Archives for July 2016

Saturday Morning!

Good Morning! Calm winds and a flat ocean. Un-Rideable. Low tide around Noon. Some wind swell next week? Upcoast today??  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 Tropics??? We’ll see! Have a great day and keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios!

Friday Morning!

Good Morning! Less than ankle high SE leftovers. Un-Rideable. Upcoast??? Calm winds with a low tide around 11:10 AM. Maybe some SE wind swell next week? Tropics??  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 We’ll see. Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios!

Friday Morning!

Good Morning! Less than ankle high SE leftovers. Un-Rideable. Upcoast??? Calm winds with a low tide around 11:10 AM. Maybe some SE wind swell next week? Tropics??  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 We’ll see. Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios!

96L And NEWLY Tagged 97L INVEST Central Atlantic

UPDATES POSTED BELOW

The area we have been discussing in our previous updates laid out in yesterdays video has now become 97L INVEST out in the Central Atlantic. System is not well organized and vorticity spins are scattered. This should change next 24 hours or so as the Northern Extension catches up with Main Wave Axis and comes out of SAL. Thats the lighter shade of Grey upper right hand portion of the image.2016-07-28_173009
Latest out of NOAA OPC showing Low Pressure lifting out of the Carib into the Bahamas off the North Cuban Coast next 96 hours. Keep in mind this is a single image and will change by tomorrow. Latest model trends have been towards the West towards the GOMEX as weak tropical energy vs previous up the FLA Coast. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY as far as development. Once the system gets closer to 60 and out of the influence of SAL land interaction could become a factor with the high mountainous terrain of the islands. Said it before say it again could go the first week of August with no tropical development. So for the non mariners and non surfers checking in, check back tomorrow for updates our follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates.
2016-07-28_180549Latest 72 hour wind wave out of the National Hurricane Center. We talked about this in yesterdays video update. NHC now showing double digit seas building into 10 Feet North of PR. The last ESE swell we called a week ago seas maxed at 8 feet so a little more energy looks like this go around.2016-07-28_181953Latest Swell forecast trending on some 10 second plus ESE Swell. Image is for Monday Select locations could see surf start to increase with bulk of swell filling in on Tuesday. This also can change with changes to what looks to be a weak system.2016-07-28_131304Heres the latest GFS showing 97L as just a area of disturbed weather weak Low Pressure over PR next 48-72 hours. Here’s that nice ESE fetch opening up we talked about yesterday. The 1012 MB Low SW of the Cape Verdes is 96L INVEST. Models really not all that excited about it either. We will be watching to see if this will but an extra pulse of ESE in the water as it moves off towards the W but thats a nice fetch stretching from the East Atlantic if we can get 96L to develop or tighten up a bit good shot at some groundswell as the motion in the ocean already headed this way.2016-07-28_183441
Thats it for now. just wanted to post up a quick update. 97L is just starting to work its way into the bottom right hand portion of the screen.

QUICK UPDATE 97L INVEST
EFFECTIVE 5:30 AM EST

No real ¬†changes overnight to our forecast. Main Wave Axis becoming better defined. We continue to monitor Northern Extension currently trapped under moderate to strong SAL. Wind Shear also remains ¬†unfavorable for any significant development. The loop above is current. Rule of thumb when watching loops on this site. Refresh if you leave the tab open for updates. ALWAYS verify date and time stamp located in the black bar to ensure current imagery.2016-07-29_050628Latest look at SAL. As you can see tough road ahead. However, once passed the 60 line SAL no longer becomes an issue. Wind shear does. Just because SAL is present doesn’t mean that there’s no spin in the atmosphere. The Northern Extension is heading for a break in SAL. Also if convection begins to increase and the atmosphere moistens SAL becomes the lesser of two evils.¬†2016-07-29_051603
The other is shear. Models continue to show no real development of 96 however this doesnt mean it wont have an effect on marine conditions. No change in that regards to the above call start of this post.2016-07-29_051921
On a side note for those starving up in the Mid-Atlantic through NE a little glimmer of hope. We actually saw this the other day. Mentioned it to a follower on Insta. This is also another sign that the season is progressing with Low Pressure development coming from a frontal boundary. Image is for Wednesday. Not sure how much NE swell will be generated. For Florida Boys here comes possible Surf Alert. NE mixing with ESE from the other invest 96L. If it doesn’t happen don’t shoot the messenger.
2016-07-29_040516Notice the time stamp in the above image. Whoa Oh, AMBER is the color of your energy.

Stay tuned !!! Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates

Thursday Morning!

Good Morning! More small wind swell mix. Ankle high plus and sorta Long-Boardable. Go! ESE winds at 5-10+ with a low tide around 10:00 AM. Better later? Tomorrow?? Upcoast??? We’ll see. Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Wednesday Morning!

Good Morning! Ankle high plus East wind swell. Go! It’s summer! Low tidey and sorta Long-Boardable. East winds at 5-10+ with a low tide around 9:00 AM. Better later? Tomorrow?? Upcoast??? Maybe! We’ll see! Keep Praying!!! Adios!  

    
    
    
   

Update on Another Round ESE Swell Repeat Performance

We are now just inside of 5 Days in closing out July of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. It is an almost certainty the month will end Tropical Cyclone free. The only area that has a shot in the near term looks to be over in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact an area of Low Pressure developed over Louisiana last 24 hours helping to increase some Southerly Fetch with surf increasing over in the Florida Pan Handle Beaches today. Whats over Cuba back towards PR is moving off towards the WNW and is just something to keep an eye on. Models show no tropical development from this at the moment but as we’ve been posting in our social feeds, pattern is known to increase chances of tropical activity. Had that Low over LA been over open water there may have been a chance for something to try and spin up.2016-07-26_164315Here’s this afternoons look over Afrika. This is the closest to an Afrikan Wave train season to date. A few models are hinting at development in about a week or so. Ironically the GFS and EURO are not favoring it at the moment.2016-07-26_173058The problem is lots of dry air in the MDR due to a heavy layer of SAL that moved into the East Atlantic a few days ago. But as you can see a more moist environment is heading this way into the Atlantic from Afrika. As we get into the upcoming surf forecast what you see over PR and NE of PR in the image below is the 1st part of a 2 part series.2016-07-26_165748SAL is running its cycle and is beginning to lessen in association with moist air moving in. Just because theres no clouds doesn’t mean there’s no spin in the atmosphere.2016-07-26_180108
For those who followed our last forecast and our call on repeat performance coming up this the same pattern that gave us our last fun run of waves. This morning we eyeballed a piece of the Northern Ext of a Westward moving Tropical Wave over PR. Similar to last time but this mornings PR buoy obs only indicated some minor gust just above 25Kts. Last time buoy logged some gust to 40.2016-07-26_105215
Either way this combined with some Easterly Trade Wind flow has allowed the swell height to bump a little. As of report time 6:30 EST showing some short period East Swell about 4 feet. Up 2 feet from this morning.
2016-07-26_181614Heres what it looks like this afternoon one of the last visible’s of the day. This is heading WNW towards the GOMEX behind what you saw in the Water Vape over Western Cuba above. This could lead to a minor East Florida Bump Central Florida up Thursday or Friday before main event. Buoy Watch now in effect so stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time info.2016-07-26_182205The main event will be on the backside of the Tropical Wave traveling through the Central Atlantic. Latest 72 hour surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. As like last time we will be watching for the Northern Extension to break off main wave axis and possibly move into the Bahamas. Seas increasing behind the wave 6-8 Feet heading into the weekend. Time distance travel is about 3-4 days so should start to see swell showing up around the first of the week. Will start to dial the timing in as this week progresses but for right now looks like another solid round of surf coming in ESE trade Swell.2016-07-26_182806Latest wind forecast for Friday. The hump and orange shading NE of the VI is the N-Ext of the wave with a patch of 20-25Kt winds with higher gust.2016-07-26_183846Then on Sunday some stronger ESE fetch working its way into the Bahamas.2016-07-26_184728We are gonna leave it here for now for this forecast update. We need to give the waves moving off Afrika a chance to get over open water to see how much dust gets cleared from the air.
Stay tuned

 

Tuesday Morning!

Good Morning! Ankle High SE wind swell mix. Low Tidey and barely Long-Boardable. SE winds at 5-10+ with a low tide around 8:00 AM. Better here later? Upcoast now?? Tomorrow??? We’ll see! Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Monday Morning!

Good Morning! Un-Rideable ENE wind swell trace. Less than Ankle High swell lines with the wind on it. There’s probably something upcoast to ride. ENE winds at 5-10 with a high tide around 1:20 PM. Time for a Surf Trip??? We’ll see! Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
   

Saturday

Found some knee to waist high waves in St Lucie County this morning. Fun for the log and the groms on shortboards.