Archives for October 2016

Happy Halloween!

Fun windchop out there today for you Ghouls and Gals. A little smaller than it has been but it’s also a little more manageable.

The marine forecast has us with wind and waves for the rest of the week before the winds go offshore Friday. Hopefully we’ll have something clean to ride Friday morning!

Here’s a few shots from yesterday with the SFLA crew. Real tough to surf wind slop in costume but we did manage to get a few.

Here’s some from last Friday

Thursday

Big windchop on tap this morning pretty much throughout South Florida. If you can find a little shelter from the wind and a good sandbar you should score a fun session.

Marine forecast is calling for these Gale Force winds to hold thru the day and then start backing off tomorrow. Looks like the winds will stay in the 20 knot range for the next few day tho. Should be fun windchop right on thru the weekend!

Sunday

Little knee high swell in the water this morning in Central PBC. Just big enough to get some slides on the log…Kinda.

The marine forecast is looking good for windchop this coming week. Looks to start off small and build throughout the week. If the forecast holds we should have some big power chop starting Wednesday and lasting a few days!

Here’s a few shots from yesterday in Central PBC.

 

November to Remember ?

Wow how bout that surf alert yesterday. If you saw our last video update posted 4 days ago on U GOT TUBED then you did exactly that yesterday at standout spots here at Backdoor NE Florida. It was our first paddle since MATH-YOO and boy has the sand shifted. Felt really good to have a clean wave to do full roundhouse cutty’s on a 8’6 CC Rider with Sunshine on the board.

Here comes the next Surf Alert setting up. Like history sometimes in weather the pattern repeats itself and this is the time of year that this can happen. It wont be long now before the words OBX LOW coming will be used. 99L INVEST is now gone and it looks like 90L and Possibly 91L INVEST are coming in to replace in the upcoming forecast period hopefully with repeat performance with larger conditions.
This is the 00Z GFS for next Saturday (inside of 7 days) setting up possibly the start to “November to Remember” as Low pressure moves up out of the Bahamas. Pretty much exactly what we just went through with 99L INVEST. There are some differences between GFS and EURO so there are some uncertainties. 2016-10-22_054950
Heres a look at the Big Picture. All the players are on the board. Just need the elements to come together.2016-10-22_080353
U-TUBE Video forecast update coming later today. Will post it here so stay tuned for that update.
00Z GFS Just inside of 10 Days. Sub Tropical-Tropical Storm AHT-TOH ?
2016-10-22_070646

Monday

More waist high windchop on tap this morning for most of south Florida. A few bigger sets are coming in, but with this crazy Full Moon high tide it’s not really working at most of the sandbars. Mid-tide this afternoon could be fun.

Looks like a few more days of windchop before the winds go offshore towards the end of the week. Might be some leftover wind-swell with offshore winds Friday morning or even before dark Thursday afternoon.

Above Pics are from this morning in South PBC.

Below Pics are from  Sunday

Saturday

 

 

 

99L INVEST ? NIH-KOHL Swell Now on South Bermuda

A VIDEO UPDATE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE BOTTOM OF THE POST
TUESDAY OCT 18TH 2016

UPDATE EFFECTIVE 645 AM EST

National Hurricane Center now on the board in the 72HR surface forecast with weak low pressure 1008MB NE of the Bahamas. Forecast to retrograde back towards the coast as a possible tropical or sub tropical system (OTTO ?) lifting towards the OBX. Although it appears the system will stay off the coast strong winds high seas look to develop and lead to another battering of the coast. Large Swells from Hurricane NIH-KOHL are now starting to propagate through SW Atlantic waters which could compound the issue. National Hurricane Center 40% chance of development next 5 days.2016-10-17_050548
This system will likely become 99L INVEST next couple of days. The previous  99L invest of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone  Season grew up starting as TD #9 and eventually acquiring the name HER-MEEN. Models a week ago were suggesting low pressure (which is there this morning) lifting out of the Southern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico as a possible hurricane. Now we are in the Real-Time phase.

No HER-MEEN 2.0 at least not what we see at the moment. HOWEVER you can clearly see the pattern in which the models were picking up on indicated by the red arrows. The trend was through the YUKE Channel up to West Florida Coast. Notice the red arrows and the appearance of the 3 circles. There were a couple of back to back runs where the GFS pushed the Low across the YUKE trying for Western GOMEX however climatology does not favor. This is something we will also continue to monitor so stay tuned for updates. Models currently show NO DEVELOPMENT.2016-10-17_055144 Large Hurricane NIH-KOHL Swell showing on the South Bermuda Buoy this morning. This after a solid week of fun surf already for Island Nations compliments of MATH-YOO now his sister is coming. Hurricane NIH-KOHL as of the 5AM update still producing seas in excess 30 Feet.
South Bermuda Buoy showing solid swell (Wave Height matches Swell Height) 12 Feet around 14 seconds. Buoy jumped from around 7 Feet yesterday to 13 feet this morning. We will be monitoring for trends next 24 hours or so.
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24HR Swell Forecast2016-10-17_064531
FLORIDA SURFERS ENTERED IN SALT LIFE FLORIDA BIG WAVE CHALLENGE
POSSIBLE SURF ALERT SETTING UP.
HOWEVER IF THIS IS A NO NAME SYSTEM WILL BE ALL FOR NOT

Image is for Thursday possible OP Chores coming toward the weekend. Not alot of confidence at the moment however current forecast favoring as what could be OTTO ? lifts North towards the OBX.2016-10-17_063549
Will cut a Youtube video update today. So check this post later today for the update. Need to see the visible satellite loops this morning.
2016-10-17_064231
Stay Tuned

VIDEO UPDATE
TUES OCT 18th 2016
BEST WATCHED FULL SCREEN

Friday Morning!

Good Morning! Knee to Thigh High plus NE wind swell. Maybe a Waist High set. High Tidey- but Fish-Able! NE winds at 15-20+ with a Low Tide around 1:20 PM. Better later? Tomorrow?? Tropics??? We’ll see! Keep Praying for Surf!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Hurricane NIH-KOHL Swell Forecast

Sorry for the delay getting slammed with work. Updates may become limited.

NIH-KOHL has crossed the Island of Bermuda. If you follow us on our social feeds we are now entering the Real-Time phase of the big swell, possible top 5 Events for PR and surrounding Islands we have been advertising. With NIH-KOHL reaching Major Hurricane status, she now moves the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season into the above average category for activity. Between her and her brother Matthew they have created more than 50% of the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of the 2016 season.
NIH-KOHL forecast to move NE. The arrows in the image depicts flow. The pattern setting up is known to increase the chances of homegrown development. Models are acting funny its that time of year where it becomes hard to pick up on tropical development. Most models were showing OTTO several days ago lifting up out of the SW Caribbean but have since backed off now showing just weak low pressure. For those who followed our forecast this year you know weak low pressure known to dump copious amounts of rain #BATONROUGEFLOODS. Prayers to Da Carolinians. Puerto Rico and surrounding Islands may experience severe to heavy rains coming post NIH-KOHL as weak low pressure may be over the region in about 5 days. We will be monitoring the Southern Caribbean over the next week or so with a Roberto Duran theme NO MAS.
2016-10-13_125531
Max Seas forecast with NIH-KOHL as of report time 44 FEET2016-10-13_132931
Latest out of NOAA OPC showing seas at 12 METERS (40 FEET) South of Newfoundland next 96 Hours. So thats 44 Feet now remaining 40 Feet next 4 days + or-.2016-10-13_132644
Latest Swell forecast showing 15-18 seconds spreading out towards the East Atlantic 14-15 seconds towards the SW. And Easterly swell into the NE. There were flash of some rare 20 Plus second periods headed for the East but has since disappeared. 2016-10-13_134158As always the question becomes wind. This event primarily an Island and East Atlantic Event.

FOR PR AND ISLANDS- Winds look to remain favorable. Latest forecast showing winds to pick up out of the S/SE starting around mid of next week. Unfortunately this is the time where possible heavy rains are coming. Please pay attention to your local forecast as flash flooding and dangerous mudslides could be coming as weak low pressure may try and move through the region.

Florida Surfers- Same old story. Killer Swell NE winds. Best two days for wind at the moment look to be Monday and Tuesday light 10-15kts out of the NE. ROBBED again but still extended period ride-able surf with another shot of some more NE swell setting up middle of next week to keep it going. This would be coming from the same weak Low mentioned above.

Mid-Atlantic through NE. Prayers to our brothers and sisters of the Carolinas. Don’t even want to get started with “Matthew the Storm that Never Was” See yesterdays post on the dangers of Social Media-rology. You guys are getting the ESE side of NIH-KOHL now unclear at the moment what you got coming after as the system becomes heavily waited with SSW flow.

Trying to get back in the groove but to be honest just not feeling it after MATH-YOO
Stay Tuned for the next update.

Thursday Morning!

Good Morning! More NE wind swell! Knee to Waist High plus and Short-Boardable! NE winds at 15-20+ and a Low Tide around 12:30 PM. Better later? Tomorrow?? Tropics??? We’ll see. Keep Praying!!! Adios! 

    
    
    
 

Wednesday

Above photos are from this morning in South PBC. More size this morning but the waves had bad form. Hopefully it’ll have a little better form tomorrow.