Archives for June 2017

Chances Increasing Atlantic Tropical Development

We are 2 days away from closing the books on the month of June of the 2017 Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasons. Eastern Pacific has gone one up on the Atlantic with the recent formation of Hurricane DOR-ruh. DOR-ruh becomes the first hurricane for either basin. Thus far the Atlantic has kept pace with the EPAC but will close out the month with the C name Tropical Storm SIN-dee, which is where we left off of our last website update. Decided to make an impromptu road trip with Buh-ette for her first road trip chasing Tropical Storm Swell. 1st time she surfed outside her backyard.
We are now back out in front of the forecast. Is the Atlantic’s 1st Hurricane of the season lurking ?

Special shout out to Brenda Mitchell Photography of BMP Sports.
2017-06-28_105322And Adam Hutchinson of Adam Hutchinson Photography for the Shots. This trip was right on time for Fathers Day and I couldn’t be more proud to be a father to this young Lady.2017-06-28_105656
We will be stepping up our updates over the coming week. 4th of July Holiday is clear for now.
Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates and back here at the site for the forecast.
Latest Video Update. Surfers stay tuned still trying to dial everything in.

00Z EURO Day 10
Stay Tuned

Latest on 92 and 93L INVEST Possible BRET and SIN-dee

Since our last update 2 days ago the area we have been monitoring in the Western Caribbean has now been tagged 93L INVEST. This image was from earlier this morning posted to our social feeds.2017-06-18_071953
This is the NEW surface forecast map out of the National Hurricane Center next 48HRS. It matches up well with our image above.2017-06-18_165656
National Hurricane Center 72HR forecast shows Possible BRET/SIN-dee heading for the NW Gulf of Mexico.2017-06-18_170004
This is the afternoon run of the GFS and is used as an Outlier.2017-06-18_170139Overnight tonight will be revealing as the majority of bulk energy South of the Western Cuba will pinwheel into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.2017-06-18_120711
All residents from Texas to the Florida Big Bend she closely monitor this system starting tomorrow morning. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates. We will have another video update on this system tomorrow.

Heres 92L INVEST there is the chance this could become BRET first this means if we see development in the Gulf of Mexico that system would be named SIN-dee.

Latest Forecast Video Update.

NEWLY Tagged 92L INVEST Gulf of Mexico

Heres the latest forecast update. We now have NEWLY Tagged 92L INVEST out in the East Atlantic. National Hurricane Center now giving odds of 40% next 5 days. It is of no immediate worry. However what is is the area coming out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. No designation has been given to this system as of this update despite that it is at 60% Chance of development next 5 days.2017-06-16_115822
There is lots of uncertainty with this system however things are becoming a little clearer and it does still appear headed for the Western Gulf. Regardless of name or no name weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain.

In the video below the 12Z had not run yet. So mind you what was discussed in the video was before 12Z ran. 12Z GFS trying to make it look like I know what I’m talking about.
Image is for Monday June 19th with DEEP Tropical Moisture lifting into Florida.2017-06-16_120223
Later Monday the GFS CONTINUES to try and draw a “2nd piece of energy” up to the Florida Pan Handle. As POSSIBLE Bret.
Could see Bret SIN-dee or Both2017-06-16_121301
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Heres the floater in Real-Time on 92L INVEST



Monitoring Southern Caribbean Tropical Low Development

Long week ahead as we are now in the Real-Time phase of where we left off of our last forecast video update posted 6 days ago. In it, there were several things we discussed. One, that we would be looking for a repeat performance of what we just saw with BEE-a-triz in the EPAC.

We now have 3-E, the 3rd Tropical Depression of the 2017 EPAC Season. Outside chance of seeing KAL-vin but with no matter. Weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. Heavy rains, life threatening conditions with potential for mud slide anticipated for much of Central Amerika into Mexico over the next week. Models have consistently shown, run after run, low pressure development in the Gulf of Hondura now just inside of 7 days. While the image is still, the flow is from right to left across your screen. 2017-06-12_064447
It appears the last piece of energy responsible for spin up giving rise to a possible Tropical Cyclone coming to the Western Gulf of Mexico, is the last of 3 T-Waves located in the Eastern Caribbean. Current NHC surface analysis, emphasis mine.

If you look back at the satellite image above, the T-Wave just SW of the Cape Verde Islands is separated from Eastern Caribbean T-Wave. There is another wave behind the current Afrikan Wave pushing off the West Afrikan Coast. These two waves are coming across the MDR in tandem. 2017-06-12_075718
The month of June on average, sees a Tropical Cyclone 1 every other year. 2016 saw 3, BONNIE, COLIN and DANIELLE. This coming weekend will be the 1 yr anniversary of DANIELLE and at the same time we will be watching for possible development coming out of the Carib. Sometimes weather repeats itself.

If we look at Climatology for 2nd week of June for origin points of Tropical Cyclones, the pattern is clear. When spin develops in the Gulf of Hondura, the majority of track is a straight lift through the YUKE Channel, then off to the right in a natural flow. Then notice the 3 tracks leading into the Bay of Campeche. Rarely when spin develops in the GOH, does it cross over the YUKE into the BOC.
There are two different patterns that create these tracks.

When the GFS was first hinting at Tropical Development, run after run it showed the direct lift into the Gulf through the YUKE Channel matching Climo. Then, when EURO finally came on board in the 10 day window, it started the shift to the West and to a weaker system. The EURO now has a model track into the Bay of Campeche, the other track historical shows.

The difference between the two tracks is this. The straight lifting is what we describe as a “Hooking Pattern.” It is an EPAC energy lifting North, getting sucked up and “Hooking Up” with the front, just like we saw with BEE-a-triz. The other is a Northern Extension or Center Axis of a Tropical Wave moving through the Caribbean. First creating spin in the Southern Caribbean (not always), near Costa Rica. Then “Rounding the Corner”, into the Gulf of Hondura. This typically leads to a more NW track as flow is already established from East to West then High Pressure builds into the Atlantic and pushes it the rest of the way.
Here is an example of “Hooking Pattern”.2017-06-12_085726Here’s an example of T-Wave Rounding the Corner. This now looks to be what the models are showing for possible development this coming weekend.2017-06-12_090328
Looking at this image below you can see how the contour of the land can help facilitate spin once an area of Low Pressure gets in either one of these two basins. What is also unique is the depth of the ocean in the GOH. This can provide “Deep Ocean Content” when the waters finally warm up enough to support Tropical Development.
This is the latest run of the GFS for this Sunday June 18th showing Low Pressure developing in the Gulf of Hondura. The one commonality of the models over the last 5 days or so has been Low Pressure development in this location. Going back to climatology above the odds are stacked in its favor.2017-06-12_064755
00Z EURO also Next Sunday. This is inside of 7 Days where model confidence begins to increase.2017-06-12_093719
We will leave this update right here for now. Will add a FRESH forecast video update to this post shortly, so be sure to check back for it, as our focus down wind could shift to whats coming in the 10 Day EURO. The two Tropical Waves traveling in tandem mentioned above, one may have a chance at development once past the 50/60 Long Line.
Check back for the video forecast update and our follow us on our social platforms for Real-Time Updates.

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Mid-ATLC -NE Tropics Heating Up

Possible Surf Alert coming for Mid Atlantic through New England Breaks with this Low pulling out of the Gulf. East Florida could see a decent shot coming. Have gone into a Buoy Watch. NE Winds are cranking from the Texas Tower Buoy (Off New Jersey) through the Cape. As of report time (10AM EST) Texas Tower NE 15-20Kts. Nantucket Buoy NNE Winds 20-25Kts gust to 30 and inside Boston Buoy NE 25-30Kts gust to near 35 with light NE Fetch into Cape May. There is also a GALE/Developing Storm near Newfoundland headed for the NATLC also putting a charge of NE Swell in the water.

Latest Surface Analysis NOAA OPC2017-06-06_100608
The Low coming out of the GULF is the Wild Card for East Florida. Models track it up and out of the way fairly quickly and close to the coast both negatives for swell production along with SW flow SE quad.
The further off the coast more NE Winds over the ocean and the slower it moves giving duration is one thing we will be looking at. The other wild card might be because it clears quickly it may allow more NE energy to sneak in towards Florida from GALE  that is currently East of Newfoundland in the image above.

This is the Outer Waters Marine Forecast  for South of the 31 Line. Have seen it change 10 times in two days.   2017-06-06_101637
Notice the time difference from above. 2017-06-06_102041
AMZ 111 showing some NE swell trying to pass through this zone.2017-06-06_102542
Then it looks like a possible repeat performance coming in re to Tropical Development coming to the GOMEX in the extended forecast. Go with our latest video forecast update for now. Best watched in full screen.

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Yellow X GOMEX

Sorry for the delay in a forecast update. We just want to be confident in what we post on our website when it comes to the forecast. In our last update we talked about the little background NE swell coming that gave a little bump down into Florida over the weekend. We also talked about 91E INVEST that turned into Tropical Storm BEE-a-triz down in the East Pacific. The EPAC is now up 2 to 1 over the Atlantic for the start of the 2017 season and the pattern is shaping up for a 3 to 1 advantage coming up in the extended forecast.

Also discussed were the remnants of BEE-a-triz or 2 Pieces of energy being sucked up with the front into the Western GOMEX and then off to the right in its natural progression. We are now in that Real-Time phase of where we ended our last forecast update with the 1st Yellow X of the 2017 Season for the Gulf of Mexico. There is zero chance of Tropical Development with this.
2017-06-04_105908 However this appears to be a dry run for whats to come as models picking up on a repeat performance coming in the extended that could have far different results. This mornings satellite imagery Western Gomex.2017-06-04_091401The 2nd piece of the puzzle is the main driver of this event. This is picking up whats in the GOMEX and lifting it out as this pushes off towards the East. Left to right in the image.2017-06-04_063505
These two features will draw alot of deep tropical moisture out of the GULF in through the NE U.S. in a SW to NE Flow aloft. This image is for Monday. Will likely take until Wed/Thurs to clear. Although no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated weak areas of Low pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. The rains coming will likely lead to the end of drought conditions for many locations. This will make the entire United States virtually drought free.2017-06-04_111005
Our attention will then shift to these 2 tropical Waves. This mornings Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Map. Notice that SAL is now non existent in the Eastern Caribbean. This means that if these two waves can slide out underneath the current SAL and get past the 50/60 line they will have a chance to breathe and open up their lungs a bit.2017-06-04_074125
Long time followers have heard this many times before. Sometimes like in history weather patterns can and do repeat themselves. 2017-06-04_102205
So we just saw BEE-a-triz in the EPAC with her remnants lifting up into the Bay of Campeche. This is the 06Z GFS for Day 10. One run of many more to come. Will KAL-vin develop and also become a cross dresser instead of a dry run ?2017-06-04_070132
As far as surf goes I’m still looking into that latest out of NOAA OPC showing nice NE Flow Developing going into the 2nd half of the week. This is Georges Bank
Down into Cape Hatteras to Murrells Inlet
Down into NE Florida Waters
Stay tuned may do a video forecast update this afternoon. will post it here in this post so check back or follow us on our social feeds.