Latest on LESLIE Possible MICHAEL Upcoming Forecast Period

Good afternoon everyone. Looks like an increase in possible tropical cyclone activity is now underway. National Hurricane Center now giving a 20% chance of development next 5 days for an area located down in the Western Caribbean models have been hinting at for several days now. If this system where to develop would be given the name MICHAEL. There is also the possibility we could see NADINE coming at us East of the Eastern Caribbean in about 10 days. Still looking into that and the EURO shows LESLIE out in the Atlantic for 10 more days. There is an outside chance LESLIE could perform a loop. Lots of time to watch.

First things first. Heres this area in the Western Caribbean. This has DNA of KIRK.

National Hurricane Center with 20% chance next 5 days. This matches up fairly well with our pinned tweet yesterday. We always try to stay one step ahead of NHC.

Latest European Model Run day 10. 1 Run of many more to come. LESLIE Still out there, MICHAEL Florida East Coast, Possible early sign NADINE East of the Estrn Carib.

Thats all I got for now. Heres the latest video update. Apologize in advance for any errors and technical issues. Thanks for following. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.

Possible Surf Alert Coming Tropical/Sub Tropical Storm KIRK ?

Morning everyone and Welcome NEW Followers. We apologize for the non textual updates on FLORENCE. We did cut 3 YouTube Videos however on our YouTube channel. Prayers to all who are suffering and to those who’ve now lost everything. For those new to DaBuh.com we are primarily a surf and marine forecast covering the Atlantic Waters. Many of you that are following now do neither. You will likely be the ones who stop following after Hurricane Season is over. If you followed us FLORENCE and think we did a good job on Pinning where we thought she would go. Give us a review on Facebook let us know how we did. Tell all You Frens…Mo Frens Mo Betta….. Wurd of DaBuh

So you know how it works with us we post all of our Real-Time posts on our Twitter feed @DaDabuh then decide what to share over on Insta and FB as to not blow up those feeds with too much information. Then when confidence builds in what we are seeing in the upcoming forecast, we’ll come here to put it all on paper for you and or cut a video. We have started the backside peak of the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. October is a month of monsters as Fall kicks in. It’s called Fall for a reason and the leaves are not the only thing that begins to fall Low Pressure being another. Using $$$ is a forecasters way of saying the forecast is money. We receive no funding here for what we do and have no sponsors. We don’t do what we do for “Clickbait” and we don’t do what we do to make money. We do what we do for the love of it.

Alright so here comes a shot at KIRK. If KIRK where to develop, at the moment, it doesn’t appear that he would affect the United States but this could change. There is so much run to run variability in the models it is hard to say exactly what this will do long term. First we got to get development.

So let me tell you what you are looking at here. This is a moment in time. Although the image is still the atmosphere is fluid. So in your mind looking at the arrows you have to put this into motion. Movement is primarily West to East. We have the Ghost of FLORENCE East of the OBX. We have the tail end of the front coming through Florida. Trough and Northern Extension of Tropical Wave moving through PR. Notice the alignment over Mona Passage. What do we always say here? There is a shot at Homegrown development coming off the East Florida Coast the models may not be fully latched on to yet. The Ghost of ISAAC is still out there. So you will want to stay tuned in on that next several days. The Upper Level Low we were tracking is now about to combine with the Ghost of Florence and way over to your right is the Ghost of JOYCE. It is unclear at the moment what if any roll Ex-JOYCE will play in the possible development of KIRK. Lots of Ghostly images this morning with what appears to be some incestuous behavior coming in the upcoming forecast period.

Here’s the latest 72HR Surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. Weak 1013MB Low attached where ? “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts Along Stalled or Dying fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop. Sometimes Low Pressure likes to Pin itself to the Tail.” Now look back at the image above. National Hurricane Center is currently NOT highlighting this area and models show only weak low pressure. Keeping in mind nothing in weather is absolute until it happens in Real-Time. This looks to work its way towards the Florida Coast.

Heres last nights run of the GFS for +240. Thats 10 days and it’s along ways out verses time. Distance not so much 🙂 This is one run of many more to come. Again if, KIRK where to develop he would likely remain a Fishstorm. Go back to the IR image above and in your mind combine the Ghost of Florence the Upper Level Low throw Ghost of JOYCE in the mix and….. Wa-Lah. Light winds for PR and NE Groundswell fingers crossed.

National Hurricane Center now at 40%

This is last nights run of EURO Day 6 image +144HRS.

So as you can see lots to watch in the upcoming forecast so stay tuned to our social feeds for updates. Latest 96HR Swell forecast showing the Atlantic moving in the right direction. All we need to do is add the BIG NE Swell maker and it could be. Give me a ticket for an AERO Plane….. aint got time to take a fast train…Lonlely days are gone…. I’mma comin home……my baby she wrote me a lettah.

Uptick in Possible Tropical Cyclone Development SURF ALERT ?

Here we go into the real-time phase of what we talked about in our last update. Start you off with the latest out of the National Hurricane Center with what is likely to become Tropical Storm Florence then Hurricane Florence into Labor Day Weekend. This system will help setup Possible Surf Alert Coming. We will begin dialing that in over the next several days. Lots of time to watch and analyze keeping in mind its swell, distance, travel time and arrival so lots to work out.

Closer to home we are monitoring for Possible Homegrown Development coming to the Gulf of Mexico. This is this mornings enhanced visible.

The overnight run of the EURO is still head strong on this feature and track. Compare the imagery above where the 1st Red Dot is to the image below. This is Day 5 Sept 4th

This is Day 7 Sept 6th. This is pretty much on shore winds for everybody. Don’t complain just surf.

This was early morning visible and is the energy for what you see in the EURO above. As of this update the NHC is not mentioning anything about this system. So while everybody is keeping an eye on the backdoor the front door looks to be wide open.

Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast showing 1st Signs of Winter Swell Season. Northerly Swell dropping in from Storm Force Low currently near the tip of Greenland with building long period ESE Hurricane Swell.

To throw some more in the mix the pattern may be setting up for an OBX Low Coming. This is partially why you see NE Wind swell in the image above pushing South of Newfoundland.

EURO is hinting at a vorticity spin developing dropping SW. Last nights run +240 (10 Days). Thats it tucked under the OBX. Weak in the model run but this is just 1 run but stronger than previous so we will be monitoring model trends next several runs.

Latest Video Update. Stay tuned more coming.

Atlantic Heating Up

Over the last couple of weeks we’ve noticed an uptick in the number of NEW followers, Welcome to DaBuh.com. We typically see this kind of trend each year around the peak of Hurricane Season which climatologically is September 10th. Then after the season has ended we see a drop of followers.Those followers are typically ones that do not surf or own a boat or make their living on one and are only looking for storm info. I bring that up because we are primarily a surf and marine forecast website/service covering the Atlantic Waters. We are looking for wind and waves first, and or, weather systems that create high seas or long period swell. I bring that up because those that don’t have a marine interest, will often think we are HYPING a system. We don’t HYPE. But we do cover Fish Storms 🙂 For those wondering what a Fish Storm is it is a storm that stays out to sea have no direct impact on land only the fish. So if you see us doing lots of updates on a Fish Storm it’s not because we are hyping it’s because we are focusing in on swell and seas.

With that said the Atlantic is heating up. The models have been hinting at this the last several days but are now starting to turn up the heat. We have verification in the imagery and the players are on the board. First Look todays HI-RES over AFRIKA. Tropical Wave entering East Atlantic with likely 2 more on the way. Flow is from right to left. This is once again a STRONG Tropical Signal.

This leads us into the Atlantic. For those who have seen are recent post on our Social Feeds, “Pattern Developing Known to Produce Tropical Cyclones” this is what it looks like in the imagery. As advertised a few days ago. The ULL (Upper Level Low) over Cuba and the Bahamas along with the UL Trough from the decaying front opens up the door for POSSIBLE Homegrown development coming. The first piece of the puzzle is East of the Islands in the main development region.

We will be watching for the Northern Extension of this tropical wave to break of main wave axis and slip possibly through Mona Passage and into the Bahamas. EURO has been consistant on taking this energy through the FL-STR8’s and into the Gulf of Mexico (GOMEX) This is the last nights run of the EURO going into Day 8. Weak Low Center of GOMEX, Another NE of Central Bahamas with Possible FLORENCE and GORDON in tow.

00Z EURO +240=10 Days. Mind you this is one run of many more to come but the signs are everywhere.

As a descendant of an Ancient Rainbow Warrior we believe in signs. This is this mornings SAL Imagery. SAL=Saharan Air Layer. Yes what we have outlined is actually weather features that may play into the role of possible tropical development coming. When outlined it takes on the shape of a cat face. Here Kitty Kitty.

Sign of things to come ? Here is a look at the current wind field pattern of the North Atlantic. There are Two Low Pressure Centers both Gales in the North Atlantic. Looking at the latest run of the EURO looks like two more coming tropical in nature.

Latest Youtube Video. Best Watched in Full Screen.
Stay tuned to our social feeds for updates. It looks like we will be stepping up the tempo as it appears there are interesting time ahead. Stay Tuned.

Update to Yesterdays Post Canary Low Welcome to August

Whats up everybody. Wanted to take a second as a Native Floridian to let you know, if you don’t know already, that an ecological disaster is occurring in the Southern End of my home state. It’s happening Right Here, Right Now and there’s not a Fat Boy Slim Chance in hell that its going to get any better anytime soon because its not. The waters are about to go still, as in no movement as we are likely headed back to Lake Atlantic conditions with no tropical development in sight. For those of you that have seen the pictures this kill seems to be different. This kill is killing off LARGE bodied animals and I don’t think I have ever seen so many pictures of large bodied fish throwing out that old saying, only the strong survive. It’s one thing to kill off the shallows and the little fish but this one seems like it’s running deep and I’m waking up to find my loves not real.
FIX IT…… RIGHT HERE !!!!!…… RIGHT NOW !!!!!
Not sure who the photo creds go to but this is sickening.

Kind of hard to follow up after that. Don’t mean to be a DEBBY Downer to start the post but
speaking of DEBBY (next name on the list) models continue to show no tropical development through the 1st two weeks of August. If you did not read yesterdays post go read it before continuing….

Heres this Canary Low we are watching for. This mornings Rainbow IR. This is a frontal boundary that is stalling. Rule of thumb “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for Area of Low Pressure to Develop”.

Latest 96HR Swell Forecast. There’s the SE S-Hemi Swell into NW Atlantic waters. NE Swell from North Atlantic discussed in yesterdays post with weak Low Developing out near the Canary’s. Again its a shame that that Southern Hemi swell has come in and cutoff the NE that was coming out of the North Atlantic. What ever is coming better get it. Looks like Lake Atlantic about to make it’s return until something rolls off of Afrika. Not saying there won’t be ride-able surf.

One of the other things we talked about in yesterdays post was the RIP Factor. Long time follower Tim Kelly NBC 10 Boston points it out in a tweet this morning. Although its’ a small swell, what lies at the surface does not always reflect what lies beneath.

Stay Tuned to our Social Feeds for Real-Time updates as we watch for this Low coming out of the Canary’s. As a Reminder if it doesn’t pan out don’t shoot the messenger. Consider yesterdays and todays post a dry run for whats to come. Looking forward to stepping up our game in the next two weeks. DEBBY is coming…when is the question.

Welcome to August

Welcome *NEW Followers and thank you to dose who hab bin lub-bing me long time 🙂
We are primarily a surf and marine forecast covering the North Atlantic however we like to say you don’t have to be a surfer or a mariner to follow our forecast as we also forecast tropical weather systems during Tropical Cyclone Season. Welcome to August and welcome to DaBuh.com. We are T-MINUS 41 Days and Counting to reach the peak of this years Tropical Cyclone Season. Heres where the game starts to step up.

As of right now there is absolutely nothing on the board that could threaten life limb or property anytime in the near future. GFS shows no tropical development for the 1st two weeks of August and EURO has since backed off of its tropical signals it was giving us a few days ago. Some of you on twitter may recall us using “Moderate to Strong” Tropical Signal a few days ago in our feed when looking at Afrika. Yesterdays HI-RES below. Although the image is still the atmosphere is fluid. Set the image in your mind then into motion, movement from right to left. But, just because it’s a moderate to strong tropical signal that doesn’t always equate to tropical development as environmental factors come into play (SAL Cooler MDR H20 Temps) as these Tropical Waves roll into the Atlantic. By count, for the 2018 season, we are now in the 30’s for number of Tropical Waves that have emerged off the West Afrikan Coast season to date. So if your concern is of tropical threats you can stop reading now. Bar any Homegrown Development it appears the first 2 weeks of August will go without seeing DEBBY. Of course terms and conditions are subject to change.
Follow us on our Socials for Real-Time post. Stay tuned to DaBuh.com for the details

Surfers…ok so we posted in our feeds a few days ago Possible Surf Alert setting up for East Florida Boys this weekend. Mind you we said not alot of confidence ATM (at the moment). Here it comes trying to setup in the swell forecast. If it doesn’t pan out don’t shoot the messenger. It’s something we are watching for but there’s some anomalous conditions in the North Atlantic right now. Case in point NOAA OPC 24HR Swell Forecast. 15-18 second SE Swell cutting through the water. Is it Southern Hemi Swell ? I don’t know. Certainly wasn’t from a strong area of Low Pressure. What I do know is it’s cutting across, meaning it’s cutting off any other swell source. These periods look to make it to New England. Beach goers beware of the RIP. Its called RIP for a reason. On a personal note, yesterday was the 1yr anniversary of my one and only sisters passing. Love you sis rest in peace.

And what we mean by “Cutting”, we finally get some NE Swell coming out of the NATLC that would of factored into the Possible Surf Alert setting up this weekend now being cutoff at 48HRS.

Jump you to 96HRS. Notice the swell directional change. So there is some hope here but appears to be fading.

It’s at this point where models had been suggesting an area of Weak Low Pressure near the Canary’s would retro back up under Bermuda but have since somewhat backed off the idea. The uncertainty is that it doesn’t mean they cant turn it back on over the next several runs. It’s why we watch in Real-Time. Nothing in weather absolute until it happens in it. Again yesterdays Hi-RES below.

EURO Day 5 Saturday into Sunday.

Thats it for now. Cross U Finga cause thats all we got. Luke-King Bleak….
Follow us on our Social Feeds @DaDaBuh on Twitter ..@DaBuhSurf on the Gram.. @DaBuh on Facebook for Real-Time Updates stay tuned to DaBuh.com for the details.
Thanks for following

1st 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone ALETTA……. BUD? BERYL?

The 1st Tropical Storm of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone has formed Tropical Storm ALETTA. We are now at 50% of verification of our 1st call with our “Pinned Tweet” now going into our 8th day. The clock is running. If you saw our last website update a week ago we are now into that Real-Time Phase for the shot at BERYL. If you front me 3 days for a total of 13 I’m still inside the window of the call with 5 days to go. In the pinned tweet “Main Energy to EPAC”. There is now a 60% chance of development of Tropical Storm Bud next 5 days which looks to be on lock and the EPAC is highly likely to see the seasons first Two Hurricanes. Did not see BUD in the line up but in a sense it is still the B storm accounting for 2 storms of our pinned tweet. Question yet to be answered is BERYL.

The chance for BERYL will come on the heels of what should be Hurricane Bud in about 5 days from the last of 3 Tropical Waves that moved off West Afrika and have been traversing the Atlantic off towards the West the last week. They have traveled as a package and the last one is about to split off from the pack next 72hrs. Latest 72hr surface forecast National Hurricane Center.

At this point all you need to really understand is this pattern. This is  what we will be watching for in Real-Time over the coming days.

The GFS is still on it. Last nights run just inside of 5 days showing deep tropical moisture developing in the SW Caribbean.

Here’s this morning Rainbow and a look at the Wave itself. Again “Pretty Simple” what you see on the right is moving to the left. The wave will eventually run out of property and come to a dead end in the Western Caribbean in about 5 days. (See above NHC 72HR and add 2 Day Travel Time)

The EURO still is not picking up on development. There has been some hints last several runs showing strong Easterly Trades developing but no actual spin up. Part of the problem why the EURO may not be picking up on it is because the wave has been traveling under a blanket of SAL (Saharan Air Layer) and may be hiding from the EURO. Long time followers have heard us say that these waves can sometimes travel undetected because they sometimes travel with dust masks and you have to wait until the pop on the Westside of the 50 Long Line where they can remove the mask once in a better environment away from SAL. Currently SAL is thick on the West side of the 50 and then the next hurdle comes in and that is the passing of the Eastern Carib where trade winds can disrupt surface circulation.

Thats all we got for you for now. NEWLY formed Tropical Storm ALETTA forecast as the 1st Hurricane of the 2018 Season. Stay Tuned for the updates please share our post.

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Continues ALETTA/EPAC BERYL/WSTRN CARIB ?

Morning everyone, POSSIBLE Surf Alert Continues. As mentioned in our previous update the exact details are still trying to get figured out. As for now we will call it a Mid-Atlantic Event. Not sure how much or if any makes it down into East Florida. 1st things first.

We now have verification of late Season Storm SE of Newfoundland. This system has put a possitive charge of Northerly Swell in the water. Seas have now maxed out at around 25 Feet in NNE Swell.

Latest 48HR Swell Forecast 12-13 Second NNE SWELL propagating through SW Atlantic Waters.

Question for Island Surfers now focused on size. We are under a DaBuh-WEE Watch. Paul West Bermuda the one to watch. Buoy Obs 101. First thing we are looking for is swell directional change. Then Period and Size sometimes in reverse. Looking at the data below, We see single pings of East and North. 1st signs of swell directional change. The buoy only has 2 feet of Swell Height out of the SW. Over the next 24hrs we will be watching for MAX Swell height. Buoy needs to have at least 10 foot on it to provide a decent bump for the islands. Weight and Sea.

Next Up will be this front. Rule of Thumb, “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop”. This COULD be setting up as a classic example.

Latest Run of the EURO for Tuesday June 5th. If this were to verify would definately put a shot of NE Swell in the water headed for East Florida with light to offshore winds. It’s a PRAYER at the moment as the GFS has other ideas.

From there we could be watching for another repeat performance with a Tropical System coming out of the Western. Models are hinting and the pattern setting up favors it. This is last nights run of the EURO. If the model were to verify that’s Tropical Storm ALETTA in the Eastern Pacific. Would be their 1st named system of the season. Then the pattern suggest BERYL coming from another “Round the Corner Pattern ”

This is this mornings imagery. Thats a Tropical Wave moving through the Eastern Caribbean.
Although Tropical Cyclone Development is not anticipated with this incoming wave the process remains the same. Next time just add deep convection and it could be on.
Not every Tropical Wave induces Tropical Cyclone Development. In fact most waves pass through harmlessly other that increasing the chance of deep tropical rains. This process will repeat itself multiple times throughout the season.

24HR Surface Forecast out of the National Hurricane Center.

Latest run of the GFS. In the video we said we were showing you the 06Z. It might have been 00Z.
Below breaks our rule of posting outside the 240hr Mark. This image is +276, This is a little over 10 days from now. ALETTA EPAC the beginnings of BERYL WSTRN CARIB.

Now we may have been over confident in this but we did it anyways. We pinned this Tweet 13HRS Ago. Either we know what we are talking about or we will just be lucky if all of the above verifies.

Latest Video Update…..Stay Tuned

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Coming !!!!

Morning Everyone, ALBERTO is in the books, at least as far as landfall is concerned. We will still be tracking his remnants to see what role his ghost may play in the upcoming forecast period.
If you saw our last video update, posted on May 24th ( Latest on 90L INVEST ) we mentioned around the 411 Mark “Ok folks Heres where it gets REALLY interesting”. Well, here it is.

The Elephant March is On. Late season storm developing. This is yesterdays HI-RES. If you watched our first video of the season a week ago today May 20th “Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season” , we talked about how the ULL that crashed into the Bahamas on May 4th was the trigger mechanism that kicked off a, “Chain Event that has lead us to where we are today”.

We are now in another “Chain Event”. Looking at the imagery below take note of the Tele-Connection from the North Atlantic Storm near the Tip of Greenland. This has put a long period swell in the water heading towards the East Atlantic. Drop back from there towards Nova Scotia. That’s a *NEW North Atlantic Storm Developing that you have recently seen posted in our social feeds last 24-48 Hours. This will put a secondary charge of Northerly Swell in the water.

Drop back from there. Alberto making landfall on the Florida Pan Handle. Drop down from there and it’s ALBERTO’S Trough stretching into the ITCZ through the Western Carib for that “Repetitive Pattern” we spoke of. That’s that South to North orientation set up over the Western Carib we continue to be under. What is now Sub-Tropical Depression ALBERTO will continue to draw up tropical moisture into the U.S. because of this.

We have a SOLO Tropical Wave coming out of the MDR into the Eastern Caribbean next 72HRS. We will be monitoring this wave for another possible “Round the Corner” in the upcoming forecast period just like we saw with ALBERTO.

Yesterday we posted this to our Social Feeds just about 24hrs ago. The images are ALBERTO Making land fall in the Florida Pan Handle. A secondary swirl off the NE Florida Coast with the trunk of the elephant (ALBERTOS Trough) down into the Western Caribbean sucking up and taking in water for his march. The bottom right is the EURO at 10 days. (Possible BERYL)

Here is this mornings swell forecast out of NOAA’S OPC for the next 24HRS. You can see the swell generated by the Late Season Storm by the Tip of Greenland mention above in the HI-RES heading for East Atlantic.

Heres is this mornings first visible.
*NEW Storm Developing SE of Nova Scotia South of New Foundland. Look at the OBX. Minority Report Pre-Crime Division. No doubt the Pre-Cogs have seen this.

Here is the 96HR Swell forecast. Seas are forecast to increase excess 25 Feet in N/NE swell developing 12-13 second plus for late season swell heading for the Islands. We will go into a Buoy Watch in about 48HRS.

Then here comes the iffy part. Folks please keep in mind we saw this setting up a week ago.
The EXACT details are yet to be worked out. Latest discussion out of the OPC.
Beginning Saturday ?
“Could Potentially Produce a Long Duration STRONG Onshore Wind Event”

That’s all I have for you for now. Will likely cut a Youtube video update on this so stay tuned.
Going back to ALBERTO. A good forecaster ALWAYS goes back to see what was previously forecast for forecast verification. Back on May 15th and 16th we posted this to our Twitter Feed. We were detailing the pattern in a cryptic way on where we thought ALBERTO was going. It’s why some people just don’t get us, they have issues connecting the dots.

“This ULL (Upper Level Low) Screams 2 Things , Alabama Roll Tide and from a Surfers Perspective A Frames coming to the Gulf of Mexico.”
“A” for ALBERTO

Then when we began to hone in on track we pinned this Tweet. The Top Arrow is at the Florida Alabama Line. Did ALBERTO lift straight up ? NO, he didn’t. He shifted towards the East before rounding back to the Florida Pan Handle.

Based off our initial call May 23rd keeping in mind that forecasts are subject to change. Our margin of error was around 100 miles in 5 days based on recorded landfall location.
It’s Why We Watch—-> You Follow—->DaBuh.

This Mornings Visible. ALBERTO centered over Alabama.

We might not get it all right but I think we did pretty good on our first call of the 2018 Season.
Stay Tuned.

Please….if you follow us on our social feeds please let us know what you think by leaving us a Facebook Review on our Facebook Page. Follow us on Twitter for ALL of our post. We don’t always share everything over to Insta or FB as to not blow up those feeds. Once on Twitter, if we are hitting on an area of interest to you, you can set your notifications to on and you will know when we post in Real-Time. Not of interest turn the notifications to off.

Thanks Again Everybody. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta….. Wurd of DaBuh

First INVEST of the 2018 Season 90L INVEST 50% Chance Next 5 Days

Good Evening, here is the first update on this system now designated 90L Invest located in the NW Caribbean near and over the Tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. As of around 8PM this evening the National Hurricane Center increased the odds of development to 50% Chance of a Tropical Cyclone Developing (TD) that could eventually lead into Tropical Storm Alberto the first name system of the season.

With that said heres is our 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclon Season Disclaimer

DO NOT TAKE ANY INFORMATION FROM OUR WEBSITE OUR IN OUR FORECAST VIDEOS AS GOSPEL NOTHING IN WEATHER ABSOLUTE UNTIL IT HAPPENS IN REAL-TIME.
THIS FORECASTER HAS KNOWN TO HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
AND AS ALWAYS FORECAST SUBJECT TO CHANGE DAILY.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.Hurricane.gov for ALL OFFICIAL Watches and Warnings. If Watches and or Warnings are Issued for your area please heed the advice of ALL local county state emergency management officials.

Start you off with todays HI-RES. This may be a bit much for some.
The EURO model has consistently shown a trend over the last several runs to go up and to the left. We can now see that in the imagery. If you watched our video we talked about Climo says Up or Up and to the Right but we talked about how sometimes storms will go against convention wisdom.
We now have support for this “Up and to the Left” from official forecast maps out of the OPC and NHC. The GFS continues to trail off to the right with a small vorticity spin that explodes as it heads towards Florida and we can now see that also as a possibility. It is possible to see Main Vort spin move into the Gulf AND the little explosive vort the GFS shows wrap around the corner of Wstrn Cuba in towards the Keys or SW Florida.

Let me tell you what you are looking at. Remember although the image is still the atmosphere is fluid. You have to put what you see into motion in your mind. If you don’t understand general flow you won’t get below.  Late Season North Atlantic Storm Developing. Area of Low Pressure dropping into the Atlantic from Great Lakes Region and off the Mid-Atlantic up towards the Tip of Greenland.

The remnants of the first Tropical Wave of the Season. We talked about this in our video as a possible kicker. This could be the kicker GFS is trying to identify. We will have to see whats left at first visible light tomorrow. 90L Invest on Da Yuke.

This is a Super-Zoom of the ESTRN Side of the Tip of the Yuke/Gulfo de Hondura. This went from this to this to this——-> (Next Image)

In a about 5-6Hrs. This is the MAIN Vort Spin SLOWLY Developing.

The National Hurricane Center recently analyzed a 1OO9MB LOW just prior to image above.

The CURRENT official 96HR surface forecast call out of NOAA’S OPC is for the Low to move up into the Central Gulf and then onshore over Louisiana. The directional arrow is towards the left.

Heres this afternoons run of the EURO. You can see it appears NOAA is closely following the EURO model solution for 90L INVEST. As mentioned above and seen in the HI-RES imagery above there is Medium to Strong support that “UP or Up And to the Left” will verify. THE EXACT details are unclear at the moment going into day 5. It is possible this system could stall meander hang around for a few days dumping copious amounts of rain in its wake.

Florida Pan Handle Surfers no change in the wind forecast as of now. As detailed in our video discussion. PROLONGED period onshore winds coming in deep from Carib and Bay of C.
SSW to SSE Flow East-side of the circle. (OH)

We will leave 90L alone overnight to see what it looks like in the morning. Stay tuned in for that.
We will likely cut a video tomorrow morning after we get a few frames of visible stellite imagery and a chance to digest the overnight model runs.

Looking down wind this is the EURO just inside 10 days from now. Last couple of runs the EURO has been dropping hints at another “Round the Corner” type system coming. Incidentally the Low centered over Northern Alabama would be Ex-Alberto/90L INVEST. This image is for June 1st, OFFICIAL start of the 2018 season.

Image below from earlier this morning and is the 2nd Tropical Wave of the season. Look back up at the EURO above. Look at this image. Back up again. You should be able to put 2 and 2 together.
There some other interesting features behind this that we will be watching crossing AFRIKA next several days as well.

Thats it for now, follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates.
Thanks for following.