First Signs of Spring for 2018

This recent Arctic blast may not have you thinking of Spring but we are seeing the first signs in the most recent model runs of the GFS. Meteorological Spring begins March 1st, the Equinox March 20th. Given these dates, 41 days until the 1st of March, and 61 until the 20th, the atmosphere doesn’t necessarily go by dates. Sometimes spring comes early sometimes it comes late. First things first. This really hasn’t been a typical winter pattern and that has translated over as surf goes. Yes we have had a couple of runs of good surf with the passing of Winter Storm Grayson  and the recent run of surf over the last few days. We typically see Low Pressure moving out of the Gulf of Mexico out towards the OBX and kick off into a Hurricane Force low in the Atlantic, or an Alberta Clipper dropping into the Mid-ATLC region then into the Atlantic kicking off as a Hurricane Force Low. These are the ones that send the Long Period Groundswells to the Bahamas and throughout the Eastern Caribbean.

With that said, it brings me to an old saying we like to use. Sometimes like in History Weather Repeats itself. There are many examples through time. The most recent example is yesterday as we had a Hurricane Force Low kick off the OBX.

Flashback to January 18th 2017 Area of Low Pressure moving across the OBX….

That would later become a Hurricane Force Low 3 days later after dropping SE then lifting back towards the North. The results this time however would be far different from the one yesterday. 2017 sent HUGE swells towards the Islands.

Lets jump back to current. Yesterdays Hurricane Force Low has jumped way out towards Nova Scotia. Because of its rapid departure it didn’t get a chance to stay over our portion of the Atlantic to generate a booming swell. Max Sea Heights got up there near the 30 Foot mark but was primarily in WSW Swell.

However it did create a nice pulse of Northerly now inbound towards the Islands. Latest NOAA 24hr Swell Forecast.

As of Report Time……10AM EST

South Hatteras Buoy- NNE Swell 8 Feet 11 Seconds, down from 10 Feet
Paul West Bermuda- North Swell  14 Feet 12 Seconds, down 1 from 15
East Canaveral- ENE 4 Feet 11 Seconds (The East is left over from OMEGA Blocking High from our previous website update)
NE Bahama Buoy- North Swell 13 Feet 12 Seconds (Buoy showing slight increasing trend)
South Bermuda Buoy- NW Swell 7 Feet 9 Seconds (This Buoy is the outside indicator Buoy for PR) and it’s coming up fast and hard and showing first signs of swell rotation from ENE to NW.
So if you are in the Bahamas over to PR looks like a solid bump is now inbound.

So here comes what looks like the first signs of Spring. Mind you its just a sign. This is the GFS for week from today. High Pressure moving into the Mid-ATLC. This will get some NE winds going.
Day 7

Then rotating to more East on Day 8 with some Northerly flow coming off Nova Scotia and NF as an area of Low Pressure Develops.

Day 9 Winds Rotating ESE into the SE as Bermuda High Sets Up (Sign of Spring Coming) Low pressure develops on the backside. This should produce another inbound swell for Eastern Caribbean.

Then going into Day 10. True Bermuda High with nice fetch of ESE trade.

Heres a zoom of the GOMEX and another sign Spring is on the way. When ever we see convection start to pop over the Gulf this time of year, Tornado Season is just around the corner. It coincides with the onset of Spring (March) so we say its the “March” towards the peak of Tornando Season which is in May.
Stay Tuned

Real-Time Phase of OMEGA Blocking High Developing

Here’s the latest forecast update. We are now entering the Real-Time Phase of an OMEGA Blocking High developing out in the Atlantic next several days. What is an OMEGA Blocking High ? In Summer, we would call it a Bermuda High. Thats where an area of High Pressure develops out near Bermuda and sits and spins for days on end. This is what gives the Atlantic that Summer Time ESE Trade Wind Swell. In Winter, we call it a Blocking High. When its LARGE we call it an OMEGA Blocking High. It “Blocks” areas of Low Pressure from moving out into the Atlantic essentially putting up a wall. Low Pressure Bumps into the wall and then gets shunted towards the North and Northeast.

Heres the GFS for Saturday. The Low you see near the OBX/Mid-ATLC is partial energy of the Low thats currently moving through California this morning. Its going to trek across the U.S. next 3-4 days and bump into this wall of High Pressure with no place to go but up. The High is “Blocking” it.
Here’s how you think about the High. Think of it as a car tire spinning clockwise, the tread touching the ocean surface. Because the tread is so wide it is moving a greater area of water (Fetch).

Here’s the GFS at Day 7, week from today. The High has shifted slightly towards the West but still WIDE Fetch of ESE Trade Winds but here is where things could get interesting. Notice the difference in precipitation above and below out in the Central Atlantic. Models have been hinting at a weak area of Low Pressure may try and develop that would allow some tightening of the pressure gradient. This would increase some size of the ESE Swell.  Another High moving in turning winds NE North of the Bahamas.

Then here’s day 9. MIND YOU, there is not alot of confidence outside of 7 days at the moment. There hasn’t been alot of model agreement as of late. The only thing with confidence at the moment is the OMEGA Blocking High. GFS develops an area of Low Pressure allowing more Northerly Swell to get into the mix of the ESE Swell coming.

Thats the model forecast. For now here’s whats happening now. This image is from around day break. The weak Low that moved into the GOMEX bumping of Florida Pan Handle surf yesterday is forecast to dissipate. Weak area of spin near the Bahamas looks to retrograde back towards the Florida East coast increasing the pressure gradient next 24hrs or so. You can already see signs of it. Look at that little white dot over Central Florida. It should move out at the same time as the spin out near the Bahamas retro’s.

Latest Wind Wave forecast out of the National Hurricane Centers Tropical Atlantic Forecast Analysis Branch showing seas increasing into double digit territory next 48HRS just East of the Central Florida Coast.

Latest Swell Forecast out of the Ocean Prediction Center over the next 3-4 days showing ESE wind swell developing with High Pressure Southerly return flow into New England.

Here’s what that Southerly Return Flow looks like. Image for Friday. Looks like West Florida gets into the mix as well.

Thats all I have time for at the moment. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.
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T-Minus 72HRS for Monster Storm Developing

Happy New Year 2018 to all of our DaBuh.com followers. If you have been reading our updates we have been advertising in our updates of an “Explosive Period” and a “Chain Event” setting up for the North Atlantic Waters. Highlighted below is from our post on December 18th. Thats 2 Weeks ago for all those nay sayers who think you can’t forecast, or at least have some kind of idea of what may becoming down the pike.

December 18th 2017
“Forecaster Note: Active Phase Ahead with what appears to be 2 More Hurricane Force Lows Developing near and around the South Tip of Greenland Upcoming Forecast Period. Prolonged Period of Westerly Storm Force Winds and Wide Fetch Possible. Seas excess 40 Feet ? Stay Tuned. See Images bottom of the post.”

We are now in that Real-Time phase with the current Hurricane Force Low South of the Tip of Greenland. This Hurricane Force Low is forecast to produce seas in excess of 50 Feet West of Ireland next 24HRS or so. As this storm moves off towards the East, it is at the tail end of the trailing front we will be watching for a NEW area of Low Pressure to develop off the coast of Florida.

Here’s the larger view.

The overnight run of the EURO showing Low Pressure Developing East of Florida Wednesday into Thursday.

Then Rapidly Intensifying into a MONSTER Hurricane Force Low on Friday just East of Nantucket. It is important to remember that these images are still, and are only a moment in time. The Atmosphere is fluid meaning constant motion. The EURO is in 24HR increments so you can see that this Low travels quite the distance in 24HRS.

The current official forecast out of the Ocean Prediction Center shows this Low passing the OBX going into Thursday.

We are seeing the first signs of turn around swell in the latest swell model forecast. Seas are forecast to increase at this point in excess of 25 Feet and as the system explodes we are likely to see seas increase to excess 40.

There are some negatives to the Surf Forecast. So if you get skunked, don’t shoot the messenger. Remember just cause its not breaking at your house it doesn’t mean it won’t be going off at someone elses. The people who get skunked will be the same people who claim I’m hyping not realizing that it’s just there mind is too small.

I am waiting for some updated data to come in and the next set of model runs. I will likely add a Youtube Video forecast to this update giving you more detail on this “Chain Event” and how Atmospheric Flow works this time of year. We have finally made it to a more typical Winter Type Pattern. This Hurricane Force Low that is forecast to develop will likely be the END to this “Chain Event” and a likely pattern shift will soon be to follow.  Stay Tuned

Explosive Period Setting Up

Happy belated Merry Christmas, Happy Holiday’s and Bring on the New Year 2018. Wishing all our followers the absolute best for the New Year and thank you for following DaBuh.com

We are now entering what appears to be an explosive period for this side of the Northern Hemi and the beginning phase of this “Chain Event” we advertised in our social feeds several days ago. Start you off with the current Satellite imagery. This is the time of year where we can get tele-connection from the NW Pacific, into and through North Amerika, and into the North Atlantic. Although the image is still, the atmosphere is fluid. And if you were to put this image into motion, everything you see here is essentially moving from left to right North of the ITCZ. We have a Hurricane Force Low that moved up from Japan yesterday, and a developing Hurricane Force Low moving up and over Newfoundland to near the Southern Tip of Greenland next 48HRS. We call that “Mirroring”. Both will slide to the right over the next 96HRS while weakening.

This puts swell direction the same for both theaters over the next 96HRS.
Latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast for the Pacific, WNW Swell Component.

And Latest NOAA 96HR Swell Forecast for the Atlantic, WNW Swell Component. Both theaters with WNW Swell component again mirroring each other. But for the SW Atlantic Waters, here comes the turn with look out below.

Here’s the “Chain Event” developing in Real-Time. This is the 1st Hurricane Force Low (Satellite image above) with what appears to be likely, 2 more coming. As this spins off towards the right it spins up another Weak Low tail end of the front along the chain (Front)

Latest NOAA 96HR Wind Wave Forecast. Image in Meters. Seas increasing 10-12 Feet East of Florida behind NE Flow.
Latest Marine Forecast South of Lat 31 and the likely start of a Possible BIG BLOW Coming.
Seas moving into Double Digits.

Its after 96HRS where things get interesting. There is a large spread between the GFS and EURO. This is last nights run of the EURO for +120HRS takes the Weak Low East of Florida mentioned above and combines it with a Clipper Like Low then moving it up towards Newfoundland.
Image is for New Years Eve.

Then Into Hurricane Force Low #2, New Years Day.

Then the EURO develops another Weak Low at the tail end of that front, (Chain) East of Florida cranking up NE Winds once again. Image is for Wednesday January 3rd, 8 days from now. The EURO then moves the Low off towards the East with no fan fare.
The GFS takes the Weak Low expected East of Florida mentioned above and sends it up into the North Atlantic Passing Well SE of Newfoundland. OTS (Out to Sea) if you will, as the 2ND Hurricane Force Low, but then drops the Clipper Energy (mentioned with the EURO above” in behind the departing Low while intensifying this into the 3rd Hurricane Force Low for NATLC Waters. Thats a tightly packed P-Grad from New England down into Florida. Image is for January 1st, going into the 2nd.  So as you can see both models are hinting at a BIG Blow coming inside of 8 Days.
Alot of water is getting ready to get on the move. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates. There will be changes in the models over the upcoming days and a better handle on winds will be coming in the updated forecast packages as we head into the weekend.
Stay Tuned.

Possible Surf Alert Setting Up

Forecaster Note: The post below is covering SW Atlantic Waters. Will do our best to put together a post for NATLC . Active Phase Ahead with what appears to be 2 More Hurricane Force Lows Developing near and around the South Tip of Greenland Upcoming Forecast Period. Prolonged Period of Westerly Storm Force Winds and Wide Fetch Possible. Seas excess 40 Feet ? Stay Tuned. See Images bottom of the post.

Alright guys and Gals here we go. Would like to take a moment for any new followers, or first time readers, or to those who may be new to our social feeds. What we post on our social feeds are often times model ideas. Please read the text portion of our post. If we say “Outside of 10 days”, or “1 RUN” then you should know, everyone should know, that when talking about the forecast and forecast model reliability, confidence begins to increases inside the 5 day mark. How we do it is we analyze a 10 day period, watch for trends in the models in the back to back model runs and verify what we see in the imagery on a daily basis. We put those ideas on our social feeds. Once we have confidence inside the 10 day period of a potential event coming up we put our full thoughts out here in an website post.  So please don’t take what we post on our social feeds as the Gospel. There is always, always, always, the element of the unknown. In forecast weather nothing is a certainty. The saying goes, “Nothing in Weather Absolute Until it Happens in Real-Time.” Having years of repetitive Real-Time observation of atmospheric flow and an understanding on how atmospheric flow works helps.

With that said, here comes the Flip. The SeaSaw we alluded to in our social media post a few days ago. If you read our last update (Coming up on 2 Weeks Ago) the 2 things that come to the front is, The prolonged period of Lake Atlantic and flatness for Majority U.S. East Coast Surfers (CHECK)  behind a predominantly WNW Swell Component setting up in the NATLC (North Atlantic) (CHECK)
NOAA 24hr Swell Forecast

The next thing we talked about in that update was for some hope of Long Board Peeler behind High Pressure Build in the East Atlantic. There is change since that last update. High Pressure Wind Swell still on tap but trend is now moving to Possible Surf Alert Setting Up. Models have been consistent on placement of moderate High Pressure in the East Atlantic  for over a week now and we are approaching the Real-Time Phase in the atmosphere now inside the 5 day Mark.
Image below is the GFS +120 (5 Days X 24hrs)
For those who don’t know what they are looking at.
High Pressure Parked East Central Atlantic. Thats ESE Flow starting up.
High Pressure rolling out into the Atlantic with a weak OBX Low now forecast to move away from the coast next 72-96 hours. Whats left of it is depicted below on the backside of Bermuda. This will add some NE Fetch into the mix. Storm over the Interior U.S. creating a moderate Southerly Suckup into New England backed by High Pressure.

Heres the Weak OBX LOW in the latest wind wave forecast out of NOAA OPC next 72-96HRS to help get the ball rolling. NE Winds developing 20-25KTS Seas Increasing 10 Feet in mixed swell.
Image in meters. NE Fetch then rolls out as depicted above.

Here’s Day 7 Christmas Day. High Pressure Advancing West Into the Central Atlantic. Nice Fetch and Multiple Days of ESE Flow gets that side of the Atlantic heading this way in positive wind swell direction and production.

The Possible Surf Alert sets up after Christmas. This is the EURO for December 27th, 9 Days from now showing High Pressure still in control Central Atlantic with a moderate NE Surge working down the coast from New England. Thats NE Winds 20-25KTS.

This is the GFS Same Period faster and more aggressive than the EURO

Either Way this is a positive trend and a Pattern Shift away from that primarily WNW Swell component we are currently under now. Stay Tuned looks like we will be stepping up our updates as the forecast begins to unfold.

North Atlantic Followers. This is 00Z GFS Day 7 (Week from Today)

and Day 11 Wide Fetch Storm Force Westerly Winds.

Folks it’s Christmas. We do our best to bring you the latest in the forecast. We pride ourselves on accuracy. We do this free of charge and have no sponsors. If you have ever scored by reading one of our post because it allowed you to make plans in advance to get it, please consider hitting our Tip Jar by visiting the Pay Pal Link on our Home Page. Thanks for following. Merry Christmas Happy Holidays and heres to a prosperous New Year. Chickie Dimain DaBuh.com

Twin Storm Force Lows

Ok guys here’s what ended up verifying out of our call on a Possible Major Swell Event we have been advertising here on DaBuh.com. We now have Twin Storm Force Lows churning in the North Central Atlantic. The first one developed yesterday just West of the Azores and the other on the backside of Bermuda. The negatives are the systems have set up a bit further to the East than when we first started to look into this over a week ago putting U.S. East Coast locations further away from the swell source. The other negative Storm Force vs Hurricane Force although winds with Storm Force Low West of the Azores did max out to gust to 60KTS

And here’s this mornings first visible as the sun came up this morning. The Storm Force Low East of Newfoundland very picturesque. Seas are forecast to increase to excess 35 Feet next 24-48 hours as it moves up to the NE to NW of Ireland. This will in turn reinforce Northerly Swell coming out of the North Atlantic. The Storm Force Low East of Bermuda has current MAX Seas of 26 Feet qualifying for a DaBuh.com Major Swell Event however majority swell component aimed at the Bahamas out past PR. This will in turn, turn the majority of the North Atlantic into a Northerly Swell component.
Latest 48HR Swell Forecast out of NOAA’S OPC  showing NE Swell 12-13 seconds with NW 15-18 seconds headed towards AFRIKA.

We have gone into a Buoy Watch. Stay tuned to our social feeds for the Real-Time updates.
As of report time 10:30 AM EST
South Hatteras Buoy: ESE Winds 20-25Kts NE Swell starting to show around 2 Feet 10 Seconds.
Paul West Bermuda: East winds 5-10Kts NE Swell rising now to 7 Feet 10 Seconds.
South Bermuda Buoy: NNE Winds 15-20Kts NE Swell 6 Feet around 10 seconds.
NE Bahamas: East winds 15-20Kts NE Swell 3 Feet 11 Seconds.
PR Buoy : ENE winds 20-25Kts 3 Feet of NE Swell 11 Seconds.

U.S. East Coast surfers. Get what ever is coming over the next 3-4 days. Models hinting at A PROLONGED period of Westerly Wind component coming that will create Lake Atlantic conditions for the Majority of the U.S. East Coast locations in the extended forecast period. Cold and flat not what we want to hear but it looks like its coming. Slight hope coming from STRONG High Pressure developing in the East Atlantic this weekend into next week for some clean peeler LB waves for select locations.  All for now, stay tuned in for the updates.

Entering Real-Time Phase of Possible Major Swell Event

Today marks the Official End of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.
If you read our previous update, this also marks the transitional period of season change from Fall to Winter or from Tropical Cyclone Season to ExtraTopical Cyclone Season. This will run us into the end of February or there about. Extra Extra Read all about it.

Now entering the Real-Time Phase of a Possible Major Swell Event Coming. If it doesn’t pan out for you where you live don’t shoot the messenger. Please remember the forecast challenges we detailed in our last post. We do our best to provide you with the latest forecast based on model guidance going out at least 10 days and pattern recognition. I promise you know one else on the internet is putting out this info in the way we detail it for you here on DaBuh.com in hopes that you score good surf.

With that said, first signs of Long Period NE Groundswell showing up in NOAA’s Swell Forecast Maps as Low Pressure begins to develop out in the Atlantic next 72-96HRS.

Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. This time of year is all about understanding Atmospheric Flow. Weak Low Pressure moving out away from the Bahamas up to the North Central Atlantic will associate with the Storm Force Low that developed. Thats the Red Arrow SE of Newfoundland in the image below.
This Storm Force Low has dropped SE and has produced seas in excess of 30 Feet. This mornings Wind Wave Analysis out of NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center showing MAX Seas now at 35 Feet. This exceeds the original forecast vs Real-Time and it appears models were a bit under-done. Again one of the many forecast challenges for this time of year is model performance showing you one thing one minute another the next. It’s what happens in Real-Time that matters.
Latest Swell Forecast 14-16 second swell periods developing. Like we discussed in our previous update its not about the Storm itself its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. Half the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component with Easterly building across the top.
Heres the latest 96HR surface forecast out of the OPC edits mine.
Key word is “Absorbed” here. This will open up NE Fetch.

This is how that looks in the latest 96HR  swell forecast. Thats 8-10 seconds building into the Mid-Atlantic region. As of right now the forecast is calling for GALE with seas in excess of 20 Feet. The issue at hand is current models are further East and weaker with the next system coming in.

Heres the latest forecast discussion out of the OPC.

NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
255 AM EST THU 30 NOV 2017
Models should start to get a better handle on this next system coming over the next 24HRS or so as better sampling of atmospheric conditions over the U.S. will begin to take place. Wish we had more for you but thats it for now. Keep in mind that just because models show a further East location and a weaker system it doesn’t mean they cant switch back heading into the weekend. As of now looks like a large Northerly Swell heading for the Caribbean. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates and thanks for following our forecast updates.

Big Swell Setting Up for the Atlantic

Ok here we go finally something worth posting about. In our last post November 9th we talked about the challenges this time of year when it comes to forecasting. Transitioning away from Tropical Season into Extra Tropical Season. The switch from Hurricane Season in the tropics, to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic. Think of this if you will, as Hurricane Season in reverse. Which we are now 4 days away from closing out the 2017 season. What we mean by that is during Hurricane Season, we look for areas of Low Pressure moving off Afrika into the Atlantic that can develop into a Tropical Cyclone. During Winter we go into reverse, looking for areas of Low Pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that can rapidly intensify into a Hurricane Force Low or a Extra-Tropical Cyclone. The difference between the two here. Depending on the size, shape, pattern and location of these Hurricane Force Lows they can at times produce what we call is a Major Swell Event.
That is, seas in excess of 25 Feet creating swell periods of 13-15 seconds plus with a majority of land locations receiving large surf conditions. Remember just because we say Major Swell Event and it doesn’t break at your location it doesn’t mean its not going off at someone else’s.

Ok with that said Models have been hinting at a Major Swell Event coming in the upcoming forecast period. Many of you recently saw our post that models are trying to go on lock with 2 Large areas of Low pressure coming to the Atlantic. The pattern is just starting to setup. Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. We have been talking alot recently about AZORE Lows going back to that November 9th post. Here we have another one. This one has been out there for about 72hrs.
And has put a charge of NE Swell in the water heading for the Caribbean. As of report time the South Bermuda Buoy showing small scale NE swell 3-4 Feet at around 14 seconds. Nothing Major but its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. If you look back at the image above the Low that moved out of Florida that dumped the heavy rains has now slid up towards Nova Scotia putting a WSTRLY Swell component in the water.
But thats ok because a NEW AZORE Low is now forecast. This will put another charge of NE Swell in the water reinforcing the current NE Swell setting up for that Possible Major Swell Event coming. This NEW AZORE Low is now forecast as a Storm Force Low next 72-96HRS.
Latest NOAA 96HR Surface forecast.Seas are forecast to 30 Feet next 72-96HRS. Image is in Meters, 9 Meters, 30 Feet.
Then heres where things get interesting. Show you the difference CURRENTLY between the GFS and EURO going back to size, shape, pattern and location mentioned above. The current run of the EURO shows weak low pressure moving out of the Bahamas on Day 5 ( Friday 12-1)and the AZORE Low weakening.
Then on Day 8 ( Monday 12-4) 982MB LOW Centered on Nova Scotia. This would primarily send swell to the Caribbean some into the Bahamas but by passing U.S. East Coast Locations in a NW Swell Component. 
But lets look at the GFS for next Monday. GFS with a weaker Low but more NNE Fetch reinforced by the ESTRLY Fetch from AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack. This would create a positive in swell production.
But then look what happens on Tuesday Day 9. GFS wants to Retro the Low back down towards the South a tad while strengthening it. This would open up more NE Fetch for U.S. East Coast while aiming a Strong Northerly Swell at the Bahamas over to the Virgin Islands. and again keeping the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component. If the GFS were to verify that would be seas like the current AZORE Low to 30 plus Feet but now U.S. East Coast closer to the swell source.
Still along ways out so lots of time to watch. 12Z Model runs are just coming out so stay tuned to our social feeds for the updates. In the short term it looks like some increasing High pressure wind swell into Florida starting around Mid-Week with the Caribbean scoring off this developing Storm Force Low out near the AZORES.

Last 3 Weeks of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

Sorry for the non updates as of late as there has just not been much to talk about. This is the time of year in terms of forecast where it becomes a bit more challenging as we transition away from Tropical Season to Ex-Tropical Season (Winter). In layman’s terms that transitional period from Hurricanes in the tropics during tropical season to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic during Winter. Same effect for the Pacific basin. Winter is the time of year that produces Big Swells in both theaters behind Hurricane Force Lows developing in the Northern Waters. This is why Hawaiian Contest Season runs November through January and everybody trying to head to PR and the surrounding Islands for surf during these months as well. Unfortunately based on conditions of the Islands alot of people who normally go may skip this year.

It is also that time of year where models struggle and become unreliable outside of 7 days. Many of you may remember at the beginning of the 2017 season the GFS showing fake hurricanes each time moving it to the back end of each run. Then by the time we got towards the peak of the 2017 season the GFS figured it out and became fairly accurate beating out the EURO on several occasions. Well, the GFS has recently been up to its old tricks and the EURO has been showing something different each run.

We are now 21 days away from the OFFICIAL end of the 2017 season and up to RINA in the names list. Next system if one were to develop would be named SEAN. There are hints of the possibility. The EURO showed it for 1 run as a developing OBX Low but has since backed off. The GFS was never on board. Either way increasing seas and swell heights look to get underway for this side of the Atlantic Basin starting tomorrow. This is yesterdays HI-RES. Remember this pattern come May come June of 2018. This type of pattern is known to produce tropical cyclones at the beginning of the season.
That is. “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts, Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.”
That saying is year round, just has different effects in Winter vs Tropical Season. Again image below yesterdays HI-RES. That’s RINA well to the back side of Bermuda. High pressure to the right. Cold Front dipping through the lower 48 with areas of spin down in the Caribbean. The front is about to suck up that energy to the Bahamas behind building High Pressure increasing the pressure gradient. The other old saying for this time of year in association with fronts and pattern is “West to East Flow (Jet Stream) produces OBX Low.”
For those who follow us on our Social Feeds you know we have been talking about a POSSIBLE OBX Low developing for the last several days. Heres the latest discussion out of NOAA’S Ocean Prediction Center.

Switch you to Real-Time. This mornings imagery. Alot of people think we just draw arrows on imagery or don’t understand atmospheric flow. So let me tell you what you are looking at here. We recently have been posting on our social feeds (Mainly Twitter) about an AZORE Blocking High Developing. Here it is in Real-Time. Thats the H out to the right. As the West to East Flow develops across the Lower 48 it blocks the energy from moving West to East. It’s like bumping into a wall creating a block in the Atmosphere. Because of its Clockwise flow its shunting the energy to the North Atlantic combined with that West to East Flow. Latest forecast showing the area currently over the OBX as a developing GALE being absorbed into area near Great Lakes and SE Canada as developing Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland next 48-72HRS.

Latest NOAA 48HR Surface Forecast

Walk you through the latest run of the GFS. Image is for Sunday with New High building trough New England with continued NE Flow into Florida Weak Low Pressure trough into the Bahamas AZORE Blocking High putting Easterly Fetch in the water combined with Easterly Trade Wind Flow. Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland.
GFS for Monday take note of Developing Low South of AZORES. This could add more ENE Fetch over the Long Term. 
Then on Wednesday, thats inside of 7 days the GFS develops a NEW Low just off of Nova Scotia. This would put some longer period swell in the water.
Then take you out to Day 9, November 18th. Mind you not alot of confidence at the moment past 7 days but another Hurricane Force Low NW of Ireland. This would put more Long Period NE Swell in the water. By itself would be no big deal for Western Atlantic Waters but add the NEW AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack and thats alot of fetch AND unfortunately cold water mixing into the Atlantic.
Thats it for now. We will likely cut a video update on this so stay tuned. For Now follow us on our social feeds for updates. Latest NOAA 48HR Wind Wave Forecast Image in Meters. Seas Increasing 15-18 Feet off the OBX in NE Flow.

ES EN FUEGO !!! Northern Hemi Cap is On Fire

EXTREMELY active Northern Hemi Cap, Cap is on Fire. Clear sign of season change showing with an explosion in the West and North Pacific and the Pacific Jet has begun to crank up. Early signs of Pineapple Express and the 1st Winter Type Caliber Swell for the Pacific confirms the basin is extremely active. Can be no doubt contest season has arrived for Hawaii as we head into November. But yet it comes with bad news as it appears a very wet and dangerous period may be setting up with possible heavy rains coming behind weak low pressure coming out of the ITCZ.
Weak Areas of Low Pressure Known to Produce Copious Amounts of Rain.
Current look at the basin. Storm Gulf of Alaska….. Storm Moving into the Bearing Sea with Typhoon LAN headed towards Japan. LAN currently a Category 1 forecast to reach Category 4 Super Typhoon Status next 36hrs under a RAPID intensification phase. Speaking of RAPID intensification over on the Atlantic side. 2 Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. More on that below. 
From there weakening is forecast for LAN to Category 2 as it makes contact with Japan passing near Tokyo next 72 to 96HRS.

From there LAN looks to morph into an intense area of Low Pressure over the Aleutians next 5-7 days. GFS showing 951 Hurricane Force Low at 150HRS….
And dropping to 936MB just inside 7 Days.
Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast showing the 2 Swells in the water. One from Storm Gulf of Alaska and the other from the storm getting ready to enter the Bearing Sea currently located NE of Japan. Seas with this system forecast excess 35 Feet next 48 in WNW Swell developing. Both swells with 20 plus second front runners. Now add LAN morphing into Hurricane Force Low in 5 days.
Stay tuned for updates.

BUT WAIT…..There’s more.
The North Atlantic is also on fire with two Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. If you add OPHELIA to the mix, this will make 3 Hurricane Force Lows inside of 10 days for the basin, 2 of which will have had direct affect on Ireland, Ophelia and new incoming Hurricane Force Low.
Hers’s his mornings Look. Area East of Newfoundland on its way to Ireland. And the GALE developing East of OBX and the Large Scale Low moving across Canada, will morph into the 2nd Hurricane Force Low South of the Tip of Greenland.

Latest NOAA 24HR Forecast. Seas increasing to excess 40 FEET next 48.
Image in meters. This followed by….
Sub 950MB 00Z GFS just inside of 96HRS. This is seas likely in excess of 40 Feet as well. If you saw our last update we talked about how at times both basins, NPAC and NATLC, can mirror each other. Think about what you just read. Thats 3 Storms for NATLC and 3 Storms for NPAC.
Mirror Mirror on Da Wall…….

Heres the latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast.

BUT WAIT……..Theres more.
We are still in Tropical Cyclone Season for the Atlantic. In our previous post we discussed possibly seeing PHILIPPE coming out of the Western Carib around the 24th of October. It now appears the front wont get deep enough and pulls up short developing an area of Low Pressure at the tail end along the Gulf Coast and spin up towards the NNE. Image is for Wednesday October 25th.
Then followed by a secondary Low 48hrs later. Image below is for Friday October 27th.
Long time followers know to “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.” The exact details will start to get worked out over the next 72HRSor so. October 25th is 6 days away and the 27th is 8 days away. Both systems are likely to put a STRONG Southerly Suckup in the water and ALL MARINERS with travel plans along the East U.S. Coast next week she recheck their travel plans.   
Regardless of any tropical development coming out of the Western Caribbean there is a strong likely hood just like we saw 3 weeks ago a very wet and dangerous period setting up for Central Amerika with Flash Floods and Life Threatening Mudslides.

Stay tuned will likely cut a video soon maybe after the 12Z Runs later today.
Will add it to the top of this post.
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