Archives for July 2017

Possible Surf Alert NHC 20% Chance Next 5 Days

Here we go again. What a fun run of Summa Time Surf for July. From our last update we talked about how July was likely to end on the C name (CINDY) then we ended up briefly with DON and 96L INVEST which fizzled out but still aiding in the recent run of swell. We are 5 days away from closing out July and there is an outside shot we could see EMILY before the close but not likely.

Start you off with Climo. We are now at the 45 Day mark from the peak of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical cyclone Season.
This is the time of year where things can ramp up quickly. Some of the most active seasons in the record started after August 1st with the A Name. August is known as the Bunny Month like a Jack Rabbit racing to the Peak.
National Hurricane Center 20% chance of development next 5 days. This will likely become 97L INVEST in about 5 days or so maybe sooner.
Image from earlier this morning. Latest NOAA 48hr Surface forecast takes Low Pressure over Western Afrika and into the Atlantic. Although the National Hurricane Center has there X South of the Cape Verdes in the above image.
Possible SURF ALERT Coming. Latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast. The SW Swell you see off the coast is due to a developing GALE with primary SW Flow. Look East of Bahamas and you can see resurgence in ESE swell periods 8-10 Seconds.
Latest Run of the GFS next 96HRSLatest Run of the EURO at 96. Both Models in good Agreement. Both Images are for Sunday. 2-3 Day travel time on Swell. So next week setting up good along portions of the SE U.S. Coast.
Will stick with the EURO for now at Day 10. Looks like extended period of ride-able surf coming to kick off August. Possible EMILY with more Easterly Trade Support.
Latest Youtube Forecast Update. I apologize about video quality. I record via my phone and recently had to get a new one. What was touted as a great camera actually sucks. I’m an owner now of it.

Ex-Don 96L INVEST and Buoy Update

DON has dissipated, victim of Westerly Shear. Swell energy from DON/95L INVEST combined with a combination of Southern Hemi Swell energy, along with High Pressure wind swell out of the North Central Atlantic and is now on the move through the buoy system.

St Martins Buoy this morning. ENE Winds 15-20Kts with current Max Seas around 7 Feet.
Forecaster Note: We will be watching to see what 96L INVEST will add to this Buoy next 48hrs for this weekend.

On the PR Buoy swell height has bounced around from 2 feet up to 5-6 feet this morning out of the ESE at 9 seconds. Longer period pings you see is the Southern Hemi swell energy.

NE Bahama has also come up a couple of feet since this time yesterday into the 4 foot range.
Swell periods a little shorter. 4 Feet ESE around 8 seconds.
Swell energy from what was TD4 also in combination with High Pressure wind swell has finally faded on the East Canaveral Buoy. Buoy has finally dipped under 3 feet.
Thank You TD4. Bump on NE Bahamas Buoy now inbound.
South Hatteras 3 feet with some chopped up mess mixing in some 5 second intervals.
The East Hatteras Buoy showing swell directional change with SSW Swell at around 4 feet.
Latest on 96L INVEST. 96L about to turn itself into the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone’s Sheriff Dept.
Surrounded by dry dusty air 96L INVEST about to get Choked Out.
This is a negative as we really needed the Northern Ext to fire up to increase winds North of the LAT 20 Line. We will see. Thats Ex-DON bottom left. 2017-07-19_063615
The only other thing to note in the upcoming forecast is models hinting at some refreshing NE winds coming up. Latest run of the GFS for week from this Friday. Long ways out but models continue in the last several runs. This with HP wind swell out of the East Atlantic giving us hope in the extended.2017-07-19_064313
EURO for next Thursday

Thats it for now. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.

Although NHC popped a name on 95L INVEST it does not appear to be another name scheduled til after the 1st of August unless Home Grown. Go back up to the GFS and look East of Florida.

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95L INVEST Possible Fun Surf Alert Coming

Heres the next shot at some ride-able surf above waist high. We now have 95L INVEST out in the Central Atlantic. National Hurricane Center placing odd of 40% Chance of development next 5 days. Surfers are reminded we don’t need a named system to produce surf. we need the right pattern and fetch. Some of the best surf has come from no named systems. Chances are we won’t see a named system out of 95 and its almost a certainty what ever becomes of 95L its headed into the Eastern Caribbean where it will likely die. Strong Easterly trades in the Eastern Carib are known to disrupt surface circulation.2017-07-16_181835
Latest NOAA 72HR Surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center is showing some lift in latitude however. This is the time of year where the Northern Extensions of Tropical Waves can enhance ESE Trades.2017-07-16_162103
Latest 72HR Wind Wave Forecast out of the NHC showing Max Seas at 10 Feet around the Eastern Carib. However what we are watching is for the 2ND Wave behind 95L (Area with seas of 8 Feet) as models also give this wave some latitude. 2017-07-16_182524
Latest 96HR Wind Wave Forecast out of NOAA’S OPC. Image is in meters showing seas increasing 10-12 Feet in ESE Swell well East of the Islands.2017-07-16_164514
Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast showing another round of 8-10 second swell periods coming. Also take note of the SSE Swell 13-14 Seconds. Another Rare Southern Hemi Swell looks to penetrate North Atlantic Waters yet Again.2017-07-16_161851
Latest Run of the GFS for winds image is for Thursday. Patch of 30-35KT winds North of the 20 Lat Line. this means the Swell will pass North of PR with the Bahamas and the only source of swell blockage.2017-07-16_163225
So stay tuned for the updates. We will likely add a YouTube  Forecast video update to this post tomorrow so check back for it. As part of our forecast routine we will go into a Buoy Watch starting probably around Tuesday. Follow our Social Feeds for that. Again if you are unfamiliar with how we handle our feeds, everything goes to Twitter first then we share to Insta then FB. We do not always share whats on Twitter however.

We are 2 Weeks away from closing out July of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Chances are increasing that we COULD close out July with 1 Cyclone TD4 and no additional named systems. Have no fear as August is known as the Bunny month as we race towards the Peak of Hurricane Season.2017-07-16_175211
Heres the seasonal activity chart. Sept 10th marks the peak and we are now inside of 60 days.2017-07-16_184222
Stay Tuned

Latest on Ex-TD4 Possible 95L INVEST COMING

Here is the latest on Ex-TD4 North of PR this morning. Youtube video bottom of the post.
Appears broad rotational spin is developing and for the 3rd day in a row convection is re-firing once again. EURO and UK-MET have been hinting at regeneration last several days. Where and when is a mystery at the moment but we are about to solve the puzzle. 2017-07-10_102330
Latest Run of the EURO has it going into the Florida Panhandle Region by day 7. Thats from current position into the Bahamas, across SOFLO, into the Gulf, and into the P-Handle as WEAK area of Low Pressure. NOT A STORM, NOT A HURRICANE. However its all up in the air at the moment.
Next up POSSIBLE 95L INVEST coming. National Hurricane Center giving 20% chance of development next 5 days from a Tropical Wave that has moved off the AFRIKAN Coast.2017-07-10_102831
This mornings visible. Take note of the appearance marked 72HR2017-07-10_103026
National Hurricane Center 72HR Surface Forecast showing Low Pressure lifting NW X Marks the Spot.2017-07-10_103246
00Z GFS Day 5 with DON again.2017-07-10_103424
00Z EURO Day 5 with DUD again. However look into the GULF Ex-TD42017-07-10_103516
Latest 48HR swell forecast 2-4 Feet ESE swell 8-10 seconds.
UNLESS…..this thing gets its act together which is not out of the realm of possibility.
Another Rare Southern Hemi Swell2017-07-10_104022
Latest Youtube video forecast update. Follow us on Twitter for Real-Time Updates. We put it all there first then share over to Insta then Fakebook.

Latest on TD#4 Another Shot at Don

Heres the latest on TD#4. TD#4 Official forecast out of the National Hurricane Center is for dissipation over the next several days. We are at the cross over portion of the forecast, the “Fork in the Road for those who’ve seen our reference where all the environmental conditions this system has been fighting the system gets away and into a somewhat better environment.2017-07-07_153210
NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast showing Post Tropical Cyclone 4.2017-07-07_153433
Latest NOAA Wind Wave forecast showing Seas Increasing into the 10-12 foot range next 96hrs Image is in Meters.2017-07-07_153612
Latest Swell Forecast is showing 8-10 Second ESE Periods Developing and the North EQUAT Buoy is showing increasing swell heights into the 6 foot range starting so looks like a decent bump MAY BE coming. Follow us on our social feeds. We will go into a buoy watch next 48hrs.2017-07-07_153833
Latest Video Update Check this post for updates for updates on Possible Regeneration over the next day or so.

94L INVEST POSSIBLE 1st Hurricane Atlantic 2017 Season

We now have 94L INVEST. Chances are increasing over the next 24-48 hours that 94L becomes Tropical Storm Don (Dahn). We are now calling for Possible Surf Alert coming with a Possible Major Swell Event. Some uncertainty is starting to work its way into the forecast however.
Heres this afternoons look at NEWLY designated 94L INVEST.2017-07-03_125459
We did not get a chance to discuss this in our video. We don’t edit our videos so sometimes we leave stuff out accidentally we originally wanted to discuss. If you have been following the models there is no coincidence of the small circle you see NNE of PR . This is exactly the area to which the models bring 94L Possible Dahn. From there there are a few players on the board that bring us to pause on any out to sea solution. YES, that is likely the solution out to sea. However the TUTT Low over the Florida Keys may play a role in the eventual track of this system. Right now its wait until it comes out of the hole and gets N of PR.2017-07-03_130302
And thats if it does get N of PR. We think based on imagery there is an outside chance this gets South of PR and into the Eastern Carib. From there it could die or come across Hispan into the Bahamas. Its an outside chance. But one thing experience tells us is to not discount anything this early in the game. 2017-07-03_131659
Latest 72HR Wind Wave Forecast showing seas increasing into Double Digits setting up the Possible Surf Alert portions of the U.S. East Coast.2017-07-03_084700
Latest Video Update

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