KAYT Busted Forecast

There is a saying in forecast that is nothing in weather is absolute until it happens in Real-Time. It now appears that all though the swell periods will be there from the NE wrap the size will not. Strong offshore Westerly winds now forecast to move off the Mid-Atlantic behind KAYT which will essentially  blow her swell back out to sea. Only ones with surf alert looks to possibly Mid-Atlantic on up through the NE as the storm pulls away but offshores come in and kill it quickly. We alluded to it in our last forecast update and the kicker is this from the NHC

TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       
400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
One significant change on this cycle is that
the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show
Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic
in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical
low.  Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours,
showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic
on days 3-5.

With KAYT close to hurricane strength this afternoon I’d say dominant is a given.

Thats ok though because it looks like one more coming to close out November next 10-14 days. Already eye ballin and we could see LAR-REE coming up in the extended forecast.  Because of the aforementioned change  like she was moving East of Florida an Eastside weighted system, she will be again as she bends out past Nova Scotia and two become 1. The original forecast was for energy/remnants of what was 93L INVEST that moved through the Pah Handle yesterday would be the dominant feature. So there you have it nothing in weather absolute until it happens in Real-Time.

Here’s this afternoons look and the updated forecast. Start you off on Thursday and the 12Z GFS. Thats KAYT on the right.2015-11-10_132404
Thursday late classic Double Barrel Low. Gone is the longer oblong NE Fetch aimed at Florida from what models where showing us the other day. Winds have now lightened along the Mid-Atalnticup into the NE Coast so looks like Thursday is cleanup.
2015-11-10_132210Before the blast on Friday and strong offshores. This is likely to blow what swell that was headed for PR past it. Florida here’s where things get interesting once again as Northerly Flow and return High pressure.2015-11-10_132244Saturday return Northerly flow begins and High pressure begins shifting back out into the Atlantic setting up the pattern for what could eventually become LAR-REE.
2015-11-10_132302GOMEX Fans dont talk alot about you but first time this year GFS showing strong Southerly Suck-Up coming behind a potent Low moving through. As it transitions through may see some thing trying to spin up East of the Bahamas after. Image a week out.2015-11-10_134224Here’s the latest 96hr Swell forecast confirming the bust you can see 13 seconds into SOFLO but not enough swell and the strong offshores cutting off the swell source from the Mid Atlantic.2015-11-10_134619We do our best to be optimistic about our forecast. Sometimes it just happens like that.
Stay tuned for the next update. We are going into a buoy watch just in case once the storm matures in about 72 hours. Stay tuned

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TD #12 Tropical Cyclone KAYT ?

We now have TD #12 forecast to become Tropical Cyclone KAYT later today East of the Florida Coast. This is the point where we said in or last update where things look to get interesting and this COULD be the kick starter for a “November to Remember”. First things first though. The Easterly Trade swell we thought would come in over the weekend really never made it past the South Bermuda Bouy. Thats ok as  Northerly surge behind the front is showing up nicely on the East Canav Bouy this morning. Swell has rotated from ESE to ENE-NE around 6 FEET at 11 seconds.2015-11-09_051030
The negative at the moment is the latest 36HR National Hurricane Center wind wave forecast showing a weighted East side storm with Southerly winds developing 35-45Kts just to the East of this buoy. This will squash any NE Swell trying to work through. So what ever is between the buoy now, and the Florida East Coast, is what you get for now with a good shot at long period groundswell coming towards the end of the week. There is an excellent shot at SURF ALERT for the 2015 Redbull Night Riders Contest at the Jacksonville Beach Pier. Check your local wind forecast as you can see light NW wind barbs along the coast. Keep in mind that the surf over the next couple of days is not from TD #12/KAYT, it’s swell from the Northerly surge behind the front.2015-11-09_051504Ok so what happens from here. Partial energy from 93L INVEST that was down in the Bay of C a few days has moved up with the front and is moving up across the Florida Pan Handle this morning. This is the feature that gave those guys a little bump over the weekend. This will become the dominant feature as it hits the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday with TD#12/KAYT getting sucked up in the wake. There is a quick Sou’Easter working it’s way up from the OBX into New England as the transition begins however looks to be short lived so not quite sure how much surf will be created for this region because of a quick turnaround but should be Surf Alert for standout locations. Check your local forecast.2015-11-09_054235Here’s the 00Z of the GFS depicting well the satellite image above with a 1014 Low near the Florida Pan Handle. Should still be a wave here as Dauphin Island Bouy N winds 15-20 Kts and the P-Cola buoy SSW winds 15-20Kts. Strong pinched ESE gradient into the OBX. For those on the other side of the pond look at the tight packed gradient NE of Newfoundland. 15-18 second periods heading your way and will reach all the way down into West Afrika.2015-11-09_055251Heres the GFS at 36HRS again matching the NHC wind wave forecast posted above with TD#12 East of Florida. You can see the Southerly fetch working it’s way up from the Bahamas into ESE into NY with the Low currently over the Pan Handle working it’s way into the Atlantic.2015-11-09_060144Then on Wednesday both consolidate. Thats TD #12 on the right side of this and the Pan Handle Low on the left becoming the dominant feature. 2015-11-09_060643Let the NE wrap begin. Latest Swell forecast at 48-72HRS showing developing storm, image above, and leading edge of the NE wrap.2015-11-08_180910And going into Thursday NE Groundswell 10-12 seconds working its way down the coast. There are a couple variables here that we are still looking into and that is the speed in which the storm heads East along with Max Seas and intensity and the next incoming system. We will be looking into that later this morning and will do another update later today. Models WERE  showing the next system moving off the East Coast with stiff offshores knocking the swell down quickly but looks like they are backing down away from that meaning the swell could stick around a bit longer so stay tuned for the next update. Check out the long distant NW Swell heading for our friends at Surf Camp NGOR in Senegal. Nazare has been firing and looks to keep doing so and as always Luck of the Irish.2015-11-09_061601As a teaser and take this with a grain of salt as it is one run of many more to come and is 13 days out. However it’s the mere fact that the GFS shows a Tropical Cyclone this late in the season tells us something. That the pattern continues to suggest a “November to Remember” is still coming.2015-11-09_063404Spread Da Wurd
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Pattern Setting Up for November to Remember

We continue in an active phase. We have gone into a buoy watch mode this morning as High Pressure begins to shift out in the Atlantic towards the East away from Bermuda. This is setting up an a predominant Easterly Flow coming out of the East Atlantic. Here’s the latest wind conditions on the buoys as of around 10AM.2015-10-20_045620Latest 48hr Wind Wave forecast out of the National Hurricane showing large area of seas 8-10 feet developing under the High as it shifts. There is a possible Fun Surf Alert setting up for portions of the SE U.S. Coast pre front. Image is for Sunday and you can see light Southerly winds forecast along the coast.2015-11-06_104432Then here comes the Big Blow and things get very interesting late Sunday into Monday with NE winds cranking up behind the front 25-30Kts off the SE U.S. Coast with seas increasing 10-12 feet. This will be on top of the Easterly swell coming from the High pressure shift mentioned above. What you see over in the Bay of Campeche is what the NHC is currently giving a 20% chance over the next 5 days. Regardless of Tropical Development strong winds and high seas are forecast as a GALE develops.2015-11-06_105239There is no out to sea option for what ever comes out of the Bay of C Western Gomex and a Super Soaker could setup as the area of Low Pressure rides the front towards the Northern Pan Handle. Still some uncertainty image is for Saturday showing the front tapping into GOMEX moisture with wide spread rains from TX through the OBX. Red arrow is the front.2015-11-06_110611From here is where things get interesting. Models have been trending on weak low pressure riding up the front at the same time Low Pressure moving into or near the Central Bahamas. This is the area NHC is currently giving a 30% chance of development out SE of PR Image is for Tuesday.2015-11-06_065804Here’s the 7AM update2015-11-06_111528This image from earlier this morning so you can see the players are on the board.2015-11-06_075212The EURO then combines low pressure  Thursday and lifts what could become Tropical Cyclone Kayt NE away from the Central Bahamas in a JOAQUIN like track leaving behind a piece of energy in the NW Gulf.2015-11-06_111849Then by Saturday, week from tomorrow, unleashes a 970MB BOMB that would produce a MASSIVE Swell in the North Central Atlantic if the model holds true. Weight and Sea.2015-11-06_072918Keep in mind there is already a MASSIVE one forecast now for the otherside of the pond and the NE Atlantic. 96HR swell forecast showing large area of WSW swell 12-13 seconds with 15-18 seconds developing.2015-11-06_112639This behind what is now forecast to be a Sub 960MB Hurricane Force Low developing SW of Greenland and headed for the other side. So this is what we’ve been referring to in our social media feeds as the Atlantic about to bust wide open and November setting up to be one to remember.2015-11-06_112938Thats it for now please check back for the next update. We will be stepping up the post on our social feeds so follow us on FB Twitter and the Gram by clicking the icons located here on our site. Thanks

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POSSIBLE Surf Alert Setting Up Big Blow Coming

Good shot at a POSSIBLE Surf Alert coming at one point or another for the majority of the U.S. East Coast. Still plenty of time to watch and there will be tweaks in the upcoming forecast as this event starts to take shape. So if it doesn’t happen for your location remember yours is not the only one. Since our last update we now have two shaded areas designated by the National Hurricane Center. Both are the ones discussed in our previous forecast update. The one North of PR came on last night at 7PM and the one with the yellow X came on this morning at the 7AM update. No changes have been made as of the 1PM update. Models have been split and have been on again off again on tropical development. We don’t need a named system to produce surf. In fact, Winter Swell season has no names for storms but yet this is when the biggest oceans swells are produced.2015-11-05_073659Speaking of which a big one is about to develop in the North Atlantic sending a large volume of water headed for the other side of the pond. Area of Low pressure currently located in the North Central U.S. is heading for the North Atlantic over the next couple of days.2015-11-05_141307Latest GFS showing a Sub 970MB Storm developing SW of the tip of Greenland on Sunday. This combined with a Mega High 1030MB over the AZORES will produce a wide tight WSW pressure gradient aimed at the NE Atlantic. Swell models already showing 15 second periods developing and headed that way. Will likely provide a separate update on this system once it gets closer to maturation in about another 24 hours or so. So if you have interest in this storm check back for the updates.2015-11-05_141925Back over to this side of the pond. High pressure South of Nova Scotia will begin to settle off towards the ESE. This is increasing ENE fetch currently over the South and Paul West Bermuda Buoys. Both buoys reporting ENE winds 20-25Kts as of report time.  You can see the two areas we are monitoring. Whats on the Paul West and South Bermuda buoys hopefully gets here before the Big Blow Coming.2015-11-05_145711Here’s the latest 72 hour wind wave forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. As the current High in the above image settles towards the ESE this will increase a lengthy wide ESE fetch of winds 20Kts with a large area of seas 8-10 Feet. Take note though of the SC coast with the wind barb showing NE winds at 30Kts. That looks to be the start of the Big Blow as the next front approaches.2015-11-05_151345Timing of the front will be the tell tale of whether or not East Florida surfers get a little tune up Saturday before the blow. Latest GFS for Sunday showing another Mega High moving in towards the Mid Atlantic with NNE winds cranking up from Nova Scotia down into North Florida and then again ramping up in the NW Gulf of Mexico. This will provide two swell sources for the U.S. East Coast.2015-11-05_152136Then on Monday the area of Low pressure in the NW Gulf is forecast to ride up the front to the NE and be in the Georgia NE Fla waters as the Mega High enters the Atlantic.
2015-11-05_152142Then on Tuesday the coastal low heads up towards the OBX and the Low that is currently East of the Islands GFS moves it near the Central Bahamas again increasing ESE Fetch.2015-11-05_152205Models continue to tweak each run so we will hold it here for now. Previous runs showed a stronger coastal Low riding up towards the OBX giving hope for offshore winds as it departed. As of the most recent run lots of uncertainty remains in the wind forecast. There is some agreement between both 12Z Runs of the GFS and EURO. 12Z EURO now showing a closed Low near the Central Bahamas same location as the GFS above.2015-11-05_153423Weight and Sea. We will be going into a buoy watch later tonight and through tomorrow looking for some prefrontal surf before the big blow commences so be sure to check back in for the breakdown and the latest forecast updates as this event begins to take shape. Stay Tuned.

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Entering Active Phase POSSIBLE Late Season Tropical Cyclone

It appears we are entering an active phase with an extended period of ride-able surf coming, all be it onshore and windy for some. We are monitoring 3 areas. A developing storm in the NATLC, a Tropical Wave near the Dominican Republic and another Tropical Wave moving off the West Afrikan Coast. There is potential for development of both of these waves and we could eventually see a late season Tropical Cyclone in the Western GOMEX as the wave near the Dominican Republic, pushes West and interacts with the tail end of the next front late this weekend in the Bay of Campeche. The other wave. off the Afrikan Coast. is forecast to also continue to push West with an unseasonable amount of moisture setting up a POSSIBLE Tropical Cyclone North of PR in about 7 days.

Start you off with the Big Picture. Only thing not mentioned above is the weak low East of the OBX. The stronger low mentioned for here in our previous forecast has failed to materialize as the previous TX low stalled out over Georgia and looks to dissipate as next front approaches. Still have an eye off the OBX as High pressure begins to shift out into the Atlantic over the next several days.2015-11-03_112221The NATLC Storm will get some NNW Swell 12-13 second swell periods going for the East Atlantic over the next 24-48 hours. You can see Northerly Swell pushing past Newfoundland. High pressure forecast to drop into the Atlantic from Nova Scotia. This should set up PR and Islands with a moderate Northerly Swell. The negative is the  Easterly winds developing North of the Islands as the week progresses. Swell looks to reach West Afrika by this weekend. The brown and yellow currently reaching the West Afrikan coast is the tail end of the current swell event that made Navare go off the last several days2015-11-03_112728This is the current swell forecast for Saturday and you can  see the longer periods beginning to develop on the backside of Bermuda as Northerly wind flow develops over the next couple of days as high pressure shifts out into the Atlantic.2015-11-03_113928It will be this weekend when things look to begin to really crank up as another High behind the next front moves in setting up another BIG BLOW. Image below is the 12Z GFS for Monday showing a Mega High 1030MB in the East Atlantic and another over the TN Valley. NE winds 20-25Kts from the OBX down into Florida with long fetch ESE winds coming out of the Central Atlantic. Notice the shaded area over PR. Thats the Tropical Wave currently off the West Afrikan Coast. Also take note of the shading down in the Bay of Campeche. The EURO likes it GFS does not. EURO will be out shortly. Also take note of the top portion of the image. MASSIVE Westerly Swell setting up for the NE Atlantic.2015-11-03_114601Then by next Tuesday the current run of the GFS develops area of Low pressure North of PR with high pressure stacked. Thats alot of Easterly flow into the OBX down into East Florida and over to Texas. Waves for Days.2015-11-03_115602Here’s what last nights EURO looks like showing weak Low pressure coming out of the Bay of Campeche similar to the GFS above for Sunday. The EURO does not currently show any development North of PR but we are waiting to see the afternoon run. Plenty of time to watch.2015-11-03_072734Stay tuned for the next update. Would be nice to see something develop at the same time of record heat for Florida. Maybe waters will stay warm a bit longer. Stay Tuned

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Low Moving Out of Texas Towards the OBX

We apologize for the non post as of late. We have begun monitoring for an area of Low Pressure forecast to move out from Texas across the Southern States and up towards and off the OBX during the upcoming forecast period. This is the time of year we go into reverse from Tropical Season. Instead of watching Lows cross the Atlantic from East to West we now watch them move across the U.S. and out into the Atlantic. Think Lows moving across Afrika into the Atlantic but in reverse. You have to wait to see them get over water to see how they setup and pay close attention to the models inside of 96 Hours. IR from earlier this morning.2015-10-30_083858Latest 72-96 hour surface forecast out of the OPC showing a slight Southerly track to just South of the OBX before drifting out away from the coast a bit.2015-10-30_094835Latest wind forecast setting it up Monday into Tuesday just ESE of the OBX with a decent fetch of NE winds that could help produce a POSSIBLE Fun Surf Alert coming. Remember nothing in weather is absolute until it happens in Real-Time.2015-10-30_112552This low prior to hitting the Atlantic should also provide a decent Southerly suckup for North Gulf waters. Latest out of the National Hurricane Center showing seas increasing along the Texas coast to 10 feet next 24.2015-10-30_121356And the Southerly fetch rotating into the Florida Pan Handle next 48 seas 4-6 Feet.2015-10-30_121540Long term going into the second week of November back to back runs of the GFS continues to suggest a late season Tropical Cyclone NE of PR. The EURO is just starting to hint at it again long ways out but the pattern is setting up for the possibility.2015-10-30_114624This will likely move up out of the Southern Caribbean and is not the Tropical Wave currently West of the Cape Verdes. NHC currently giving that system a 10% chance of development next 5 days.2015-10-30_122612
Stay tuned for the next update. We will be stepping them up over the weekend so be sure to check back for the very latest.

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Low Pressure Out Near PR Western GOMEX ?

Two years ago 2013 during this same week this was the setup. We were watching newly tagged 90L INVEST and an area just North of the Island. 90 later went on to become Tropical Cyclone LORENZO. ZO lifted North then NE into the North ATLC and although not a big swell producer for us here in the states it’s remnants went on to become the trigger mechanism for the UK’s St Jude Storm. The storm did not have as much impact as the 1987 storm however many deaths were attributed to it. 2015-10-21_071303Here what it looks like this morning same location. Which is beginning to look identical. By no means are we suggesting another St Jude Storm but it is becoming eerily similar.
FORECASTER NOTE: Everything in life is about waves, it comes in it. Radio Waves leads to Sound Waves and when you mix in Tropical Waves that lead to surf  life can be good when surrounded by the right waves. Check out the open wave as a POSSIBLE  secondary low may develop upcoming forecast.2015-10-22_055850Last nights run of the GFS takes the remnants of this Low, which by the way still has a legitimate shot at becoming Tropical or Sub Tropical Cyclone KAYT and wraps it up into a 969MB Hurricane Force Low West of the UK in about 72-96 hours. There is another area of Low Pressure over the NE U.S. out bound for the ATLC that looks to combine with the remnants of which again will likely be the trigger mechanism just like we saw in 2013. This will set up huge swell for the East ATLC.  You can see the secondary Low mentioned above just to the East of Bermuda left hand portion of the image.2015-10-22_061836Latest East Atlantic Swell forecast showing long period groundswell developing.2015-10-22_063618And the 96HR WW showing seas increasing to 13 METERS next 96 or Excess 40 Feet. We will continue to monitor this developing system and will have another update on this tomorrow.2015-10-22_063838Back state side. There is a possible FUN Surf Alert setting up. You can compare sat image above to the latest 24hr surface map out of the National Hurricane Center. Depends on how much NE gradient and fetch increases over Bermuda as the low lifts North. Hopefully it will put some longer periods in the water.2015-10-22_053456It is here Saturday where the FUN Surf Alert sets up. Secondary Low develops  backside of Bermuda. Remnants of current Low getting absorbed into Low East of Newfoundland. Long fetch NE Winds aimed at PR in through the Bahamas and over to SOFLO.2015-10-22_064520Sunday Low taking shape backside of Bermuda NE winds 35-40KTS but now look atthe NNE gradient cranking up in the NATLC. So thats wrap around East of New Foundland with High pressurea guiding it into backside Bermuda Low.2015-10-22_064539Then later Sunday Hurricane Force Low  NE ATLAC with the Bermuda Low ready to make a fast exit off towards the NE. Take Note of NW Gulf.2015-10-22_064604Monday a possible quick storm in the NW GULF. Residents along the Texas coast should closely monitor the forecast leading into the weekend.2015-10-22_065533Pushed for time this morning. Check back for the next update which will be tomorrow.

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Low Pressure North of PR

We continue to monitor the area out near PR for Low Pressure Development. Update from last forecast, will scale back down from POSSIBLE Major Swell Event, back to Significant Swell Event. Although models have backed off Tropical Cyclone Development it can not be ruled out at this time. It’s just that time of year and the synoptic pattern is set for it. The front is beginning to settle and the tail end is becoming established out near the Central Bahamas. The general flow from Western Cuba out towards PR is from the West to East.2015-10-20_113735It’s out further East where we are watching. If you have followed our updates and watched our  video update we’ve been talking about a small area East of the Island of PR. Around the 2 minute mark of that video update.2015-10-20_114558Latest 72HR surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center now on board showing Low pressure NNW of PR. If you look at the above visible satellite imagery you can see it coming together. The forecast is for it to lift NNE as a developing storm. This goes back to our first update when we mentioned this as a POSSIBLE No Name Storm. Image is for Friday showing Low leaving towards the NE away from PR.2015-10-20_111154
Here’s what it looks like in the current swell forecast. Obviously if the flip gets switched and a Tropical Cyclone does develop swell forecast will change. The NE green 10-12 seconds is what has been and continues to be mainly from AZORES Low mentioned in our updates.2015-10-20_112435Afternoon model runs are coming out will likely update this post later on today so be sure to check back for it later this afternoon or evening for the update. Winds look to start backing down along the Florida Coast Thursday into Friday although they look to remain onshore. Will also take a closer look at the wind forecast later on today as this event begins to unfold. This is an early morning look at the IR showing lots of potential.2015-10-20_084608Either way it looks like we are in an active phase likely until the first week of November as models begin to tren back on development coming out of the GOMEX with the next associated front to come sweeping through. 97E  has now become TD 20E. This system is forecast to ride the coast towards the NW and the front coming could sweep the remnants back into the Western GOMEX with another similar setup like we just went through. And yes maybe another Big High pressure Blow coming. 2015-10-20_095810Stay Tuned for the Update

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POSSIBLE Major Swell Event Cyclone KAYT ?

Here’s a follow up to yesterdays post. Satellite imagery and synoptic pattern suggest that we may be in the early stages of Tropical Cyclone formation North of PR in about 3-4 days. We are seeing key signals in the latest imagery. Rule of thumb during Tropical Season, always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of low pressure to spin up. especially at the end of the season. The front is finally pushing through. Bottom left Central Bahamas. There are multiple spins in the atmosphere. The flow is towards the East.2015-10-18_121230This was an early morning IR image. You can see the pattern is there. As we advertised a few days ago models want to take partial energy of two tropical waves and develop low pressure North of PR we are now in that Real-Time Phase.2015-10-18_072452Last nights run of the GFS likes the idea. Developing Tropical Cyclone KAYT towards the end of the week. Image is for Saturday. Subscribers are reminded one run of many more to come.2015-10-18_123948Then on Sunday turns it NW towards the OBX. This is not the first time the model has suggested this before backing away from the idea. Have not seen the afternoon runs yet. EURO doesn’t like it. We do though as there are signs everywhere.2015-10-18_123955One of the key indicators something may try to BREW up is when this floater moves position and what location it affixes itself to. Thats the Bahamas bottom left corner.2015-10-18_124605
Here’s the video update

Stay tuned for the next update

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POSSIBLE Major Swell Event

Subscribers are reminded we do our best to provide you with the most accurate and optimistic forecast. Nay Sayers need not subscribe. If you are visiting our site and forecast for the first time we are primarily focused on boat, beach, marine, wind and surf forecast which is our forte. We are now in the Real-Time Phase of the “Big Blow Coming Significant Swell Event” advertised here on DaBuh.com and in our social media feeds. The synoptic pattern and recent model trends suggest the “Significant Swell Event” portion of the forecast is now upgraded to a DaBuh.com POSSIBLE Major Swell Event. This is when a storm system produces seas in excess of 25 Feet and groundswell that affects the majority of the surf community with large surf conditions.  In winter although there are many instances of Hurricane Force Lows in the NATLC producing seas in excess of up to 35-40 FEET, not all qualify for DaBuh.com Major Swell Event Status.

We continue to monitor two areas. The area we’ve been monitoring for over in the Western GOMEX has now been upgraded to 92L INVEST. National Hurricane Center currently at 20% Chance of Development next 5 days. The thinking has been since day one when we tweeted to @Bobbistorm on Twitter on October 8th 9 days ago that the system would lift N-NW-W into Mexico.2015-10-08_172547The change in the thinking came the other day when the EURO came on board on showed development in the Northern Gulf. The likely track would have carried it to the East and North East. It now appears that 92L INVEST will likely lift North NW and into Texas.2015-10-17_082425There are uncertainties with this as Phillip Klotzbach CSU tweeted a few days ago, “Since 1878 (when reasonably complete US landfall records began), no tropical cyclone forming after 10/13 has ever impacted TX as a hurricane”
Currently models have backed of any development of a possible hurricane from this system however recent model trends moves this area of disturbed weather around the TEX/MEX rim of the GULF. For now we watch.

The other area we’ve been monitoring in our updates is partial energy from some late season tropical waves over in the Central Atlantic and the current synoptic pattern here. For those who follow us on our social media feeds there remains an outside shot a two tropical systems. One in the Gulf and one North of PR however it appears the one with the best shot is the area we will be monitoring for North of PR as a Possible Major Swell Event.2015-10-17_092829Last Nights run of the GFS for next Saturday 10-24 showing a Tropical Cyclone ESE of the OBX and 92L INVEST moving into the TEX/MEX border as an area of disturbed weather our possibly a Tropical Storm. This is one run of many more to come. There will be changes. As stated in our last update it’s understanding the model trends and then comparing the Real-Time satellite imagery and data to see the potential. 2015-10-17_031015The players are on the board and chances are increasing for a Major Swell Event coming up in the upcoming forecast period. If the above run was to verify the latest wind wave swell forecast for the above image would be seas in excess 25 Feet in NNE Groundswell 12-15 seconds qualifying for a DaBuh.com Major Swell Event. For now we are in a Weight and Sea mode and will continue to analyze the most recent data over the next several days so stay tuned in for the latest.2015-10-17_035017For the Nay Sayers on the two storm scenario. We currently have KOPPU and CHAMPI in the West Pacific. Ex-Nora and OLAF near Hawaii and the possibility of KAYT and LAIR-REE over on the Atlantic Side so don’t think two can’t develop in close proximity. KOPPU has strengthened to Super Typhoon and prayers go out to the people of the Philippines our home country and to the first responders and all workers of relief agencies involved after the storm passes. KOPPU could slow to a crawl after landfall which could lead to devastating impacts as this would prolong the event.2015-10-17_062142We are also monitoring what has now become Tropical Storm OLAF for a Large Island Swell Event.2015-10-17_055326
Will likely do a separate update. Image for next Saturday showing OLAF East of the Hawaiian Islands with Blue Roofs 1028 MB HIGH stacked should lead to large ocean swell impacting the Islands.2015-10-17_055552For now Big Blow Coming now underway. As of report time Frying Pan Shoals North winds 20-25KTS. In our last update we showed you this with two Northerly Swell Sources one from AZORES LOW and the Northerly Flow off the U.S. East Coast.2015-10-14_053551Forecast verification now showing in the latest 96 Hour Swell Forecast out of the OPC. NE Groundswell 10-13 seconds from AZORES LOW Northerly Wind swell 8-10 Seconds developing off the U.S. East Coast. Think what will happen if a Hurricane develops ESE of the OBX on top of this.2015-10-17_105743Stay tuned. It’s why we watch and you follow. Spread Da Wurd by sharing our forecast.

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