1st 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone ALETTA……. BUD? BERYL?

The 1st Tropical Storm of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone has formed Tropical Storm ALETTA. We are now at 50% of verification of our 1st call with our “Pinned Tweet” now going into our 8th day. The clock is running. If you saw our last website update a week ago we are now into that Real-Time Phase for the shot at BERYL. If you front me 3 days for a total of 13 I’m still inside the window of the call with 5 days to go. In the pinned tweet “Main Energy to EPAC”. There is now a 60% chance of development of Tropical Storm Bud next 5 days which looks to be on lock and the EPAC is highly likely to see the seasons first Two Hurricanes. Did not see BUD in the line up but in a sense it is still the B storm accounting for 2 storms of our pinned tweet. Question yet to be answered is BERYL.

The chance for BERYL will come on the heels of what should be Hurricane Bud in about 5 days from the last of 3 Tropical Waves that moved off West Afrika and have been traversing the Atlantic off towards the West the last week. They have traveled as a package and the last one is about to split off from the pack next 72hrs. Latest 72hr surface forecast National Hurricane Center.

At this point all you need to really understand is this pattern. This is  what we will be watching for in Real-Time over the coming days.

The GFS is still on it. Last nights run just inside of 5 days showing deep tropical moisture developing in the SW Caribbean.

Here’s this morning Rainbow and a look at the Wave itself. Again “Pretty Simple” what you see on the right is moving to the left. The wave will eventually run out of property and come to a dead end in the Western Caribbean in about 5 days. (See above NHC 72HR and add 2 Day Travel Time)

The EURO still is not picking up on development. There has been some hints last several runs showing strong Easterly Trades developing but no actual spin up. Part of the problem why the EURO may not be picking up on it is because the wave has been traveling under a blanket of SAL (Saharan Air Layer) and may be hiding from the EURO. Long time followers have heard us say that these waves can sometimes travel undetected because they sometimes travel with dust masks and you have to wait until the pop on the Westside of the 50 Long Line where they can remove the mask once in a better environment away from SAL. Currently SAL is thick on the West side of the 50 and then the next hurdle comes in and that is the passing of the Eastern Carib where trade winds can disrupt surface circulation.

Thats all we got for you for now. NEWLY formed Tropical Storm ALETTA forecast as the 1st Hurricane of the 2018 Season. Stay Tuned for the updates please share our post.

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Continues ALETTA/EPAC BERYL/WSTRN CARIB ?

Morning everyone, POSSIBLE Surf Alert Continues. As mentioned in our previous update the exact details are still trying to get figured out. As for now we will call it a Mid-Atlantic Event. Not sure how much or if any makes it down into East Florida. 1st things first.

We now have verification of late Season Storm SE of Newfoundland. This system has put a possitive charge of Northerly Swell in the water. Seas have now maxed out at around 25 Feet in NNE Swell.

Latest 48HR Swell Forecast 12-13 Second NNE SWELL propagating through SW Atlantic Waters.

Question for Island Surfers now focused on size. We are under a DaBuh-WEE Watch. Paul West Bermuda the one to watch. Buoy Obs 101. First thing we are looking for is swell directional change. Then Period and Size sometimes in reverse. Looking at the data below, We see single pings of East and North. 1st signs of swell directional change. The buoy only has 2 feet of Swell Height out of the SW. Over the next 24hrs we will be watching for MAX Swell height. Buoy needs to have at least 10 foot on it to provide a decent bump for the islands. Weight and Sea.

Next Up will be this front. Rule of Thumb, “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop”. This COULD be setting up as a classic example.

Latest Run of the EURO for Tuesday June 5th. If this were to verify would definately put a shot of NE Swell in the water headed for East Florida with light to offshore winds. It’s a PRAYER at the moment as the GFS has other ideas.

From there we could be watching for another repeat performance with a Tropical System coming out of the Western. Models are hinting and the pattern setting up favors it. This is last nights run of the EURO. If the model were to verify that’s Tropical Storm ALETTA in the Eastern Pacific. Would be their 1st named system of the season. Then the pattern suggest BERYL coming from another “Round the Corner Pattern ”

This is this mornings imagery. Thats a Tropical Wave moving through the Eastern Caribbean.
Although Tropical Cyclone Development is not anticipated with this incoming wave the process remains the same. Next time just add deep convection and it could be on.
Not every Tropical Wave induces Tropical Cyclone Development. In fact most waves pass through harmlessly other that increasing the chance of deep tropical rains. This process will repeat itself multiple times throughout the season.

24HR Surface Forecast out of the National Hurricane Center.

Latest run of the GFS. In the video we said we were showing you the 06Z. It might have been 00Z.
Below breaks our rule of posting outside the 240hr Mark. This image is +276, This is a little over 10 days from now. ALETTA EPAC the beginnings of BERYL WSTRN CARIB.

Now we may have been over confident in this but we did it anyways. We pinned this Tweet 13HRS Ago. Either we know what we are talking about or we will just be lucky if all of the above verifies.

Latest Video Update…..Stay Tuned

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Coming !!!!

Morning Everyone, ALBERTO is in the books, at least as far as landfall is concerned. We will still be tracking his remnants to see what role his ghost may play in the upcoming forecast period.
If you saw our last video update, posted on May 24th ( Latest on 90L INVEST ) we mentioned around the 411 Mark “Ok folks Heres where it gets REALLY interesting”. Well, here it is.

The Elephant March is On. Late season storm developing. This is yesterdays HI-RES. If you watched our first video of the season a week ago today May 20th “Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season” , we talked about how the ULL that crashed into the Bahamas on May 4th was the trigger mechanism that kicked off a, “Chain Event that has lead us to where we are today”.

We are now in another “Chain Event”. Looking at the imagery below take note of the Tele-Connection from the North Atlantic Storm near the Tip of Greenland. This has put a long period swell in the water heading towards the East Atlantic. Drop back from there towards Nova Scotia. That’s a *NEW North Atlantic Storm Developing that you have recently seen posted in our social feeds last 24-48 Hours. This will put a secondary charge of Northerly Swell in the water.

Drop back from there. Alberto making landfall on the Florida Pan Handle. Drop down from there and it’s ALBERTO’S Trough stretching into the ITCZ through the Western Carib for that “Repetitive Pattern” we spoke of. That’s that South to North orientation set up over the Western Carib we continue to be under. What is now Sub-Tropical Depression ALBERTO will continue to draw up tropical moisture into the U.S. because of this.

We have a SOLO Tropical Wave coming out of the MDR into the Eastern Caribbean next 72HRS. We will be monitoring this wave for another possible “Round the Corner” in the upcoming forecast period just like we saw with ALBERTO.

Yesterday we posted this to our Social Feeds just about 24hrs ago. The images are ALBERTO Making land fall in the Florida Pan Handle. A secondary swirl off the NE Florida Coast with the trunk of the elephant (ALBERTOS Trough) down into the Western Caribbean sucking up and taking in water for his march. The bottom right is the EURO at 10 days. (Possible BERYL)

Here is this mornings swell forecast out of NOAA’S OPC for the next 24HRS. You can see the swell generated by the Late Season Storm by the Tip of Greenland mention above in the HI-RES heading for East Atlantic.

Heres is this mornings first visible.
*NEW Storm Developing SE of Nova Scotia South of New Foundland. Look at the OBX. Minority Report Pre-Crime Division. No doubt the Pre-Cogs have seen this.

Here is the 96HR Swell forecast. Seas are forecast to increase excess 25 Feet in N/NE swell developing 12-13 second plus for late season swell heading for the Islands. We will go into a Buoy Watch in about 48HRS.

Then here comes the iffy part. Folks please keep in mind we saw this setting up a week ago.
The EXACT details are yet to be worked out. Latest discussion out of the OPC.
Beginning Saturday ?
“Could Potentially Produce a Long Duration STRONG Onshore Wind Event”

That’s all I have for you for now. Will likely cut a Youtube video update on this so stay tuned.
Going back to ALBERTO. A good forecaster ALWAYS goes back to see what was previously forecast for forecast verification. Back on May 15th and 16th we posted this to our Twitter Feed. We were detailing the pattern in a cryptic way on where we thought ALBERTO was going. It’s why some people just don’t get us, they have issues connecting the dots.

“This ULL (Upper Level Low) Screams 2 Things , Alabama Roll Tide and from a Surfers Perspective A Frames coming to the Gulf of Mexico.”
“A” for ALBERTO

Then when we began to hone in on track we pinned this Tweet. The Top Arrow is at the Florida Alabama Line. Did ALBERTO lift straight up ? NO, he didn’t. He shifted towards the East before rounding back to the Florida Pan Handle.

Based off our initial call May 23rd keeping in mind that forecasts are subject to change. Our margin of error was around 100 miles in 5 days based on recorded landfall location.
It’s Why We Watch—-> You Follow—->DaBuh.

This Mornings Visible. ALBERTO centered over Alabama.

We might not get it all right but I think we did pretty good on our first call of the 2018 Season.
Stay Tuned.

Please….if you follow us on our social feeds please let us know what you think by leaving us a Facebook Review on our Facebook Page. Follow us on Twitter for ALL of our post. We don’t always share everything over to Insta or FB as to not blow up those feeds. Once on Twitter, if we are hitting on an area of interest to you, you can set your notifications to on and you will know when we post in Real-Time. Not of interest turn the notifications to off.

Thanks Again Everybody. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta….. Wurd of DaBuh

First INVEST of the 2018 Season 90L INVEST 50% Chance Next 5 Days

Good Evening, here is the first update on this system now designated 90L Invest located in the NW Caribbean near and over the Tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. As of around 8PM this evening the National Hurricane Center increased the odds of development to 50% Chance of a Tropical Cyclone Developing (TD) that could eventually lead into Tropical Storm Alberto the first name system of the season.

With that said heres is our 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclon Season Disclaimer

DO NOT TAKE ANY INFORMATION FROM OUR WEBSITE OUR IN OUR FORECAST VIDEOS AS GOSPEL NOTHING IN WEATHER ABSOLUTE UNTIL IT HAPPENS IN REAL-TIME.
THIS FORECASTER HAS KNOWN TO HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
AND AS ALWAYS FORECAST SUBJECT TO CHANGE DAILY.

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.Hurricane.gov for ALL OFFICIAL Watches and Warnings. If Watches and or Warnings are Issued for your area please heed the advice of ALL local county state emergency management officials.

Start you off with todays HI-RES. This may be a bit much for some.
The EURO model has consistently shown a trend over the last several runs to go up and to the left. We can now see that in the imagery. If you watched our video we talked about Climo says Up or Up and to the Right but we talked about how sometimes storms will go against convention wisdom.
We now have support for this “Up and to the Left” from official forecast maps out of the OPC and NHC. The GFS continues to trail off to the right with a small vorticity spin that explodes as it heads towards Florida and we can now see that also as a possibility. It is possible to see Main Vort spin move into the Gulf AND the little explosive vort the GFS shows wrap around the corner of Wstrn Cuba in towards the Keys or SW Florida.

Let me tell you what you are looking at. Remember although the image is still the atmosphere is fluid. You have to put what you see into motion in your mind. If you don’t understand general flow you won’t get below.  Late Season North Atlantic Storm Developing. Area of Low Pressure dropping into the Atlantic from Great Lakes Region and off the Mid-Atlantic up towards the Tip of Greenland.

The remnants of the first Tropical Wave of the Season. We talked about this in our video as a possible kicker. This could be the kicker GFS is trying to identify. We will have to see whats left at first visible light tomorrow. 90L Invest on Da Yuke.

This is a Super-Zoom of the ESTRN Side of the Tip of the Yuke/Gulfo de Hondura. This went from this to this to this——-> (Next Image)

In a about 5-6Hrs. This is the MAIN Vort Spin SLOWLY Developing.

The National Hurricane Center recently analyzed a 1OO9MB LOW just prior to image above.

The CURRENT official 96HR surface forecast call out of NOAA’S OPC is for the Low to move up into the Central Gulf and then onshore over Louisiana. The directional arrow is towards the left.

Heres this afternoons run of the EURO. You can see it appears NOAA is closely following the EURO model solution for 90L INVEST. As mentioned above and seen in the HI-RES imagery above there is Medium to Strong support that “UP or Up And to the Left” will verify. THE EXACT details are unclear at the moment going into day 5. It is possible this system could stall meander hang around for a few days dumping copious amounts of rain in its wake.

Florida Pan Handle Surfers no change in the wind forecast as of now. As detailed in our video discussion. PROLONGED period onshore winds coming in deep from Carib and Bay of C.
SSW to SSE Flow East-side of the circle. (OH)

We will leave 90L alone overnight to see what it looks like in the morning. Stay tuned in for that.
We will likely cut a video tomorrow morning after we get a few frames of visible stellite imagery and a chance to digest the overnight model runs.

Looking down wind this is the EURO just inside 10 days from now. Last couple of runs the EURO has been dropping hints at another “Round the Corner” type system coming. Incidentally the Low centered over Northern Alabama would be Ex-Alberto/90L INVEST. This image is for June 1st, OFFICIAL start of the 2018 season.

Image below from earlier this morning and is the 2nd Tropical Wave of the season. Look back up at the EURO above. Look at this image. Back up again. You should be able to put 2 and 2 together.
There some other interesting features behind this that we will be watching crossing AFRIKA next several days as well.

Thats it for now, follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates.
Thanks for following.

Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Welcome *New followers to our social feeds and Welcome Back long time followers who only follow us during hurricane season. Nice to see some old names handles and accounts popping back up.

Ok although the OFFICIAL start to the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season doesn’t start until June 1st (May 15th Eastern Pacific) Tropical Cyclones can and have developed in every calendar month of the year since record keeping began. One of our last post on DaBuh.com was a little over a month ago. We always like to go back and look at the last forecast update to see what ended up verifying.
Back on April 11th we posted “Switch to Tropical Season”. If you didn’t get a chance to read it check it out and drop down to where we start discussing the tropics.

Since then the switch is on. We have had 2 areas of disturbed weather monitored by the National Hurricane Center. One on May 4th in the Bahamas and another one on May 14th in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Neither system developed into a Tropical Cyclone but did aid it setting up some fun surf for select location. Now we are about to begin t monitor the 3rd area of disturbed weather in the upcoming forecast period. Additionally the National Hurricane Center has analyzed the 1st 2 Tropical Waves of the 2018 season in the last 48-72hrs out in the MDR, Main Development Region or Central Atlantic between Afrika and the Eastern Caribbean. No doubt the season is underway.
Early Seasonal Tropical Development- If you go back to the 2007 season. There have been 6 Tropical Storms Develop in the month of May. That’s 6 Storms 10 Years. The 2018 Season is just getting underway. Thats an average of 1 every other year. 2012 saw 2 in May coincidentally the same name list as used for this season. 2012 saw Alberto on May 19th and Beryl on May 26th. Additionally since record keeping began there have been 4 Hurricanes Develop in the month of May.
Here is a list All Early Season Tropical Cyclones since record keeping began.

Here is what we will be watching for over the next 3-4 days. Although the National Hurricane Center dropped the designation of the First Tropical Wave of the Season the entity is still there. Thats it East of the Eastern Caribbean Islands. It continues to move off towards the West. It is the vorticity spin along it’s axis that will likely kick the spin off that will be over the Gulf of Honduras. From there you can all see it setting up in the imagery how the latest 4 runs of the EURO have it.

The EURO takes the Low into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. The Low is trying to chase the tail end of the front. The Rule of Thumb is always watch the Tail Ends of Fronts, Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop. Sometimes Lows like to try and attach themselves to the tail end or ride the front.
Image for Thursday.

Then Friday going into Memorial Day Weekend

Then on Saturday as a Closed Low Possible Tropical Depression. Just off the coast of Louisiana.

From there, at least in this run mind you, (the EURO has had pretty much the same solution last 4 runs in a row ) the low does not move much from there. Here it is going into Day 10. Thats 5 days in a row of very limited movemnet (said 6 in our latest video)
The reason for that is, EURO back doors High Pressure and Blocks it. The Low is now surrounded by High Pressure. This system could sit and meander. Would lead to devastating flooding rains.

It is important to remember that Name or No Name weak areas of Low Pressure are known to produce copious amounts of rain. Especially ones that just sit and spin. A slow moving Tropical Depression/Storm can create as much havoc and or financial loss as a fast moving hurricane.

GOMEX Surfers looks like a shot at Surf Alert. Right now it looks like multiple days in a row of strong to moderate onshore flow. SSW to SSE winds coming up off the Yuke.

Latest Video Update- We will likely be stepping up website and video updates for the upcoming forecast period so stay tuned in for the updates and thanks for following.

POSSIBLE Fun Surf Alert Setting Up Mid-ATLC

Morning Everyone. We are now inside 96hrs for this next Real-Time Event. Models have been consistently showing a surface low developing dropping into SE States around Sunday. Timing and track is still suspect at the moment. The big difference in what models where showing several days ago is, models now want to keep this system close to the coast as what we call a Coastal Runner. Models previously headed this system moving further off the coast and towards the NE.
The difference? Instead of NE Fetch and off the coast now it will be ESE fetch aimed at the coast. The fetch line starts around the lat 30 Line and will quickly move up the coast.This is this mornings Water Vapor imagery. Although the image is still movement is from left to right. The Low is forecast to DVLP near or around Louisiana and you can now see it lining up in the imagery.

This image is for Sunday. In our last update we mentioned the beginning of the switch to Tropical Season. Here it is, “Rule of thumb” Always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for area of Low Pressure to develop. Weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. Given the right time of year and the correct atmospheric conditions this process can and has lead to the development of Tropical Cyclones. In this image you can see where the model wants to take this system. Sweeps it to the right to near or just off the SE Coast then up into the Mid-ATLC. At this time there are still uncertainties in exact track and intensity. 
This is the GFS Sunday going into Monday.

Small Craft Advisory Flags about to Fly. Latest Marine forecast South of the 31 line. Seas will quickly build 10-15 Feet and AT THE MOMENT looks like seas maxing out around the 20 foot mark as this system moves up into the Mid-ATLC region going into Tuesday.
As mentioned above LOTS of uncertainty in intensity and forecast track. As for now the GFS is an Outlier so take this image as a grain of salt but factor in a what if for Tuesday.
The FUN Surf Alert looks to come on Thursday as winds go offshore South of the OBX and work their way up coast. EURO for Thursday.

Thats it for now. We will be monitoring for the tweaks in the forecast next several days so stay tuned in for updates.

Little recap on our last forecast update posted 8 days ago. ” MASSIVE NATLC Storm”
Alot of folks think that when we use words like “MASSIVE” we are hyping.

Heres what verified. A 942MB BOMB

NOAA OPC Analyzed
942MB Hurricane Force Low.
This image earlier in time than the image above.

In reference to Climotology.
5 in the past 50 Years.
On average Happens 1 in about every 10 years

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MASSIVE NATLC Storm Coming and The Switch to Tropical Season

Morning everyone, lots to cover in this update. Hope you will read through all of it. A MASSIVE North Atlantic Storm/Hurricane Force Low is likely to develop in about 5 days. There still is some uncertainty on exact fetch at the moment. Unfortunately for U.S. Surfers this system will likely not produce anything for the U.S. East Coast. Periods might be there, size will not. The main Energy Source/DNA moved off the OBX yesterday and is on its way towards the North Atlantic. In the tropics, we are now approaching the 30 day mark for the “Official Start” of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. The Eastern Pacific Tropical Season Officially begins May 15th.

Alright start you off with a couple of post from our social feeds to set the tone.
Back on March 28th we talked about an OBX Low Coming in about 10 plus days.
We are now in that Real-Time Phase.

Yesterdays HI-RES. Let me tell you what your looking at. The 1st OBX Low moved off 3 days ago.
This system moved off towards the NNE and developed into a Hurricane Force Low South of the tip of Greenland. The second is the one indicated by the read arrow SE of the OBX in the image below. There’s a reason why it appears like there is a hole in the clouds. This is the exact spot were NOAA analyzed the area of Low Pressure yesterday. The second arrow leading off towards the NE is where its forecast to go. Notice how it also has the appearance of a hole in the clouds. “Minority Report Pre-Crime Division” for those who know what we are talking about.

Latest NOAA Surface Analysis. If you look at the “07” and the “X” above it, compare it to yesterdays HI-RES you should be able to connect the dots. Remember this if you plan on following our forecast updates for Hurricane Season. Imagery can dictate where a system is headed and is a vital part of pattern recognition.

This system is the one that lead us to post this back on April 4th a week ago today. Pretty sure there was some Fun Surf Central Florida down towards South Central Florida last 2 days. More importantly with Mark Zuckerberg in the news look at how many this post reached in 7 days and was liked by 5 people.

Folks if you follow us on FakeBook let us know you are there by liking and sharing our post. Leave us a review under the review section. We have NO SPONSORS and make $0.00 for what we do. A Like, a Share, a Comment or a Review cost you nothing. Let us know you are there. No one likes the feeling they are wasting their time. Invite your friends to like our page or follow us on or other feeds.
FYI Twitter is where we post it all first.

So this system that moved off the SE U.S. Coast yesterday is part DNA for this MASSIVE Storm thats about to develop. Here is the latest 96HR Surface Forecast out of NOAA’s OPC office.
From the above Hi-RES Image to this 988MB GALE SW of Ireland. But look at the Developing Gale coming off Newfoundland. NOAA only goes out 96HRS on their Official Forecast Maps.

Heres the latest run of the GFS. These 2 are going to combine into one LORD HUMUNGUS System.
The Ayatollah of Rockin Rolla. The area of Low pressure that moved off the SE U.S. East Coast yesterday now West of Ireland on Sunday with the next incoming system into the basin passing over or near NF……

We joked around with Carve Magazine and James Van Fleet yesterday on Twitter. “ET Phone Home” and “Mind the Gap” ET because this system will be photogenic from Outer Space and “Mind the Gap” between the CURRENT Swell form the current Hurricane Force Low off the South tip of Greenland and the gap time from this NEW one developing. I promise you there is a method to our madness.


Image is for Monday. Two areas of Low pressure combining into a MASSIVE Storm System.

As mentioned above still some uncertainty on exact fetch. There also currently are some differences between the GFS and EURO on Max Seas. For now calling it 35-40 Feet in WSW Swell Developing. This system will also produce a long period NNW Swell component down into West Afrika.

Stay tuned for Real-Time Updates on our Social Feeds. We may do a Youtube Video Forecast Update on this as well so Stay Tuned.

As mentioned above we are approaching the 30 Day Mark for the Official Start of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. Season starts May 15th for the EPAC and June 1st for the Atlantic.
34 and 51 Days respectively. Yesterday we saw the first signs of the impending season to come with some convective flare up in the ITCZ near Central Amerika.

On the Atlantic Side Early Seasonal Forecast have been issued calling for a slightly above average season. We personally do not put stock into early seasonal forecast with the thought in mind its simply pure speculation. With that said here it is out of Colorado State University.

The season is always the same in reference to where it starts. Heres Climo on Tropical Cyclone Origin Points for the period May 11th-20th. Some of you may be wondering if the season doesn’t start til June 1st why is he showing me May. That is since record keeping began Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin can and have formed in every month of the calendar year. May/June is the time of year it typically starts.

Here are the typical June Tracks.

Thats it for now. For U.S. East Coast Surfers and West Florida Surfers Strong Southerly Suckup Coming with what could be a STRONG Vigorous front for West Florida. Image is for Monday April 16th. This is also the reason why that BIG Massive Storm in the North Atlantic probably will not have an effect here state side. Southerly Flow into Northerly Swell can be a swell killer.
 But wait there’s more. Not a lot of confidence outside 10 days. Image is for 12 Days +288HRS.
Snow Cane ? Will be monitoring next several runs to see this inside 10 Days.
Major Swell Event Coming ?

Stay Tuned and Follow Us on our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates.
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POSSIBLE Major Swell Event Coming

Morning everyone, hate to sound like a broken record, but if you want to learn about swell production and have not read our February 8th post entitled “End of Winter Swell Season” you should. There are several factors that play into it. Size, Shape, Duration, and Location Location Location. Yes the NE is on like 4 Nor’Easters in a row but when we talk about “Winter Swell” or “Major Swell Event” we are talking about swell for the Majority of surf breaks. Since that post we had one Super Major Swell Event, Winter Storm Riley. It now appears in the satellite imagery there is another one the horizon. With this one coming, we will need to add another element, “Direction of Travel ” so here we go.

Latest out of NOAA OPC 72HR Surface forecast showing Low Pressure cutting its way across the Central U.S. next 72HRS or so.

This is this mornings IR setting it up. The energy for this Low currently over WSTRN U.S. with the NE current storm tucked in just South of Cape Cod.

Long Time followers….Minority Report Pre-Crime Division. No Doubt the Pre-Cogs have seen this. Same image as above but zoomed into where the crime is about to take place.
Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast. Take note of the 1046 MB High over Canada. This is likely going to be a Blocking Mech setting up. Notice the NE Winds from Newfoundland. This is going to get NE Wind Swell going as it pushes down into the LOW/GALE DVLPNG off the SE Coast.

If you follow us on our Social Media than you saw this post yesterday where we mention the word “STALL”. This mornings discussion out of the OPC……

NWS Ocean Prediction Center
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
A developing low will move off the SE coast Sat night, pass E over the southern nt2 waters Sun while strengthening, then become nearly stationary just E of the nt2 area Mon and Mon night while continuing to strengthen.

Now there still is some uncertainty with this system. The GFS is not playing along with the EURO and the details should become more clearer next 48HRS or so. For this exercise we are going with what the EURO suggest based on the satellite imagery posted above.
Here’s the EURO for WEDNESDAY 7AM.
Please remember when viewing the image below it is a snap shot of time.
All though the image is still the atmosphere is fluid.

Latest Swell Forecast. The Image below is for TUESDAY so 24HRS earlier than the above image. The EURO is now showing seas in EXCESS of 45 Feet in NE Swell DVLPNG. This is a slight increase than previous runs. If you go back to the OPC 96HR forecast above. Notice the WSW winds at Storm Force. This is one of the reasons why the CURRENT Storm off the NE Coast was a Localized Swell Event for MID-ATLC through NE Waters minus some REEF-RACK-TION Swell for SOFLO.

This means that the Low will move off the SE Coast Move NE and then Double Back or Retro. This will put another swell charge in the water if the EURO Verifies and this adds the other element, “Direction of Travel ” to the mix. AND we can not rule out a “STALL” at the moment.

Thats it for now. Stay tuned will likely do a video update soon. Follow us on our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates. Tell All U Frens, Mo Frens Mo Betta. Spread Da Wurd, Wurd of DaBuh

SHE’S GONE….. GONE…… GONE……. Bad Company

Morning Everyone,
Long time followers know that we like to associate lyrics with what we see in the forecast.
Todays Dabuh.com Update Brought to you by Bad Company.

What an amazing run of swell. Hope you scored cause….. She’s Gone Gone Gone……
I Don’t know if I’m Happy……. I Don’t Know if I’m Sad
She’s Gone Gone Gone……
I Don’t Know if I’ll Cry………. I Don’t Know if I’ll Die——> Laughin.

You better get the boys round and do some drinking fast. If you read our last forecast update 5 days ago here comes the period of small for all discussed in that post. Don’t forsake me cause I love you. Give me Silver Blue and Gold, My Rain…… Rainbow is overdue.

Recently we have discussed what makes a good forecaster. A good forecaster always goes back to look at what he/she previously forecast for forecast verification. Some of you are going to say I am putting these two on blast. I’m not, I’m just trying to show you what I have to deal with sometimes.
I appreciate all comments and take any questions. But if you don’t read what we post, or have bad reading comprehension, well ….. I can’t help you with that.

This was our lead image on our social feeds 5 Days ago. The funny part is, in our last You Got Tubed video forecast update we said, “This is the Time of Year We Get Accused of Hype”.
Again not picking on these two but please read. It does for your mind good.

Before we move on here’s a grab from that update. You can read the rest HERE
” So for now until we see something change in the pattern, the call for “Small for All” continues except for standout locations re Mid-Atlc Storm and POSSIBLY but not likely Refracto coming “.

Forecaster Note: Refracto Fired for Palm Bch County verified by Slavetothewave.com

And Mid-Atlc Top Spots scored from Storm.

So whats next ?
Here comes this next incoming system. Wurd On Da Skreet Image for Sunday.
NEW Low Pressure System Moving into the Mid-Atlc Region. Players are on the board.

00Z GFS is trending on split energies. Taking the Southern piece and out flanking the Northern one.
Image below is for Wednesday March 21st

The GFS then takes the Secondary Low and moves it Offshore Friday March 23rd.

Then going into Saturday tightening up. This is the next chance of swell. Again it won’t be for everybody. At least not at the moment looking at the latest forecast models.

Gonna stop here. This keeps the above in a 10 Day Window. There is lots of uncertainty past Sunday. The EURO is currently NOT ON BOARD with a swell producer. That could change though.
This one goes out to “Headline Readers”. Who all they saw when we posted this yesterday is,
DaBuh says it’s a “Major Swell Event Coming” 🙂 Then it doesn’t verify then I get accused of Hype 🙂
Its a vicious circle that sometimes can include Jerks, then it becomes a Circle Jerk LOL.
This was the EURO when it liked the idea. Today not so much.

Latest 96HR Swell Forecast. For those who’ve seen our reference to Newtons 3rd Law.
Now we wait for the return.

Stay Tuned to our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates.
For New Followers, we promote ideas to the upcoming forecast on our social feeds and when we have enough confidence we do a forecast update here on DaBuh.com.
Stay Tuned !!!!

SHE’S GONE….. GONE…… GONE……. Bad Company

Morning Everyone,
Long time followers know that we like to associate lyrics with what we see in the forecast.
Todays Dabuh.com Update Brought to you by Bad Company.

What an amazing run of swell. Hope you scored cause….. She’s Gone Gone Gone……
I Don’t know if I’m Happy……. I Don’t Know if I’m Sad
She’s Gone Gone Gone……
I Don’t Know if I’ll Cry………. I Don’t Know if I’ll Die——> Laughin.

You better get the boys round and do some drinking fast. If you read our last forecast update 5 days ago here comes the period of small for all discussed in that post. Don’t forsake me cause I love you. Give me Silver Blue and Gold, My Rain…… Rainbow is overdue.

Recently we have discussed what makes a good forecaster. A good forecaster always goes back to look at what he/she previously forecast for forecast verification. Some of you are going to say I am putting these two on blast. I’m not, I’m just trying to show you what I have to deal with sometimes.
I appreciate all comments and take any questions. But if you don’t read what we post, or have bad reading comprehension, well ….. I can’t help you with that.

This was our lead image on our social feeds 5 Days ago. The funny part is, in our last You Got Tubed video forecast update we said, “This is the Time of Year We Get Accused of Hype”.
Again not picking on these two but please read. It does for your mind good.

Before we move on here’s a grab from that update. You can read the rest HERE
” So for now until we see something change in the pattern, the call for “Small for All” continues except for standout locations re Mid-Atlc Storm and POSSIBLY but not likely Refracto coming “.

Forecaster Note: Refracto Fired for Palm Bch County verified by Slavetothewave.com

And Mid-Atlc Top Spots scored from Storm.

So whats next ?
Here comes this next incoming system. Wurd On Da Skreet Image for Sunday.
NEW Low Pressure System Moving into the Mid-Atlc Region. Players are on the board.

00Z GFS is trending on split energies. Taking the Southern piece and out flanking the Northern one.
Image below is for Wednesday March 21st

The GFS then takes the Secondary Low and moves it Offshore Friday March 23rd.

Then going into Saturday tightening up. This is the next chance of swell. Again it won’t be for everybody. At least not at the moment looking at the latest forecast models.

Gonna stop here. This keeps the above in a 10 Day Window. There is lots of uncertainty past Sunday. The EURO is currently NOT ON BOARD with a swell producer. That could change though.
This one goes out to “Headline Readers”. Who all they saw when we posted this yesterday is,
DaBuh says it’s a “Major Swell Event Coming” 🙂 Then it doesn’t verify then I get accused of Hype 🙂
Its a vicious circle that sometimes can include Jerks, then it becomes a Circle Jerk LOL.
This was the EURO when it liked the idea. Today not so much.

Latest 96HR Swell Forecast. For those who’ve seen our reference to Newtons 3rd Law.
Now we wait for the return.

Stay Tuned to our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates.
For New Followers, we promote ideas to the upcoming forecast on our social feeds and when we have enough confidence we do a forecast update here on DaBuh.com.
Stay Tuned !!!!