Archives for April 2017

Models Hinting Uptick in Tropical Activity Coming

VIDEO UPDATE ADDED MAY 4th 2017

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What a fun run of surf last several days do to a combination of factors including recent Tropical Storm AR-LEEN. We always like to go back to see what we talked about in previous forecast updates. This video  ” Update Easter Swell 2017 “   was posted 10 days ago. What was described in the video update 10 days ago we just experienced in Real-Time. We followed that up with this video update 92L INVEST ?
We are now in the Real-Time phase of that update starting at around the 4:15 Mark of the video.
Latest 96HR NOAA Swell forecast picking up on 1st Signs of Poseidon in a 3 prong attack. This is coming from High Pressure stacking in backside of Bermuda and AZORE Low that has DNA from Tropical Storm AR-LEEN. 2017-04-26_083437 Eastern Carib also showing 1st signs of Poseidon this morning. Whats happening in this image is Easterly trade wind flow is pushing into the Eastern Caribbean meeting up with the Eastward moving tail end of the current front. This is a sign of North to South orientation. This can lead to tropical development over time and a key signal tropical season is here.2017-04-26_081840
The pattern that is developing over the next 10 days or so is known to produce tropical cyclones. You have the East to West flow of the ITCZ combined with Easterly trade wind flow as 1st signs Tropical Waves season is about to resume coming off Afrika. This at the same time of fronts sliding through with a North South orientation leaving both of these patterns chances at increase  in an uptick in Tropical Activity coming in the upcoming forecast.2017-04-26_070614
This is the 10 DAY EURO. Sometimes like in history weather patterns can and do repeat themselves. How I want you to think about this is the Low in the image right portion of the screen replaces what was Tropical Storm AR-LEEN (NOT suggesting its going to be another storm) and moderate to strong offshore SW flow at the same time of swell arrival time just like we just saw last could of days however this time with a Tropical Low getting sucked up out of the Caribbean be it SW or Eastern into SW Atlantic waters.2017-04-26_090606
10 Day GFS and so far good agreement as far as pattern is concerned.  2017-04-26_105542
I will say this the GFS seems to be back to its old tricks and that is developing something almost every run but pushing development all the way to the back of the run. This is why its important that you try and stay in a 10 day forecast window once the model starts hinting at development. This is the 06Z run of the GFS for 14 DAYS and it waited until the last frame for development. Something it has been doing for the last 2-3 days. For now its about pattern recognition and its there now setting up.2017-04-26_110456
Stay tuned for the video forecast update. Will post it at the top of this post. Will have more info on the next incoming swell showing in the NOAA 96HR Swell forecast image above.
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Here’s a look at this mornings OBX/MID-ATLANTIC Low we thought had a good chance of hanging on the OBX described in our video forecast update 10 days ago. Stay tuned for the updates Big Swell setting up in the extended forecast.2017-04-26_080741

92L INVEST ?

Quick Video Update Outside Chance at 92L INVEST COMING
Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates. This pattern is typical of early seasonal homegrown development.

Possible Major Swell Event Setting Up

VIDEO FORECAST UPDATE ADDED 10AM EST
MONDAY APRIL 17th 2017

Pushed for time. Youtube video forecast will be added to this post shortly. Here comes Easter Swell 2017 in the latest NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast. Seas increasing excess 30 Feet next 72 to 96HRS.2017-04-14_075307
Exciting times ahead as models show this Low or DNA from this Low hanging around over the next 10 days. Latest 96HR Surface forecast showing stationary.2017-04-14_075457 And the overnight run of the EURO at day 10. For those who saw our post on our social feeds in reference to 3 quarters 2 dimes and a nickle making a Silver Dollar here it is. Thats alot of ocean moving around. Go back to the 96HR Swell Forecast above and move it to this position in 10 days.2017-04-14_075626
Additionally we are keeping an eye on the GFS as the model continues to suggest DEEP Tropical Moisture returning to the Eastern Caribbean up coming forecast period it what would be the 3RD weak area of Low Pressure to move into the vicinity of Hispan. Potential for the seasons first torrential tropical rains coming.2017-04-14_065332
With potential heavy rains into Southern Florida.2017-04-14_073343
Although they may not get the 6-12 needed the above would start to put a dent in it.2017-04-14_081314
Stay tuned for the video update coming. Will add it to the top of this post.

Easter Swell 2017 Shift to Tropical Season Coming.

Here comes Easter Swell 2017 and another shot at PR and the Islands to what looks to be the last gasp of winter type swell before the shift back to Tropical Season. We are approaching the 50 Day mark until the Official June 1st start of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. If you factor in the trends over the last seven years dating back to 2010 we have seen early seasonal tropical development come in May or by the end of June. This year appears to be setting up for it as well. Here is a recap of the last 7 seasons on early seasonal development.

2010 kicked it off with a very rare June Hurricane, Hurricane AL-LEKS June 25th in the West Caribbean eventually reaching the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas.

2011 saw Tropical Storm AR-LEEN June 28th (1st name of 2017 season) down in the Bay of Campeche.

2012 with 2 named systems Tropical Storms AL-BAIR-TOE and BEHR-RIL. Both systems formed off the SE U.S. East Coast

2013 kicked off with Tropical Storm AN-DREE-UH June 5th coming off the tip of the Yucatan and moved in through NE Florida up the Eastern Seaboard followed by Tropical Storm BAIR-REE June 17th.

Skipping 14 into 2015 saw Tropical Storm AH-NA form North of the Bahamas East of the NE Florida coast on May 8th followed by BILL June 16th.

Finally 2016 with RARE January Hurricane AL-LEKS followed by BAH-NEE May 27th 2016 also forming in the vicinity of the Northern Bahamas East of the NE Florida Coast.

Fast forward to Real-Time. We are now entering the Real-Time phase of weak Low Pressure development North of Hispan next 48-72HRS. Weak Double Barrel Low forecast out near the AZORES will get some positive windswell directed at the U.S Coast.2017-04-10_080609
Latest 72HR surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing weak Low Pressure and associated surface trough North of PR.
2017-04-10_082043
For those who recall our social feed post on the signs the Trinity coming heres the 06Z GFS for April 13th. At the Last Supper was Jesus and his 12 Disciples making 13. Confirmations come in 3’s.
In the name of the Father the Son and the Holy Spirit in Jesus name we pray. Seas increasing North of PR 10-12 feet in developing Easterly wind swell. Outside chance for GALE coming.2017-04-10_093357This is the 06Z GFS for Easter Sunday April 16th. Remember rule of thumb. High Pressure stack East of OBX always leads to look out below. April 16th starts the 45 Day countdown to the official start of the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and 30 Days for the Eastern Pacific start of May 15th.
997MB East of Bermuda. Those wanting to surf PR one last time before the shift to tropical season this looks to be it.
2017-04-10_085414
Long ways out at +288 (12 Days) return of deep tropical moisture.2017-04-10_095848
Will add a forecast video update to this post shortly. Waiting on fresh set of models runs.
Stay tuned

UPDATE Possible Surf Alert Coming

This is an update to our post 3 days ago on Possible Surf Alert coming. Model trends over the last 72 hours have trended a bit weaker with Low Pressure Development North of Hispaniola. Heres this mornings visible satellite imagery with the front sweeping off the South Florida Coast. A Low Pressure Trough is forecast to develop at the end of the front. This is a similar setup as we saw a few weeks ago with 90L INVEST. Will we see 91L INVEST ? At the moment it doesn’t look like it.2017-04-07_082102Regardless this will set up a Possible Surf Alert coming for portions of the East U.S. Coast. Taking a look at this mornings Big Picture. An AZORES GALES is forecast. Right hand portion of the image. Seas increasing to near 25 Feet in positive swell production and will get some NNE Swell going in the East Atlantic.2017-04-07_080623This is the latest wind model for the EURO for next Thursday now inside of 7 days where confidence begins to increase. High Pressure Bermuda stack. For those who followed the 91L event. High Pressure stack here always leads to look out below. 2017-04-07_082823
GFS with a weaker solution same time frame. 2017-04-07_083014
So to summarize this is NNE Swell from AZORES LOW pushing into the back of Low Pressure Lifting out of the Eastern Caribbean and this should lead to some longer swell periods across the Atlantic. Image GFS April 13th.
2017-04-07_092337
We are now 55 days until the Official June 1st start of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Keep in mind since 2010 the Atlantic has seen 5 or 6 named systems with one becoming a hurricane prior to the June 1st official start, so we are getting closer to a 30 day window where we could see tropical development. The early seasonal forecast by the team at Colorado State University lead by meteorologist Philip Klotzbach  was released yesterday calling for a slightly below normal 2017 season. Subscribers are reminded that it only takes one.
Can read the forecast by CSU here. 2017-04-07_090506
Switching you back to Real-Time and a look over to Afrika this morning. All though the Cape Verde Season doesn’t get started util late August through September it wont be long until the first Tropical Waves begin to roll off through the ITCZ. Sometimes theses waves like waves on the beach come in sets. Sometimes they are clustered together sometime apart. As seen in the image below there are 3 entities along the ITCZ. This is a key indication that the season continues to progress towards Tropical Season.2017-04-07_072932
Taking a quick look at the extended. This is the GFS at Day 9 April 16th. First time in the run EURO shows weaker solution not alot of confidence at the moment but looks like period of positive swell production coming for Western Atlantic waters.2017-04-07_093147Follows us on our socials for Real-Time updates.
Stay Tuned.

Possible Surf Alert Coming 91L INVEST ?

Possible Surf Alert setting up in the extended forecast. Will take time to develop. Low pressure over the North Central U.S. will move out into the Atlantic and drop backside of Bermuda while weakening. Low Pressure located in the SW will lift NE in its wake. It is at the tail end of the front from this low we will be monitoring, along with remnant low backside of Bermuda, as it drops and retros back towards the West. These two features may combine producing a NEW Low tail end of front in about 7 days.2017-04-04_064302
Latest 48HR NOAA Surface Forecast showing GALE East of New England and moving off towards the ESE as a first phase to the process. NEW Developing GALE moving in from current SW Low.2017-04-04_064351
96HR surface showing Low currently over SW U.S. as 983MB GALE over New England. Tail End of front trying to pinch off over Cuba while Low backside of Bermuda begins in retro.2017-04-04_073507This is a long long ways out but we have just seen this last week with what became 90L INVEST. Could this be 91L INVEST coming ? For long time followers you know our saying,”Sometimes Like in History weather repeats itself. Weight and Sea

The forecast does and will always change however we are starting to get into a 7 day window of the pattern setting up in Real-Time. Overnight models have trended weaker. Yesterday was showing MAX winds 55KTS today 25-30KTS. As always one run of many more to come lots of time to watch.
Image is for Thursday April 13th.
2017-04-04_065819 Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.

Another INVEST Coming ? April Fools Swell Update

What a fun run of surf for many locations in the Atlantic all the way around the rim. Sorry for the delay in updates but my daughter was struck by a Pigmy Rattlesnake over the weekend. She is fine and did not need to have the anti-venom administered. Thanks for all the thoughts and prayers for those who follow me personally.

Latest NOAA OPC 24HR Swell forecast showing NNE swell continuing for the West Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours or so.2017-04-03_085130With the East Atlantic picking up 15-18 second WNW Swell.2017-04-03_085451
Unfortunately the WSW Flow setting up along the U.S. East Coast will hinder the NE Swell height trying to sneak pass the OBX. There is some underlying NE Swell showing on the Buoys this morning and there is an outside chance that some of the energy can make it towards the coast. South Hatteras Buoy showing 7 FEET 11 Seconds out of the NNE.
2017-04-03_090120
Big Big Ups to long time DaBuh.com follower Christopher Hong from the Florida Times Union for the heads up on the Army Corps of Engineers operation a St Augustine Buoy. Buoy showing some long period swell starting to filter in but only about a foot. We will continue to monitor this buoy for upticks in trend next 24 hours or so.
2017-04-03_085909
And for PR and Islands the South Bermuda Buoy showing positive trend moving into double digit territory. 10 Feet 13 seconds out of the NNW. Winds are out of the North 20-25Kts so positive push on the back. Surfer Joe from Puerto Rico and Rincon Surf Report putting up some nice shots of the swell yesterday.
2017-04-03_090756

Upcoming forecast another INVEST Coming ? 4-5 days ago the GFS was showing an area of Low pressure trying to develop North of the Islands and then backed off in consecutive runs. Now in the overnight the GFS along with the Euro are hinting at the return. This is the GFS for 10 days2017-04-03_072519This is at 9. The European model is trying to get there.2017-04-03_080637
Not alot of confidence as of yet but the pattern developing looks like a return of heavy rains coming for the Islands. For now its Weight and Sea.2017-04-03_075710
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DaBuh Surf Instagram, @DaDaBuh on Twitter and DaBuh on Facebook and stay tuned to the forecast. Things could get quite interesting with the pattern developing.
2017-04-03_092749