High Pressure.
2016-04-26_064041There are negatives with this as well. Image is for Saturday May 7th for WaveMasters Surf Contest Jax Bch Pier. AGAIN long ways out so lots can change but for now if this verifies looking dinky to flat for contest.
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Thats all for now. Stay tuned for the next update as we track this next incoming Low setting up this Friday.  
 

Buoy Update Latest On Low Central Atlantic

Indicator buoys have responded nicely in the overnight hours in reference to Low that setup East of the OBX last couple of days. Latest visible satellite imagery showing a well defined Low developing out in the Central Atlantic. Low previously East of OBX looks to open up today and get absorbed into the main feature COR (Center of Rotatation)2016-04-25_091507 Latest forecast position has it headed towards the cusp of lighter wind shear. Tropical Development not anticipated again just an interesting observation based on this is the same general location where Tropical Cyclone ALEX was back in January. Does not look to be a swell producer at this time however nothing in weather is guaranteed until it happens in Real-Time.
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As advertised in our previous updates South Hatteras Buoy showing 10 second periods this morning. Swell height has increased from 1 Foot WSW swell yesterday at 10:00AM to 7-8 Feet in NNE Swell 10 seconds this morning. The good news in looking at the data the winds are 5Kts and wind wave height only a foot equating to glassy rollers in the ocean
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Paul West Bermuda also showing positive trends. Swell height has increased up from 5 Feet last night to 8 Feet this morning although a tad shorter period. Winds North 15-20Kts still providing a swell push towards PR and the Islands.
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I am pushed for time this morning. Will have an afternoon update later today after the afternoon model runs come out. Stay tuned. Very tempted to call for POSSIBLE Fun Surf Alert for select locations East Florida Coast but the swell is just starting in on East Canaveral this morning showing 3 Feet out of the NNE at 10 seconds. Like last week it might have a tinge too much North. Weight and Sea.
Stay Tuned for the afternoon report.
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Monday Morning!

Good Morning! Ankle High NE wind swell. Barely Long-Boardable. NE winds at 10-15 with a High Tide around 11:00 AM. Building? Better later?? This week??? We’ll see! Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Monday

Scored some fun waist high longboard waves up in St. Lucie county this past weekend. Above photos are from Saturday and the below are from Sunday.

The marine forecast  is calling for the East winds to pick up today and a NE swell to fill in tonight. We might end up with something rideable down here tomorrow and Wednesday.

LOW East of OBX Surface Feature N Side PR

Here's the latest update on the two areas we are currently monitoring. Low Pressure East of the OBX is moving off towards the East and a dip SE is forecast and looks to become absorbed into the surface trough/feature N Side of Islands.
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Max Seas this afternoon around 4PM Report time showing 15 Feet in NNE Swell.
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Swell on the indicator buoys just switching over. Sorry for the delay in the report but we were waiting for the turn before we post. Paul West Bermuda now with NNW Winds 25-30Kts Beginning phase of swell reversal looks to have started around 9:00 AM Now showing 1 Foot NNE 11 Seconds. Will be monitoring trends for PR and Islands on possible bump coming.
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The South Hatteras Buoy North winds 15-20Kts 4 Feet out of the North.2016-04-24_155217
Latest Swell Forecast out of the TAFB showing some 8-10 second NE Periods working next 48-72. Need another 24 hours of Buoy data to see if it has any size. Will post buoy info update again tomorrow.
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Latest Wind Wave forecast next 24
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Current Wind field as of the 4:00 PM report time.
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Not much else in the forecast. Said it before say it again after this little bump that may me coming around Tuesday, select locations looks to stay small for a while unless we get a surprise. Check back tomorrow for another look at the buoy update. Stay Tuned