Ex-Don 96L INVEST and Buoy Update

DON has dissipated, victim of Westerly Shear. Swell energy from DON/95L INVEST combined with a combination of Southern Hemi Swell energy, along with High Pressure wind swell out of the North Central Atlantic and is now on the move through the buoy system.

St Martins Buoy this morning. ENE Winds 15-20Kts with current Max Seas around 7 Feet.
Forecaster Note: We will be watching to see what 96L INVEST will add to this Buoy next 48hrs for this weekend.

On the PR Buoy swell height has bounced around from 2 feet up to 5-6 feet this morning out of the ESE at 9 seconds. Longer period pings you see is the Southern Hemi swell energy.

NE Bahama has also come up a couple of feet since this time yesterday into the 4 foot range.
Swell periods a little shorter. 4 Feet ESE around 8 seconds.
Swell energy from what was TD4 also in combination with High Pressure wind swell has finally faded on the East Canaveral Buoy. Buoy has finally dipped under 3 feet.
Thank You TD4. Bump on NE Bahamas Buoy now inbound.
South Hatteras 3 feet with some chopped up mess mixing in some 5 second intervals.
The East Hatteras Buoy showing swell directional change with SSW Swell at around 4 feet.
Latest on 96L INVEST. 96L about to turn itself into the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone’s Sheriff Dept.
Surrounded by dry dusty air 96L INVEST about to get Choked Out.
This is a negative as we really needed the Northern Ext to fire up to increase winds North of the LAT 20 Line. We will see. Thats Ex-DON bottom left. 2017-07-19_063615
The only other thing to note in the upcoming forecast is models hinting at some refreshing NE winds coming up. Latest run of the GFS for week from this Friday. Long ways out but models continue in the last several runs. This with HP wind swell out of the East Atlantic giving us hope in the extended.2017-07-19_064313
EURO for next Thursday

Thats it for now. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.

Although NHC popped a name on 95L INVEST it does not appear to be another name scheduled til after the 1st of August unless Home Grown. Go back up to the GFS and look East of Florida.

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95L INVEST Possible Fun Surf Alert Coming

Heres the next shot at some ride-able surf above waist high. We now have 95L INVEST out in the Central Atlantic. National Hurricane Center placing odd of 40% Chance of development next 5 days. Surfers are reminded we don’t need a named system to produce surf. we need the right pattern and fetch. Some of the best surf has come from no named systems. Chances are we won’t see a named system out of 95 and its almost a certainty what ever becomes of 95L its headed into the Eastern Caribbean where it will likely die. Strong Easterly trades in the Eastern Carib are known to disrupt surface circulation.2017-07-16_181835
Latest NOAA 72HR Surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center is showing some lift in latitude however. This is the time of year where the Northern Extensions of Tropical Waves can enhance ESE Trades.2017-07-16_162103
Latest 72HR Wind Wave Forecast out of the NHC showing Max Seas at 10 Feet around the Eastern Carib. However what we are watching is for the 2ND Wave behind 95L (Area with seas of 8 Feet) as models also give this wave some latitude. 2017-07-16_182524
Latest 96HR Wind Wave Forecast out of NOAA’S OPC. Image is in meters showing seas increasing 10-12 Feet in ESE Swell well East of the Islands.2017-07-16_164514
Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast showing another round of 8-10 second swell periods coming. Also take note of the SSE Swell 13-14 Seconds. Another Rare Southern Hemi Swell looks to penetrate North Atlantic Waters yet Again.2017-07-16_161851
Latest Run of the GFS for winds image is for Thursday. Patch of 30-35KT winds North of the 20 Lat Line. this means the Swell will pass North of PR with the Bahamas and the only source of swell blockage.2017-07-16_163225
So stay tuned for the updates. We will likely add a YouTube  Forecast video update to this post tomorrow so check back for it. As part of our forecast routine we will go into a Buoy Watch starting probably around Tuesday. Follow our Social Feeds for that. Again if you are unfamiliar with how we handle our feeds, everything goes to Twitter first then we share to Insta then FB. We do not always share whats on Twitter however.

We are 2 Weeks away from closing out July of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Chances are increasing that we COULD close out July with 1 Cyclone TD4 and no additional named systems. Have no fear as August is known as the Bunny month as we race towards the Peak of Hurricane Season.2017-07-16_175211
Heres the seasonal activity chart. Sept 10th marks the peak and we are now inside of 60 days.2017-07-16_184222
Stay Tuned

Latest on Ex-TD4 Possible 95L INVEST COMING

Here is the latest on Ex-TD4 North of PR this morning. Youtube video bottom of the post.
Appears broad rotational spin is developing and for the 3rd day in a row convection is re-firing once again. EURO and UK-MET have been hinting at regeneration last several days. Where and when is a mystery at the moment but we are about to solve the puzzle. 2017-07-10_102330
Latest Run of the EURO has it going into the Florida Panhandle Region by day 7. Thats from current position into the Bahamas, across SOFLO, into the Gulf, and into the P-Handle as WEAK area of Low Pressure. NOT A STORM, NOT A HURRICANE. However its all up in the air at the moment.
Next up POSSIBLE 95L INVEST coming. National Hurricane Center giving 20% chance of development next 5 days from a Tropical Wave that has moved off the AFRIKAN Coast.2017-07-10_102831
This mornings visible. Take note of the appearance marked 72HR2017-07-10_103026
National Hurricane Center 72HR Surface Forecast showing Low Pressure lifting NW X Marks the Spot.2017-07-10_103246
00Z GFS Day 5 with DON again.2017-07-10_103424
00Z EURO Day 5 with DUD again. However look into the GULF Ex-TD42017-07-10_103516
Latest 48HR swell forecast 2-4 Feet ESE swell 8-10 seconds.
UNLESS…..this thing gets its act together which is not out of the realm of possibility.
Another Rare Southern Hemi Swell2017-07-10_104022
Latest Youtube video forecast update. Follow us on Twitter for Real-Time Updates. We put it all there first then share over to Insta then Fakebook.

Latest on TD#4 Another Shot at Don

Heres the latest on TD#4. TD#4 Official forecast out of the National Hurricane Center is for dissipation over the next several days. We are at the cross over portion of the forecast, the “Fork in the Road for those who’ve seen our reference where all the environmental conditions this system has been fighting the system gets away and into a somewhat better environment.2017-07-07_153210
NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast showing Post Tropical Cyclone 4.2017-07-07_153433
Latest NOAA Wind Wave forecast showing Seas Increasing into the 10-12 foot range next 96hrs Image is in Meters.2017-07-07_153612
Latest Swell Forecast is showing 8-10 Second ESE Periods Developing and the North EQUAT Buoy is showing increasing swell heights into the 6 foot range starting so looks like a decent bump MAY BE coming. Follow us on our social feeds. We will go into a buoy watch next 48hrs.2017-07-07_153833
Latest Video Update Check this post for updates for updates on Possible Regeneration over the next day or so.

94L INVEST POSSIBLE 1st Hurricane Atlantic 2017 Season

We now have 94L INVEST. Chances are increasing over the next 24-48 hours that 94L becomes Tropical Storm Don (Dahn). We are now calling for Possible Surf Alert coming with a Possible Major Swell Event. Some uncertainty is starting to work its way into the forecast however.
Heres this afternoons look at NEWLY designated 94L INVEST.2017-07-03_125459
We did not get a chance to discuss this in our video. We don’t edit our videos so sometimes we leave stuff out accidentally we originally wanted to discuss. If you have been following the models there is no coincidence of the small circle you see NNE of PR . This is exactly the area to which the models bring 94L Possible Dahn. From there there are a few players on the board that bring us to pause on any out to sea solution. YES, that is likely the solution out to sea. However the TUTT Low over the Florida Keys may play a role in the eventual track of this system. Right now its wait until it comes out of the hole and gets N of PR.2017-07-03_130302
And thats if it does get N of PR. We think based on imagery there is an outside chance this gets South of PR and into the Eastern Carib. From there it could die or come across Hispan into the Bahamas. Its an outside chance. But one thing experience tells us is to not discount anything this early in the game. 2017-07-03_131659
Latest 72HR Wind Wave Forecast showing seas increasing into Double Digits setting up the Possible Surf Alert portions of the U.S. East Coast.2017-07-03_084700
Latest Video Update

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Chances Increasing Atlantic Tropical Development

We are 2 days away from closing the books on the month of June of the 2017 Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasons. Eastern Pacific has gone one up on the Atlantic with the recent formation of Hurricane DOR-ruh. DOR-ruh becomes the first hurricane for either basin. Thus far the Atlantic has kept pace with the EPAC but will close out the month with the C name Tropical Storm SIN-dee, which is where we left off of our last website update. Decided to make an impromptu road trip with Buh-ette for her first road trip chasing Tropical Storm Swell. 1st time she surfed outside her backyard.
We are now back out in front of the forecast. Is the Atlantic’s 1st Hurricane of the season lurking ?

Special shout out to Brenda Mitchell Photography of BMP Sports.
2017-06-28_105322And Adam Hutchinson of Adam Hutchinson Photography for the Shots. This trip was right on time for Fathers Day and I couldn’t be more proud to be a father to this young Lady.2017-06-28_105656
We will be stepping up our updates over the coming week. 4th of July Holiday is clear for now.
Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates and back here at the site for the forecast.
Latest Video Update. Surfers stay tuned still trying to dial everything in.

00Z EURO Day 10
Stay Tuned

Latest on 92 and 93L INVEST Possible BRET and SIN-dee

Since our last update 2 days ago the area we have been monitoring in the Western Caribbean has now been tagged 93L INVEST. This image was from earlier this morning posted to our social feeds.2017-06-18_071953
This is the NEW surface forecast map out of the National Hurricane Center next 48HRS. It matches up well with our image above.2017-06-18_165656
National Hurricane Center 72HR forecast shows Possible BRET/SIN-dee heading for the NW Gulf of Mexico.2017-06-18_170004
This is the afternoon run of the GFS and is used as an Outlier.2017-06-18_170139Overnight tonight will be revealing as the majority of bulk energy South of the Western Cuba will pinwheel into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.2017-06-18_120711
All residents from Texas to the Florida Big Bend she closely monitor this system starting tomorrow morning. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates. We will have another video update on this system tomorrow.

Heres 92L INVEST there is the chance this could become BRET first this means if we see development in the Gulf of Mexico that system would be named SIN-dee.

Latest Forecast Video Update.

NEWLY Tagged 92L INVEST Gulf of Mexico

Heres the latest forecast update. We now have NEWLY Tagged 92L INVEST out in the East Atlantic. National Hurricane Center now giving odds of 40% next 5 days. It is of no immediate worry. However what is is the area coming out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. No designation has been given to this system as of this update despite that it is at 60% Chance of development next 5 days.2017-06-16_115822
There is lots of uncertainty with this system however things are becoming a little clearer and it does still appear headed for the Western Gulf. Regardless of name or no name weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain.

In the video below the 12Z had not run yet. So mind you what was discussed in the video was before 12Z ran. 12Z GFS trying to make it look like I know what I’m talking about.
Image is for Monday June 19th with DEEP Tropical Moisture lifting into Florida.2017-06-16_120223
Later Monday the GFS CONTINUES to try and draw a “2nd piece of energy” up to the Florida Pan Handle. As POSSIBLE Bret.
Could see Bret SIN-dee or Both2017-06-16_121301
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Heres the floater in Real-Time on 92L INVEST



Monitoring Southern Caribbean Tropical Low Development

Long week ahead as we are now in the Real-Time phase of where we left off of our last forecast video update posted 6 days ago. In it, there were several things we discussed. One, that we would be looking for a repeat performance of what we just saw with BEE-a-triz in the EPAC.

We now have 3-E, the 3rd Tropical Depression of the 2017 EPAC Season. Outside chance of seeing KAL-vin but with no matter. Weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. Heavy rains, life threatening conditions with potential for mud slide anticipated for much of Central Amerika into Mexico over the next week. Models have consistently shown, run after run, low pressure development in the Gulf of Hondura now just inside of 7 days. While the image is still, the flow is from right to left across your screen. 2017-06-12_064447
It appears the last piece of energy responsible for spin up giving rise to a possible Tropical Cyclone coming to the Western Gulf of Mexico, is the last of 3 T-Waves located in the Eastern Caribbean. Current NHC surface analysis, emphasis mine.

If you look back at the satellite image above, the T-Wave just SW of the Cape Verde Islands is separated from Eastern Caribbean T-Wave. There is another wave behind the current Afrikan Wave pushing off the West Afrikan Coast. These two waves are coming across the MDR in tandem. 2017-06-12_075718
The month of June on average, sees a Tropical Cyclone 1 every other year. 2016 saw 3, BONNIE, COLIN and DANIELLE. This coming weekend will be the 1 yr anniversary of DANIELLE and at the same time we will be watching for possible development coming out of the Carib. Sometimes weather repeats itself.

If we look at Climatology for 2nd week of June for origin points of Tropical Cyclones, the pattern is clear. When spin develops in the Gulf of Hondura, the majority of track is a straight lift through the YUKE Channel, then off to the right in a natural flow. Then notice the 3 tracks leading into the Bay of Campeche. Rarely when spin develops in the GOH, does it cross over the YUKE into the BOC.
There are two different patterns that create these tracks.

When the GFS was first hinting at Tropical Development, run after run it showed the direct lift into the Gulf through the YUKE Channel matching Climo. Then, when EURO finally came on board in the 10 day window, it started the shift to the West and to a weaker system. The EURO now has a model track into the Bay of Campeche, the other track historical shows.

The difference between the two tracks is this. The straight lifting is what we describe as a “Hooking Pattern.” It is an EPAC energy lifting North, getting sucked up and “Hooking Up” with the front, just like we saw with BEE-a-triz. The other is a Northern Extension or Center Axis of a Tropical Wave moving through the Caribbean. First creating spin in the Southern Caribbean (not always), near Costa Rica. Then “Rounding the Corner”, into the Gulf of Hondura. This typically leads to a more NW track as flow is already established from East to West then High Pressure builds into the Atlantic and pushes it the rest of the way.
Here is an example of “Hooking Pattern”.2017-06-12_085726Here’s an example of T-Wave Rounding the Corner. This now looks to be what the models are showing for possible development this coming weekend.2017-06-12_090328
Looking at this image below you can see how the contour of the land can help facilitate spin once an area of Low Pressure gets in either one of these two basins. What is also unique is the depth of the ocean in the GOH. This can provide “Deep Ocean Content” when the waters finally warm up enough to support Tropical Development.
This is the latest run of the GFS for this Sunday June 18th showing Low Pressure developing in the Gulf of Hondura. The one commonality of the models over the last 5 days or so has been Low Pressure development in this location. Going back to climatology above the odds are stacked in its favor.2017-06-12_064755
00Z EURO also Next Sunday. This is inside of 7 Days where model confidence begins to increase.2017-06-12_093719
We will leave this update right here for now. Will add a FRESH forecast video update to this post shortly, so be sure to check back for it, as our focus down wind could shift to whats coming in the 10 Day EURO. The two Tropical Waves traveling in tandem mentioned above, one may have a chance at development once past the 50/60 Long Line.
Check back for the video forecast update and our follow us on our social platforms for Real-Time Updates.

POSSIBLE Surf Alert Mid-ATLC -NE Tropics Heating Up

Possible Surf Alert coming for Mid Atlantic through New England Breaks with this Low pulling out of the Gulf. East Florida could see a decent shot coming. Have gone into a Buoy Watch. NE Winds are cranking from the Texas Tower Buoy (Off New Jersey) through the Cape. As of report time (10AM EST) Texas Tower NE 15-20Kts. Nantucket Buoy NNE Winds 20-25Kts gust to 30 and inside Boston Buoy NE 25-30Kts gust to near 35 with light NE Fetch into Cape May. There is also a GALE/Developing Storm near Newfoundland headed for the NATLC also putting a charge of NE Swell in the water.

Latest Surface Analysis NOAA OPC2017-06-06_100608
The Low coming out of the GULF is the Wild Card for East Florida. Models track it up and out of the way fairly quickly and close to the coast both negatives for swell production along with SW flow SE quad.
The further off the coast more NE Winds over the ocean and the slower it moves giving duration is one thing we will be looking at. The other wild card might be because it clears quickly it may allow more NE energy to sneak in towards Florida from GALE  that is currently East of Newfoundland in the image above.

This is the Outer Waters Marine Forecast  for South of the 31 Line. Have seen it change 10 times in two days.   2017-06-06_101637
Notice the time difference from above. 2017-06-06_102041
AMZ 111 showing some NE swell trying to pass through this zone.2017-06-06_102542
Then it looks like a possible repeat performance coming in re to Tropical Development coming to the GOMEX in the extended forecast. Go with our latest video forecast update for now. Best watched in full screen.

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