Last 3 Weeks of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

Sorry for the non updates as of late as there has just not been much to talk about. This is the time of year in terms of forecast where it becomes a bit more challenging as we transition away from Tropical Season to Ex-Tropical Season (Winter). In layman’s terms that transitional period from Hurricanes in the tropics during tropical season to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic during Winter. Same effect for the Pacific basin. Winter is the time of year that produces Big Swells in both theaters behind Hurricane Force Lows developing in the Northern Waters. This is why Hawaiian Contest Season runs November through January and everybody trying to head to PR and the surrounding Islands for surf during these months as well. Unfortunately based on conditions of the Islands alot of people who normally go may skip this year.

It is also that time of year where models struggle and become unreliable outside of 7 days. Many of you may remember at the beginning of the 2017 season the GFS showing fake hurricanes each time moving it to the back end of each run. Then by the time we got towards the peak of the 2017 season the GFS figured it out and became fairly accurate beating out the EURO on several occasions. Well, the GFS has recently been up to its old tricks and the EURO has been showing something different each run.

We are now 21 days away from the OFFICIAL end of the 2017 season and up to RINA in the names list. Next system if one were to develop would be named SEAN. There are hints of the possibility. The EURO showed it for 1 run as a developing OBX Low but has since backed off. The GFS was never on board. Either way increasing seas and swell heights look to get underway for this side of the Atlantic Basin starting tomorrow. This is yesterdays HI-RES. Remember this pattern come May come June of 2018. This type of pattern is known to produce tropical cyclones at the beginning of the season.
That is. “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts, Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.”
That saying is year round, just has different effects in Winter vs Tropical Season. Again image below yesterdays HI-RES. That’s RINA well to the back side of Bermuda. High pressure to the right. Cold Front dipping through the lower 48 with areas of spin down in the Caribbean. The front is about to suck up that energy to the Bahamas behind building High Pressure increasing the pressure gradient. The other old saying for this time of year in association with fronts and pattern is “West to East Flow (Jet Stream) produces OBX Low.”
For those who follow us on our Social Feeds you know we have been talking about a POSSIBLE OBX Low developing for the last several days. Heres the latest discussion out of NOAA’S Ocean Prediction Center.

Switch you to Real-Time. This mornings imagery. Alot of people think we just draw arrows on imagery or don’t understand atmospheric flow. So let me tell you what you are looking at here. We recently have been posting on our social feeds (Mainly Twitter) about an AZORE Blocking High Developing. Here it is in Real-Time. Thats the H out to the right. As the West to East Flow develops across the Lower 48 it blocks the energy from moving West to East. It’s like bumping into a wall creating a block in the Atmosphere. Because of its Clockwise flow its shunting the energy to the North Atlantic combined with that West to East Flow. Latest forecast showing the area currently over the OBX as a developing GALE being absorbed into area near Great Lakes and SE Canada as developing Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland next 48-72HRS.

Latest NOAA 48HR Surface Forecast

Walk you through the latest run of the GFS. Image is for Sunday with New High building trough New England with continued NE Flow into Florida Weak Low Pressure trough into the Bahamas AZORE Blocking High putting Easterly Fetch in the water combined with Easterly Trade Wind Flow. Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland.
GFS for Monday take note of Developing Low South of AZORES. This could add more ENE Fetch over the Long Term. 
Then on Wednesday, thats inside of 7 days the GFS develops a NEW Low just off of Nova Scotia. This would put some longer period swell in the water.
Then take you out to Day 9, November 18th. Mind you not alot of confidence at the moment past 7 days but another Hurricane Force Low NW of Ireland. This would put more Long Period NE Swell in the water. By itself would be no big deal for Western Atlantic Waters but add the NEW AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack and thats alot of fetch AND unfortunately cold water mixing into the Atlantic.
Thats it for now. We will likely cut a video update on this so stay tuned. For Now follow us on our social feeds for updates. Latest NOAA 48HR Wind Wave Forecast Image in Meters. Seas Increasing 15-18 Feet off the OBX in NE Flow.

ES EN FUEGO !!! Northern Hemi Cap is On Fire

EXTREMELY active Northern Hemi Cap, Cap is on Fire. Clear sign of season change showing with an explosion in the West and North Pacific and the Pacific Jet has begun to crank up. Early signs of Pineapple Express and the 1st Winter Type Caliber Swell for the Pacific confirms the basin is extremely active. Can be no doubt contest season has arrived for Hawaii as we head into November. But yet it comes with bad news as it appears a very wet and dangerous period may be setting up with possible heavy rains coming behind weak low pressure coming out of the ITCZ.
Weak Areas of Low Pressure Known to Produce Copious Amounts of Rain.
Current look at the basin. Storm Gulf of Alaska….. Storm Moving into the Bearing Sea with Typhoon LAN headed towards Japan. LAN currently a Category 1 forecast to reach Category 4 Super Typhoon Status next 36hrs under a RAPID intensification phase. Speaking of RAPID intensification over on the Atlantic side. 2 Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. More on that below. 
From there weakening is forecast for LAN to Category 2 as it makes contact with Japan passing near Tokyo next 72 to 96HRS.

From there LAN looks to morph into an intense area of Low Pressure over the Aleutians next 5-7 days. GFS showing 951 Hurricane Force Low at 150HRS….
And dropping to 936MB just inside 7 Days.
Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast showing the 2 Swells in the water. One from Storm Gulf of Alaska and the other from the storm getting ready to enter the Bearing Sea currently located NE of Japan. Seas with this system forecast excess 35 Feet next 48 in WNW Swell developing. Both swells with 20 plus second front runners. Now add LAN morphing into Hurricane Force Low in 5 days.
Stay tuned for updates.

BUT WAIT…..There’s more.
The North Atlantic is also on fire with two Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. If you add OPHELIA to the mix, this will make 3 Hurricane Force Lows inside of 10 days for the basin, 2 of which will have had direct affect on Ireland, Ophelia and new incoming Hurricane Force Low.
Hers’s his mornings Look. Area East of Newfoundland on its way to Ireland. And the GALE developing East of OBX and the Large Scale Low moving across Canada, will morph into the 2nd Hurricane Force Low South of the Tip of Greenland.

Latest NOAA 24HR Forecast. Seas increasing to excess 40 FEET next 48.
Image in meters. This followed by….
Sub 950MB 00Z GFS just inside of 96HRS. This is seas likely in excess of 40 Feet as well. If you saw our last update we talked about how at times both basins, NPAC and NATLC, can mirror each other. Think about what you just read. Thats 3 Storms for NATLC and 3 Storms for NPAC.
Mirror Mirror on Da Wall…….

Heres the latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast.

BUT WAIT……..Theres more.
We are still in Tropical Cyclone Season for the Atlantic. In our previous post we discussed possibly seeing PHILIPPE coming out of the Western Carib around the 24th of October. It now appears the front wont get deep enough and pulls up short developing an area of Low Pressure at the tail end along the Gulf Coast and spin up towards the NNE. Image is for Wednesday October 25th.
Then followed by a secondary Low 48hrs later. Image below is for Friday October 27th.
Long time followers know to “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.” The exact details will start to get worked out over the next 72HRSor so. October 25th is 6 days away and the 27th is 8 days away. Both systems are likely to put a STRONG Southerly Suckup in the water and ALL MARINERS with travel plans along the East U.S. Coast next week she recheck their travel plans.   
Regardless of any tropical development coming out of the Western Caribbean there is a strong likely hood just like we saw 3 weeks ago a very wet and dangerous period setting up for Central Amerika with Flash Floods and Life Threatening Mudslides.

Stay tuned will likely cut a video soon maybe after the 12Z Runs later today.
Will add it to the top of this post.
Stay tuned to our Social Feeds for the announcement or check back later today.
Thanks for Following.


The 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season looks to be coming to a close. There may be a couple of more shots before the end of October. The season runs officially until November 30th however after the 3rd and 4th week of October chances begin to decline significantly on systems in November with potential land impacts. It should be noted that all though the season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th we can and have had a tropical cyclones develop in every month of the calendar year.  
We now have 92L INVEST.  
National Hurricane Center giving a 30% Chance of Development next 5 Days. It does not appear at this time that 92L will actually develop let alone affect the U.S. The only ones in the way is Bermuda and this appears to be an non issue at the moment.
As the season comes to a close this is the time of year when we start to lose followers from the non surf and marine community. These are people who are only interested in when the next storm is going to develop. If you are one of those people we hope to see you next year.

Surfers hang in there. Looks like we are in a repetitive pattern with constant on shore flow and these areas of Low Pressure lifting North of PR. With the Tropical Cyclone Season coming to a close we can revert back to giving more time and attention to the surf forecast.
12Z GFS 1 RUN Image is for next Friday leading into Wavemasters Saturday and Sunday October 21st and 22nd Jacksonville Beach Pier. Saturday and Sunday don’t look much better at the moment. Hopefully some things will change.
Latest Video Update

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Weak Area of Low Pressure N of PR Lil Sneaker Swell ? Tropical Storm OPHELIA

Sorry for the non updates as of late. We had strictly regulated ourselves to our Social Media feeds on what became Hurricane NATE. We now have Tropical Storm OPHELIA out about a 1000 miles SW of the AZORES and It appears the Northern Hemi Cap is about to fire as the Pacific Jet begins to crank up this week as a key indicator Atlantic switching to Winter Swell Season with what appears to be back to back Hurricane Force Lows setting up in the North Atlantic.

For those unaware we are primarily a Marine and Surf Forecast entity covering the North Atlantic and sometimes the North Pacific during Winter Swell Season. However we like to tell people you don’t have to be a mariner or a surfer to follow our forecast because during Hurricane Season we are a Tropical Weather Expert in pattern recognition.

To give you an idea for those who don’t follow us on Twitter (Its where we post all of our thoughts 1st not all info is shared to our other platforms) we posted this on September 28th 2017. It was the afternoon run of the 12Z GFS for October 7th and beside it was Hurricane Mathew of 2016.
The caption “Sometimes Like in History WX (Weather) can repeat itself.”
Some may have mistaken what we were trying to point out and assumed we were saying another Hurricane off the East Florida Coast when the GFS was showing South Florida.

Here’s what we meant. October 7th 2016 Hurricane Mathew
October 7th 2017 Hurricane NATE
Ironically there was a point that the GFS was showing this early on for October 7th
Ok so where are we now.
First start you off in the North Atlantic where the remnants or DNA of Ex-NATE will get absorbed into a North Atlantic Low causing Rapid Intensification of a North Atlantic Hurricane Force Low next 48HRS.
Seas increasing 35-40 Feet in WSW Swell 15-18 seconds developing. This would be the 2nd Hurricane Force Low of the season for the NATLC with another one likely in about 7 days. Again a key indication Winter Swell Season is underway.
Next we are watching for a weak area of Low Pressure moving up North of PR towards the Florida Coast next 4-5 days as a little sneaker swell.
Latest out of the Ocean Prediction Center 96HR swell forecast showing some 8-10 second periods headed for the Florida Coast with seas increasing 10-12 Feet in ESE Swell.
The hope is OPHELIA creates a little background for the Low forecast for North of PR for maybe a little added bonus. Weight and Sea.

From there we are monitoring what looks to be the last of the Mahicans (Tropical Waves0 coming off Afrika and the same Pattern that gave us NATE could give us PHILLIPE coming out of the Western Caribbean around the 24th. Why is the 24th important. Hurricane WILMA October 24th 2005. Up until recently the last MAJOR Hurricane to make landfall in Florida.  
12Z GFS is loading as of report time. This is 06Z GFS for Day 9. Thats 9  Days from today and is 1 RUN of many more to come. Whats the Rule of Thumb ? ” Weak areas of Low Pressure Known to Produce Copious Amounts of Rain”
Then later in the run, as in A LOT LATER, so take this with a grain of salt for October 25th but also keeping in mind what was said up thread,  “Sometimes Like in History WX (Weather) can repeat itself.” and what we showed you with the last of the Mahicans.
Stay tuned we will let the 12Z RUN maybe EURO (330PM Complete) and will likely add a video update to this post. For now stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.

Quick Update Sept 27th 2017 POSSIBLE NATE

Quick Video Update Stay Tuned
We are currently still conducting in the field forecast verification of Maria Swell

Latest Look at the Tropics 9-25-2017

Here’s the latest look at the tropics. We are 5 days away from closing out the month of September.
October is the month where we go back into a pattern where Homegrown development can occur. What do we mean by Homegrown Development. This is tropical development that can occur in your backyard meaning they do not give you a lot of preparation time. Although we can still get development coming out of the Atlantic in October typical origins of development come out of the Western Caribbean. So think of something developing in the Central Gulf and within 3-5 days making landfall. This type of scenario does not give you alot of prep time.
Latest run of the GFS takes this energy out of the Gulf of Honduras up through the YUKE Channel over Florida.
Where it develops it into a weak area of Low Pressure East of the Florida Coast. No Storm at this point maybe a Tropical Depression but this is only one model run and we haven’t seen this afternoons run of the EURO. As a reminder weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. The GFS from here moves it back across South Florida before washing it out in the GOMEX. Again 1 Run.
Latest Video Update Staye Tuned and follow on our Social Feeds for Real-Time Update.

Latest On Maria 9-23-2017

Heres the Latest on Maria. One thing for certain we will be talking about her for at least 5 more days. The chances of some direct impacts of Maria are increasing for the OBX and Mid-Atlc especially coastal residents as large seas and large surf to become the rule. Heres the latest forecast track out of the National Hurricane Center. Models have been shifting ever so slightly towards the West. Several variables are in play. Keep in mind the margin of error of the 5 day cone at the 5 day mark is 211 Nautical Miles.
This was this mornings look.
It appears Maria is ingesting yesterdays trough East of Florida. This may help to broaden the wind field of NE fetch developing and COULD be partially responsible for why the models are shifting towards the West a bit 
Current Max Seas are now at 45 FEET forecast to remain in the 40 foot range next 24-48HRS.

Here’s our latest video update. We will likely to another video update tomorrow. Stay tuned to our social feeds for updates.

Latest on JOSE and MARIA Chances of OPHELIA ?

I am pushed for time trying to make a living. Go with this video update for now. Will be stepping up forecast updates next coming days. Maria has made landfall in Puerto Rico this morning. The effect of Land Interasction will be know in the next 24hrs. Although to soon to confirm it appears Maria has mad a left Jog or turn after making landfall.
Our latest forecast points for Maria. Notice how it appears a round circle appears at the forecast points. These are clues as to where storms are headed.
Now look a the the current official forecast track and compare it to the image above.
Heres todays video update. Follow us on ours social feeds for Real-Time Updates. Always check time and date stamps to ensure you are looking at the latest when viewing images on social media.

Latest on JOSE and 96L INVEST 9-15-17

Go with the video posted below for now. As of 3:30 JOSE is approaching hurricane status once again. Jose forecast to get in the nook between the OBX and Nantucket. PLEASE visit the National Hurricane Center at for all OFFICIAL Watches and Warnings. If Watches and Warnings are issued for your region please heed the advice of the National Hurricane Center, your state local and county emergency officials.

We are also keeping an eye on what is likely to become either LEE or Maria. 96L INVEST coming out of the main development region next 5 days. National Hurricane Center 2PM up date 90% Chance next 5 days.
The 12Z EURO hadn’t finished loading at the time we put this post together. This is Day 9. Thats JOSE ENE of OBX and either LEE or Maria coming up North of Bahamas.
Needless to say we are in an active pattern next 10 days with both models clicking on increase in Tropical Activity. We are not concerned with what is 97L INVEST. 97 likely a Fish Storm.
Heres the rainbow of JOSE.

That of what is 96L. Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued and or Hurricane for theEastern Caribbean tomorrow Sept 16th.

Heres our latest video update.

UPDATE LATEST on JOSE September 14th 2017 96L 97L INVEST

I apologize about video quality and I am scatter brained this morning.
Please Excuse any errors

Morning everyone prayers to all dealing in the wake of IRMA. For my peeps in the 904 I dedicated this song from Little River Band for the River City yesterday on our Social Feeds.
HANG ON……Help is on its Way….
I’ll Be there as Fast as I Can……
Dont Forget Who Takes Care of You……
I’m sorry to say, I wont have all the time I’d like to track JOSE. I am now involved in the cleanup process of Hurricane IRMA and have a ton of work ahead of me as I have to make a living. I get paid zero $$$ for my efforts to keep an EYE open for EVERYONE in what I do with my unique forecast abilities. But thats ok, EYE don’t do it for the money, EYE do it for the love of what EYE do.

When the final story is written on JOSE and what the final chapter will be, it will likely be the story of JOSE torn between two lovers, GAIL and IRMA. Sing it…. and yes I know GAIL is GALE.
Right now I’m listening to Little River Bands LADY. For those that have not been following me for a while, as I discussed in one of my recent forecast videos, I try to link songs to what I see in the imagery as a cryptic message and to QUOTE, Its up to you to connect the dots UNQUOTE.
The other thing we mentioned  back when IRMA was coming up past PR, was to STOP staring at her EYE.  There’s a reason why the eye of a hurricane stares at you. To keep you from looking at the pattern all around her.

I Look around…come to me…. I have no answers but know where I wanna be….
I look around….. to see what plays a part…..
I was born in the winter but cooled by a warm heart…..
NOW LADY (IRMA) let me take a look at you now you’re there on the dance floor making me want you some how (JOSE)

Its who does JOSE love best and IRMA was not like the rest. She went against conventional wisdom(also mentioned in our video) and advertised on our Social Feeds that JOSE would likely follow suit wit da Loopty Lupe.

Latest 72HR Surface Forecast out of the National Hurricane Center X Marks the spot.
We’ll go dancing in the dark (Lots of ppl without electricity) walking through the park and reminiscing.

I’m praying its not Central Park.
00Z EURO +240
Or the Hatteras National Sea Shore.
00Z GFS +150
Thats all I got…Got to go to work. I broke out my second phone to help me do updates when I get breaks today. I Will do my best to keep up on our social feeds with updates throughout the day. Twitter @DaDaBuh… Insta @DaBuh…FB DaBuh Surf.
Which reminds me. For those who are unaware. We are a Marine/Surf forecast entity. So even if JOSE is no threat to you land lubbers, does not mean he’s not a threat to those on DA WATTA.

ALSO…NO ONE….INCLUDING ME…. can tell you where JOSE is going to end up…NO one.
With that said Florida is still in play. Dont believe me ? Go back up and look at the 72HR surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. Theres a reason why the UKMET showed what it showed.

Speaking of reasons. And plz dont’t take this as bragging but simply think to yourself what could the reason. I ask myself this everyday to see if they unfollow. How is it in a world of PHD’s and Degrees does this happen to someone who has no formal training in meteorology that barely graduated High School. Girlfriends,,,,,Its DaBuh’s things that make you go hmmmm……

SURFERS….. its all right there in the Tropical Atlantic Forecast Branch tweet on the deck this morning. For those entered in Salt Life Food Shacks Florida Big Wave Challenge. Jeff Crego and Tristan Thompson think they got it won. Heres your chance to prove them wrong in the up coming forecast period. PS my vote counts this year as I am an Official Judge of this years contest.
Thank you Greg Saig.
Stay tuned. Will try and get a forecast video up tonight. Will post it here top of the thread.
For those who only subscribe to our YouTube Channel your probably not reading this right now.
So sorry for you.

Lastly, I believe in signs as a decedent of an Ancient Rainbow Warrior.
Neba Tink, Sum-Ting Knot Possible, Wheat-Out Furst Luke-King at Da Posse Billy-T
Da-BooDa (its where DaBuh came from)

I’ll translate..
Never think some thing is not possible without first looking at the possibility.

Unfortunately there is alot of knocking on doors right now who did not heed the warnings of the National Hurricane Center and your state local county emergency officials. #Irmarecovery.
Hats off to all First Responders.

I’m in a league all my own.