Archives for November 2017

Entering Real-Time Phase of Possible Major Swell Event

Today marks the Official End of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.
If you read our previous update, this also marks the transitional period of season change from Fall to Winter or from Tropical Cyclone Season to ExtraTopical Cyclone Season. This will run us into the end of February or there about. Extra Extra Read all about it.

Now entering the Real-Time Phase of a Possible Major Swell Event Coming. If it doesn’t pan out for you where you live don’t shoot the messenger. Please remember the forecast challenges we detailed in our last post. We do our best to provide you with the latest forecast based on model guidance going out at least 10 days and pattern recognition. I promise you know one else on the internet is putting out this info in the way we detail it for you here on DaBuh.com in hopes that you score good surf.

With that said, first signs of Long Period NE Groundswell showing up in NOAA’s Swell Forecast Maps as Low Pressure begins to develop out in the Atlantic next 72-96HRS.

Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. This time of year is all about understanding Atmospheric Flow. Weak Low Pressure moving out away from the Bahamas up to the North Central Atlantic will associate with the Storm Force Low that developed. Thats the Red Arrow SE of Newfoundland in the image below.
This Storm Force Low has dropped SE and has produced seas in excess of 30 Feet. This mornings Wind Wave Analysis out of NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center showing MAX Seas now at 35 Feet. This exceeds the original forecast vs Real-Time and it appears models were a bit under-done. Again one of the many forecast challenges for this time of year is model performance showing you one thing one minute another the next. It’s what happens in Real-Time that matters.
Latest Swell Forecast 14-16 second swell periods developing. Like we discussed in our previous update its not about the Storm itself its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. Half the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component with Easterly building across the top.
Heres the latest 96HR surface forecast out of the OPC edits mine.
Key word is “Absorbed” here. This will open up NE Fetch.

This is how that looks in the latest 96HR  swell forecast. Thats 8-10 seconds building into the Mid-Atlantic region. As of right now the forecast is calling for GALE with seas in excess of 20 Feet. The issue at hand is current models are further East and weaker with the next system coming in.

Heres the latest forecast discussion out of the OPC.

NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
255 AM EST THU 30 NOV 2017
Models should start to get a better handle on this next system coming over the next 24HRS or so as better sampling of atmospheric conditions over the U.S. will begin to take place. Wish we had more for you but thats it for now. Keep in mind that just because models show a further East location and a weaker system it doesn’t mean they cant switch back heading into the weekend. As of now looks like a large Northerly Swell heading for the Caribbean. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates and thanks for following our forecast updates.

Big Swell Setting Up for the Atlantic

Ok here we go finally something worth posting about. In our last post November 9th we talked about the challenges this time of year when it comes to forecasting. Transitioning away from Tropical Season into Extra Tropical Season. The switch from Hurricane Season in the tropics, to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic. Think of this if you will, as Hurricane Season in reverse. Which we are now 4 days away from closing out the 2017 season. What we mean by that is during Hurricane Season, we look for areas of Low Pressure moving off Afrika into the Atlantic that can develop into a Tropical Cyclone. During Winter we go into reverse, looking for areas of Low Pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that can rapidly intensify into a Hurricane Force Low or a Extra-Tropical Cyclone. The difference between the two here. Depending on the size, shape, pattern and location of these Hurricane Force Lows they can at times produce what we call is a Major Swell Event.
That is, seas in excess of 25 Feet creating swell periods of 13-15 seconds plus with a majority of land locations receiving large surf conditions. Remember just because we say Major Swell Event and it doesn’t break at your location it doesn’t mean its not going off at someone else’s.

Ok with that said Models have been hinting at a Major Swell Event coming in the upcoming forecast period. Many of you recently saw our post that models are trying to go on lock with 2 Large areas of Low pressure coming to the Atlantic. The pattern is just starting to setup. Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. We have been talking alot recently about AZORE Lows going back to that November 9th post. Here we have another one. This one has been out there for about 72hrs.
And has put a charge of NE Swell in the water heading for the Caribbean. As of report time the South Bermuda Buoy showing small scale NE swell 3-4 Feet at around 14 seconds. Nothing Major but its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. If you look back at the image above the Low that moved out of Florida that dumped the heavy rains has now slid up towards Nova Scotia putting a WSTRLY Swell component in the water.
But thats ok because a NEW AZORE Low is now forecast. This will put another charge of NE Swell in the water reinforcing the current NE Swell setting up for that Possible Major Swell Event coming. This NEW AZORE Low is now forecast as a Storm Force Low next 72-96HRS.
Latest NOAA 96HR Surface forecast.Seas are forecast to 30 Feet next 72-96HRS. Image is in Meters, 9 Meters, 30 Feet.
Then heres where things get interesting. Show you the difference CURRENTLY between the GFS and EURO going back to size, shape, pattern and location mentioned above. The current run of the EURO shows weak low pressure moving out of the Bahamas on Day 5 ( Friday 12-1)and the AZORE Low weakening.
Then on Day 8 ( Monday 12-4) 982MB LOW Centered on Nova Scotia. This would primarily send swell to the Caribbean some into the Bahamas but by passing U.S. East Coast Locations in a NW Swell Component. 
But lets look at the GFS for next Monday. GFS with a weaker Low but more NNE Fetch reinforced by the ESTRLY Fetch from AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack. This would create a positive in swell production.
But then look what happens on Tuesday Day 9. GFS wants to Retro the Low back down towards the South a tad while strengthening it. This would open up more NE Fetch for U.S. East Coast while aiming a Strong Northerly Swell at the Bahamas over to the Virgin Islands. and again keeping the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component. If the GFS were to verify that would be seas like the current AZORE Low to 30 plus Feet but now U.S. East Coast closer to the swell source.
Still along ways out so lots of time to watch. 12Z Model runs are just coming out so stay tuned to our social feeds for the updates. In the short term it looks like some increasing High pressure wind swell into Florida starting around Mid-Week with the Caribbean scoring off this developing Storm Force Low out near the AZORES.

Juno Pier Surf Report 11/22/17

Mostly flat out today with some small waves bumps rolling in on the inside and on shore. A lot of beach goers enjoying the cooler weather. Some surfers just coming in with their paddle boards. At Tiki1, local Juno legend, … Continue reading

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Juno Pier Surf Report 10:30am 11-21-17

Juno Pier is looking choppy and murky with onshore wind on it all. 1-2′ high waves with occasional 3′, but they are so unorganized it doesn’t matter unless you want to try a log on it.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/20/17

Very windy conditions at the Juno pier this morning. 2 to 4′ mushy waves rolling on shore, very short shoreline still. Nice conditions for kite borders. Not many surfers out during the report.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/18/17

About 2-4′ waves out at the Juno Pier this morning. Lots of white wash, but pretty good conditions for skimmers. The beach is still very eroded, with not a lot of beach goers at this time.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/15/17

More murky, choppy waves at he juno pier today. Windy conditions with 3+’ waves but no surfers out at all.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/14/17

Juno pier Surf is minimal and choppy. The water is still murky and the beachfront remains minimal. No surfers out this early am.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/13/17

Choppy conditions this morning at the Juno Pier. Pulling in 3+’ waves but no surfers out during the Report. Still mostly murky waters.

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Juno Pier Surf Report 11/11/17

Choppy, murky water this morning with 2-4’ waves. Good conditions for skim boarders. The pier is pretty busy but no surfers spotted in the water.

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