Archives for August 2017

92L Now PTC TD #10 Possible IRMA…….93L/JOSE Incoming CLASSIC ?

Wanted to take a moment for PRAYERS to the people of Texas. Harvey continues to spin and is forecast to partially move back over the NW Gulf. Check our Social Feeds for updates, on what that could possibly mean for West Florida and Pan Handle Surfers. We are no longer covering the weather impacts of Harvey. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for more info on this system.

Here are the changes since our last update and video forecast posted 6 Days ago  Latest on HARVEY 92L INVEST Possible IRMA Major Swell Event ? The POSSIBLE Major Swell Event continues coming from what was 92L, which is now Potential Tropical Cyclone TD#10. National Hurricane Center now at 90% Chance of Development next 5 Days.

If you been following along, we mentioned in our updates that this one was a complicated one. The image below is the 00Z EURO from August 22nd valid for Thursday August 31st and was used in our updates when we first started picking up on the idea of a POSSIBLE Major Swell Event coming.
Harvey to the left, OBX Low (92L), NATLC Storm SE of NF, and AFRIKAN Wave into a Tropical Cyclone coming off Afrika.
There is uncertainty in the exact track of PTC TD#10, POSSIBLE IRMA or NO NAME STORM. National Weather Service Boston put out a Worse Case, Best Case scenario this morning. This is also is a Worse Case, Best Case scenario for Florida Surfers.
The system needs to get away from the coast in order for more Northerly fetch to be created. In the Worst Case scenario above the Outer Banks Shadow will block swell into Florida at least in size not period opening up a bit for SOFLO (Small Bump ATM)
Here is the very latest NOAA 96HR Swell Forecast. Go back to the EURO model above to see the difference since our last update on where the storms where to set up.
Plenty of Punch. Latest NOAA Wind Wave Forecast next 96 showing seas increasing to excess 30′ image is in Meters. This would qualify for DaBuh.com Major Swell Event Status for seas in excess of 25′. There are some negatives with Swell production however. 
Latest Surface Forecast showing Hurricane Force Low developing AND OR Possible Tropical/Sub Tropical Storm IRMA. It remains possible that this system does not acquire a name.
There is also some uncertainty on the exact timing on when the system decides to make its move off towards the OBX. This image around 9AM EST with the system located near or just offshore the Florida Georgia Border.
Latest out of the National Hurricane Center effective 8AM. Stay Tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates Buoy Watch now in effect. What Sucks is East Hatteras Buoy has once again gone a drift. This would have been a key indicator buoy for this system.

Here comes the Real Deal 93L INVEST  National Hurricane Center Now at 70% Chance of development.
Last Nights run of the EURO Day 10 Setting Up for A CLASSIC Hurricane Swell Up Coming Forecast Period. Light winds along the Eastern Seaboard Long Period Ground Swell
Heres this mornings look. System is just South of the Cape Verdes.
And a Look at the Big Picture. You don’t need to be a Rocket Scientist to see how 93L comes together.

The next question is where does it go from North of PR and there is some uncertainty there as well. Here are the typical tracks for September. Out to Sea (Most likely in Orange) with system originating in this type of pattern.
We will add a forecast video update to this post shortly so stay tuned in for that. If you get skunked don’t shoot the messenger. If it aint breaking at your house it doesn’t mean its not going off at someone else.

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93L INVEST

PTC TD#10

Harvey

Stay Tuned for the Forecast Video Update. Will Post it at the top of this post later today. (Hopefully)

Latest on HARVEY 92L INVEST Possible IRMA Major Swell Event ?

Heres the very latest in the forecast. Looks like the HARVEY Comeback tour is underway as low pressure looks to be closing off the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Forecast models very consistent taking HARVEY into Southern Texas as a Tropical Storm/Hurricane. Still some uncertainty on track and strength. Texas resident through Louisiana will not have much time to prepare as the systems begins to lift NW away from the YUKE. 
12Z EURO making landfall into Southern Texas next 72HRS. Again some uncertainty here because….
By Day 7 the EURO moves HARVEY back over the NW GULF. Florida Pan Handle and West Florida Surfers stay tune to our social feeds for the update. If this were to verify could put a shot of W/SW swell in the water. Not seeing it yet though translate into the swell models but that doesnt mean its not coming stay tuned.

In this same image 92L INVEST that we have been tracking for over a week looks to finally crank up off the SE U.S. Coast. So a week from today the EURO is showing HARVEY in the West Gulf and Possible IRMA lifting up to the OBX along the coast. As it lifts North strong onshore flow developing. All mariners commercial fisherman with interest in this region should monitor the progress of this system as small craft advisories will likely go into effect along with small craft should stay in port.

Now check this out. Two days ago we posted this to our feeds and said  Ancient Rainbow Warrior Sign Da Gorilla is in the Room (Elephant in the Room ? ) and has the EYE of GOH. I promise you there is a methos to the madness. 
12Z EURO and GFS Possible MAJOR SWELL EVENT Coming just inside 10 days and the Gorilla looks like he is going to ground and pound a bunch of people. Thats HARVEY to the left IRMA off the OBX maybe JOSE SE of Newfoundland or a no name storm with KATIA or JOSE coming off AFRIKA.
All the players are on the board so its a matter of it coming together. GREAT back to back consistency in the models on the idea. If this were to verify and it looks like its going to or at least some variation of two systems producing NE fetch it will be on like Donkey Kong. With large swell being produced reaching into SOFLO out to the Bahamas all the way through the Eastern Caribbean. So first 92L gets going as IRMA creating onshore flow and NE fetch then the Low SE of Newfoundland develops behind it. Thats NE Swell wrapping into NE Swell for Major Swell Event.

Leave you with one more Ancient Rainbow Warrior Sign the sign of the CAT. As in Possible Season 1st Cape Verde Hurricane moving out into the Atlantic as a 3rd Swell source after these 2 systems depart NE. Here KITTY KITTY KITTY.
Stay Tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.
Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast

Monday

Little knee to thigh high east windchop this morning throughout South Florida. The winds are blowing so hopefully it’ll pick up throughout the day. Hope it does! It’ll be cool to get a session with the eclipse this afternoon.

Latest on 91 92 and Soon to be 93L INVEST

Very active pattern for the Atlantic. The question remains as to what will come of it. For our followers who are not of the Surf or Marine community not much here for you today. As of now the only system out of the 3 the only one at the moment that has any land threat potential looks to be 91L INVEST East of the Islands. National Hurricane Center now issuing advisories on PTC #9 currently forecast as the 3rd Hurricane of the season, Franklin CAT 1, GERT CAT 2
We are also monitoring a T-Wave over the NE Caribbean. Although development is not likely this will enhance rains for the region and help enhance ESE trade wind flow and swell,As of report time the East Bahamas Buoy with gust to 30Kts with seas in the 6 foot range with what appears to be first sign of swell directional change on the South Bermuda Buoy rotating from WNW to ESE.

This is the latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast. Showing Northerly Swell coming out of the North Atlantic and ESE Swell coming out of the main development region behind 91 92 and soon to be 93L INVEST. Small patch of Southern Hemi Swell and GERT Swell pushing off towards the East.Thats all we have time for for now. We have gone into another Buoy Watch follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates. Latest out of the National Hurricane Center wind wave forecast showing seas increasing into DD Territory 10-12 Feet North of PR next 72HRS with more likely on the way behind 93L INVEST. Latest Video Forecast Update

TD#8 Forecast to Become GERT 91L INVEST W-Afrikan Coast

99L Invest East of the Bahamas has turned into TD#8 and is forecast to become Tropical Storm GERT later today. Swell from TD#8 is just beginning to filter into the buoys for Florida Surfers. Buoy Watch in Effect. East Canaveral as of 10AM is approaching 4 Feet out of the ESE at 9 seconds. Near Shore Canaveral and Grays Reef have moved up just over the 2 Foot mark and should slowly increase throughout the day as the fetch is currently aimed at the Central Florida Coast to points Northward. In addition the systems is moving off towards the NNW pushing water towards the Coast.
Next buoy up South Hatteras Buoy now 4 Feet out of the SW.
Possible Surf Alert for South Facing Beaches along the Mid-Atlantic through NE. Latest 48HR wind wave forecast out of NOAA’s OPC showing seas increasing excess 20 Feet to possible 25. Image is in meters. Take note that the arrow points to the right side of the system in front of SSW winds to 50KTS. If you saw our last video update this is where we discussed the system being heavily weighted on the East Side of the semi circle behind Southerly winds. It is also the point where we mentioned in the video Florida Surfers could get robbed.
Wind forecast for Tuesday with strong SW Flow with GERT ? headed Out to Sea
Not to worry as we now have 91L INVEST off the West Afrikan coast. Pattern developing should lead into a multiple day run of swell coming starting around next weekend. We are now inside of 30 days to the statistical peak of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. (Sept 10th) 
National Hurricane Center showing a 20% chance of development next 5 Days. I would expect a bump to 40% at the 2PM update.
Copy of a Tweet from yesterday morning.

Last nights run of the EURO 1…2….3… +240 (10 Days).
Its why we watch you follow DaBuh.
Thats 91L INVEST as HARVEY off the South Florida Coast and maybe 2 more. Image is for a week from this Wednesdays.
Thats it for now waiting on the afternoon model runs to cyclce and will cut a video forecast update later today after we’ve had a chance to look. Stay Tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.
I’ll leave you with this. Keep in mind this is 1 Run of many more to come. Image is a week from today.
NE Swell Plus SE Swell typically leads to nice peaks.
Stay Tuned for the video forecast update. Will post it at the top of this post so check back for it later today.

Tropical Storm FRANKLIN 99L Goes Poof ?

For those who were waiting on the video forecast update I apologize for not posting one. I’m finding it difficult to put something together under that format as the forecast has changed since our last update. We do our best to wait til the last moment when were are confidant in what we are seeing in the forecast to cut a video. With that said, we now have Tropical Storm Franklin. We are halfway there on our call (Now 8 days ago) with this Tweet from July 31st. With 99L INVEST all but toast, Homegrown development is all that is left for the call to verify

Here’s this mornings Water Vapor Imagery. Franklin “Rounding the Corner” into the Golfo de Hondura crossing the YUKE into the Bay of C. Large Upper Level Low NE of PR sucking in T-Wave energy. Although not very often, given the right circumstances, ULL’s can and have work there way to the surface. To add to the intrigue, models for what ever reason have a hard time seeing it. Thats partly the reason for the old saying Weather Happens in Real-Time”. The other is, Nothing in Weather is Absolute Until it Happens in Real-Time. It is something we are keeping an eye on. Florida Pan Handle Surfers there is a shot as some SMALL YUKE Channel Swell from Franklin worth keeping an EYE on it. Obviously the bigger swell will be along the TX-MEX Coast.

99L INVEST is all but toast. Tweeted 3 days ago now that the system “Could go POOF”.
For those who didn’t see our last post Twitter is where we share all of our Real-Time updates. We share some to our other social platforms but not always especially during times of increased activity it becomes difficult to keep up with the other feeds.

National Hurricane Center now giving 99L INVEST only a 20% Chance of development next 5 Days. Heres this mornings IR. What you see on the left NE of the Virgins is the moisture content of a Tropical Wave getting sucked into the ULL detailed above. 99L in the middle with a NEW T-Wave exiting the AFRIKAN Coast.
Looking at 99L in the SAL Imagery and over the last several days 99L has been self defeating. What has been happening is while 99L has been moving off to the West a moderate area of SAL has been moving in tandem with it and is currently sandwiched between the ULL and 99L. The broad counter clockwise rotation continues to suck in dry dusty air into 99L’s COR rotation not to mention  SAL pushing up on the rear.
The next obstacle is a wall of shear. Although shear has decreased a little over the last 24HRS it will be difficult for 99L to pass. There were signs briefly it would but that changed overnight. For those who remember TD 4 and the ULL that parked NE of PR here we go again.
This means we will have to wait for what ever is left of 99L to cross the 65 Long line which essentially marked by the backside of PR which the 00Z EURO shows in about 5 days where we could see a bump in surf along with the possibility of Homegrown Development.
Thats it for now follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time Update and stay tuned to the forecast. Remember just cause models show no development now doesn’t mean they cant at the next run.

90 and 99L INVEST Possible Surf Alert Coming

For those who have been following our forecast, RE “August known as the “Bunny Month” we are off to a fast start. Although Tropical Storm EMILY formed at the end of July, in the first 4 days of August, we’ve had a Tropical Cyclone and now two INVEST 90 and 99L. A good forecaster always goes back to see what he or she said to determine forecast verification. 5 days ago we put this out on our social feeds. As the season progresses towards the peak of season (Now approaching the 30 day mark) we want to make you aware if you are not already, that Twitter is where we always post 1st. Then that gets shared to our other feeds Facebook and Instagram but not always. If you are searching for Real-Time Updates and dont follow us on Twitter, you may want to consider creating a Twitter Account going into peak of season. You can always delete the app if you don’t like it. If we are your only follow, its like having your own DaBuh App. During heightened activity you can turn on notifications for every post or just refresh the feed. Also keep in mind if there is a period of non post we are probably in the water conducting in the field forecast verification 🙂

When viewing satellite imagery on this website or in our social feeds, Rule of Thumb- ALWAYS verify date and time stamp. I have seen people look at an image, get excited, only to find out the image is 5 days old such as the image below. If no time stamp exist in the image look to see when the post originated.

I can almost promise you nobody else was talking about the possibility of two named systems 5 days ago. Latest out of the National Hurricane Center showing 90L INVEST North Coast South Amerika and 99L INVEST South of the Cape Verde Islands. 90L now at 50% chance of development next 5 Days 99L at 80.
When you hear the word “Model” it is always 1 run. Models update 10 times a day with every run different from the previous. Currently the EURO and the GFS are Split. EURO has backed off on 99L but develops 90L going into the Bay of Campeche  keeping 99L small and weak. GFS is the exact opposite showing a Hurricane coming over the top of PR with 99L INVEST and weak on 90. Heres the latest on model tracks for 99L.

In case you missed this post. Right now there are no threats to the U.S. Eastcoast with lots of time to watch. We will be adding a forecast video update to this post later today so stay tuned in for that. Looking at the image above you can see some potential for a threat but likely scenario at the moment looks to be Out to Sea (OTS) for 99 or dying in the Eastern Caribbean.

Surfers Possible Surf Alert coming up. I dropped this on the social feeds yesterday has not been said in a long time. Dont Hex it. Possible DaBuh.com Major Swell Event coming. Major Swell Event by Atlantic Standards are defined by a storm system producing long period swell 14 plus seconds with seas in excess of 25 feet. GOMEX Surfers still looking into your scenario with 90L INVEST.

Latest NOAA OPC 24hr Swell Forecast showing NE Swell from Large Scale GALE a few Days ago up in the North Atlantic. This is an Early Winter Swell Season sign. Had it been winter GALE would have likely been a Hurricane Force Low. For those who follow swell forecast same effect smaller scale.
Latest 96hr Swell Forecast and heres where things get interesting. The area SE of the Cape with arrows pointing in all directions is swell energy from EMILY, and the Secondary Low that had a 10% Chance, that moved up out of the GOMEX yesterday behind EMILY. If you look to the right of  that you see more Easterly Swell developing with Southern Hemi Energy coming up behind what is 99L INVEST with periods spreading out into the 13-14 second range. Easterly swell periods South of the Cape down into Florida.
This is the EURO for next Wednesday NO Major Swell Event. Franklin in the BOC 99L INVEST  East of the Islands no development.
This is the GFS for next Wednesday with a Major Swell Event. So lots of uncertainty at the moment especially considering this is just inside of 7 days so anything past 7 days is suspect.
Heres what 90L INVEST looks like in the satellite imagery this morning. Rule of Thumb-Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop. Wheres the Tail ? Bay of Campeche.
What does the EURO show ? Image is for next Thursday Day 8. Based on the pattern above the chances are increasing that a Tropical Cyclone will verify. For those who follow our forecast this is the Round the Corner Pattern we were detailing back in June we we had the first seasonal storms. That is, Area of Spin off Costa Rica Rounding the corner of Honduras into the Gulf of Honduras. Two typical tracks from there. Across the YUKE into the Bay of C (Western GOMEX) or up the YUKE Channel. This one looks to be headed into Mexico or Southern Texas.
Taking a look at the bigger picture. We need 90L INVEST to clear the East Caribbean to see what 99L may do. I also like this pattern for the 1st Possible Hurricane of the 2017 Season however there are some environmental challenges ahead.
Thats it for now. Stay tuned for the forecast video update later today. Will post it here bottom of this post. Will leave you with this post from July 26th, 10 days ago. +240= 24HRS x 10 Days.
Active Phase has begun.

Tuesday

Fun waves today up in St. Lucie County. Definitely a nice break from this summer flat spell!!!

NWS is calling for a little SE breeze to pick up on Thursday and last a few days. We might get some longboardable waves out of it.